The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, underscoring the important role large-scale climate patterns play in hurricane development and the challenges scientists face in forecasting seasonal activity.
Since the season began on June 1, no hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic Ocean, although there have been several tropical storms. In a typical season, the first hurricane tends to form by early to mid-August, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Allison Wing, an associate professor in Florida State University’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, studies atmospheric dynamics, with an emphasis on tropical cyclones and tropical convection.
The strong El Niño climate pattern now in place is a major contributor to the quiet Atlantic hurricane season, she said. The pattern produces stronger vertical wind shear, or changes in wind speed and direction at different altitudes, creating less favorable conditions for tropical cyclones.
“Vertical wind shear is bad for hurricanes,” Wing said. “It makes it harder for them to form, harder for them to intensify.”
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a recurring pattern of changing ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures influence rainfall and cloud development, which in turn affect atmospheric circulation around the world.
Although El Niño and its cooler counterpart, La Niña, significantly influence hurricane activity, other atmospheric and oceanic conditions also help determine how active a season ultimately becomes. Research continues to improve seasonal hurricane forecasting, but predicting activity remains a challenge.
For example, La Niña conditions briefly formed in late 2025 and lasted until early 2026 before the current El Niño pattern emerged.
“That speaks to the complexity of all the different factors that control hurricane activity,” Wing said. “While ENSO is a big factor, it’s not the only factor.”
Even in a quiet season, a single storm can cause major damage, a message that is especially important for Florida residents.
“Destructive storms can still develop late in the season,” Wing said. “Even in a quiet season, it only takes one hurricane to have a devastating impact. You should take the same preparations regardless of the seasonal forecast.”
Media interested in interviewing Wing about this year’s hurricane season can contact her at awing@fsu.edu.