Even during a hurricane season expected to be less active, Florida State University experts say Floridians should prepare early, stay alert and avoid focusing too narrowly on storm categories or forecast cones.
During a media briefing Wednesday ahead of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, FSU researchers and emergency management specialists discussed the issues communities continue to face, from rapid coastal growth and rising insurance pressures to the expanding role of artificial intelligence in disaster response.
Here are five key takeaways from the discussion:
1. It only takes one storm
Several experts cautioned against letting seasonal forecasts create a false sense of security.
“It’s the landfalling hurricanes that matter, not the number of hurricanes per season, in terms of human impacts, for the most part,” said Mark Bourassa, a professor in FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies. “If it hits you, it’s bad. It’s something that you do have to be aware of the whole time.”
David Merrick, director of FSU’s Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program and the Center for Disaster Risk Policy, said one quiet season does not eliminate the risk of a devastating storm, pointing to the destruction left by Hurricane Andrew when it made landfall in South Florida in 1992.
“Hurricane Andrew was the first storm of that season,” Merrick said. “It does not take 20 storms. It just takes the one.”
2. Being outside the forecast cone does not guarantee safety
Experts also warned residents not to focus too narrowly on a storm’s forecast track.
Merrick noted that dangerous impacts such as tornadoes, flooding and wind damage can occur far outside the center of a storm.
“Those impacts can go a long way inland,” he said. “They can go left and right of the cone.”
He emphasized that communities outside the projected path can still experience significant damage and disruptions. And as a hurricane develops, the forecast track can move, bringing the center of the storm to communities that only expected minor impacts. Bourassa also pointed to warming ocean temperatures as an area researchers are watching closely, particularly along Florida’s Gulf Coast.
“We’re a little bit more nervous about the temperatures rising and seeing intensity changes as the hurricanes come right onshore,” Bourassa said.
3. Florida’s rapid coastal growth is increasing risk
Dennis Smith, planner in residence in FSU’s Department of Urban and Regional Planning, said Florida’s population growth continues to place more people and property in vulnerable coastal areas.
“The issue hasn’t gotten better in the last 30 years,” Smith said. “We have more people who are living in areas that are at the highest risk.”
Smith said communities are increasingly being forced to think beyond individual homes and consider broader infrastructure needs such as drainage systems, roads and public facilities.
“We have a lot more in our built environment than simply our residential structures,” he said.
The discussion also highlighted how insurance availability is intertwined with planning and development decisions.
“Insurance drives housing availability, and so it becomes a planning issue,” Smith said.
4. Resilient construction and mitigation efforts can make a difference
Patricia Born, the Payne H. and Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management and Insurance at FSU’s Herbert Wertheim College of Business, said Florida’s insurance market appears stronger than it did several years ago, partly because of a quieter storm season and improving reinsurance conditions.
But she said long-term stability will depend on reducing losses through mitigation and resilience efforts.
“One way to control insurance costs is to try to control the losses themselves,” Born said.
Newer buildings are often more resilient than older structures, but insurers still face challenges gathering accurate information about homes and upgrades.
“Some houses that are very old have had roofs replaced two or three times, and they may be much more resilient than an insurance company thinks,” Born said.
She said improving data about construction quality, inspections and mitigation measures could help insurers better understand risk and expand coverage options across the state.
5. Artificial intelligence is beginning to change disaster response
FSU researchers also discussed how artificial intelligence and remote sensing technology are beginning to reshape emergency management and disaster recovery efforts.
Merrick said researchers are exploring how AI tools can help emergency managers make faster decisions, improve damage assessments and allocate resources more efficiently after disasters.
“Emergency managers almost universally are like, yes, we want this tool,” Merrick said.
Still, he said the technology remains in an early stage and raises important questions about accuracy and ethics.
“There’s also an almost universal concern about what happens when the answer that the algorithm or the AI gives is wrong,” Merrick said.
Smith said researchers are also studying how drones, LiDAR imagery and AI analysis could help communities identify infrastructure weaknesses before storms strike.
“I think we’re going to see a trend to begin to integrate that into risk assessment and mitigation planning on the front end,” Smith said.
Visit the FSU News website for a full list of FSU hurricane experts who are available to speak with the media.