A Florida State University retail expert says early holiday sales will be a key test of consumer affordability from now leading into Black Friday.

Carl-Philip Ahlbom, an assistant professor and Dr. Persis E. Rockwood Emerging Scholar, has expectations that holiday consumer spending will surge above last year’s record-breaking total. Adobe’s online shopping forecast for the 2026 holiday season predicts a record-setting $275.1 billion in consumer spending, nearly a 7% growth compared to 2025.

However, Ahlbom notes that if early holiday sales fall flat, it could signal deepening worries Americans have on two of the country’s biggest issues: affordability and inflation.

“The next several weeks, particularly the period leading into Black Friday and Thanksgiving, will be the major test of how the quarter performs,” Ahlbom said. “I expect consumers will open their wallets for the holidays as they usually do. However, if early promotions and Black Friday sales fall short, it could signal a deeper affordability problem that retailers cannot solve on their own.”

Ahlbom, who is based out of the Rockwood School of Marketing at FSU’s Herbert Wertheim College of Business, conducts research in three key areas: retailing, services marketing and healthcare marketing. With Oct. 1 marking the start of Q4, the crucial three-month financial period that runs from October through December, major retailers like Amazon, Target, Best Buy, Walmart and more are ramping up their holiday promotions even earlier to navigate consumer spending shifts.

Ahlbom notes that if early holiday sales leading into Black Friday disappoint, the bigger retailers are better positioned to absorb those losses. It could also benefit price-conscious consumers who would likely be introduced to better deals.

“Retailers would likely introduce steeper discounts earlier in the run-up to Christmas,” Ahlbom said if early holiday sales are slow. “That may benefit some consumers, but it would put additional pressure on an already sensitive industry. Retailers must get their messaging, pricing and forecasts right, which gives large companies such as Amazon and Walmart an advantage because their AI capabilities and forecasting models are generally stronger than those of smaller competitors.”

Media interested in covering how early holiday sales provide an important barometer for consumer affordability may reach out to Ahlbom via email at c.p.ahlbom@wertheim.fsu.edu. He is readily available to handle interview requests.

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Carl-Philip Ahlbom, Assistant Professor, Florida State University

When it comes to holiday shopping, we’re always focusing on those prime months of November and December. But as Q4 begins at the start of October, how effective do you think pushing up earlier holiday promotions has been for retailers?

“I think earlier holiday promotions have been successful, particularly because they help retailers spread demand across a longer period. They may not generate dramatically higher total sales, some consumers are simply making purchases earlier that they otherwise would have made later, but they provide meaningful operational benefits. Extending the shopping season makes it easier for retailers to manage inventory, fulfillment and delivery rather than concentrating everything around Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas. Consumers also seem comfortable shopping earlier, as the timing of events such as Prime Day and similar promotions from Walmart demonstrates. For retailers, especially major online sellers that continue to grow, moving promotions into October can ease the traditional holiday crunch while encouraging people to begin their seasonal shopping sooner.”

For consumers shopping in Q4, what separates a truly effective holiday promotion from deals that can be considered more of a trap for overspending?

“From a consumer’s perspective, most deals promoted during special shopping events are not necessarily the best prices of the year. Price trackers can provide useful context, but even a retailer’s own tracking tool may not show the lowest price available elsewhere. Smart shoppers should focus on items they have already been watching and whose typical prices they know. If one of those products is discounted by 20% or 30%, it may be a worthwhile purchase. By contrast, products that appear prominently while browsing online or in stores are often placed there because they are profitable for the retailer, not necessarily because they offer the greatest value. The safest opportunities are often broad, storewide or sitewide discounts, such as 20% or 30% off, because they can reduce the prices of products that rarely receive individual markdowns.”

In what ways are retailers utilizing AI to benefit their own strategy?

“Retailers have used AI and machine learning for years, particularly to set and adjust prices online. Amazon, for example, changes prices millions of times each day; some of those prices may be personalized, while others respond to differences between forecasting models and actual sales. AI also supports behind-the-scenes operations and logistics. What is becoming more visible to consumers is hyper-personalized marketing. Retailers can tailor advertisements, product descriptions and other copy to an individual’s browsing or purchase history, meaning the information I see for a product such as a computer monitor may differ from what someone else sees. These increasingly personalized messages are designed to make products feel more relevant and ultimately encourage purchases.”