Florida State University researchers will use new funding from the National Science Foundation to investigate mechanisms that drive wildfire spread.
Professor of meteorology Ming Cai; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute (GFDI) director and professor of scientific computing Kevin Speer; associate professor of scientific computing Bryan Quaife; and Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science research faculty Jie Sun are part of a multi-institution team awarded a three-year, nearly $900,000 NSF grant to explore how atmospheric factors influence wildfires and to improve emergency responses by developing computer models and simulations of wildfires.
“Wildfires, which are becoming more intense and destructive, threaten lives, properties and air quality,” said Cai, the study’s principal investigator. “By identifying key environmental factors that influence rapid fire spread, we can provide evidence-based guidance for wildfire suppression and prescribed fire operations. This work will improve fire management strategies, reduce risks to communities, and enhance air quality forecasting, benefiting both emergency responders and the public.”
WHY IT MATTERS
As one of today’s most pressing environmental challenges, wildfires pose hazards to human and ecological health and cost the U.S. between $394 and $893 billion annually, according to the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
Historically, wildfires were viewed as wholly destructive, and land managers suppressed all instances of fire, which resulted in a decades-long buildup of wildland fuels such as fallen leaves, dense shrubbery and timber litter. Since the mid-20th century, land managers have increasingly turned to prescribed burns as an integral fire management and mitigation tool as excess natural fuels and climate change lengthen and intensify fire seasons.
To inform emergency forecasting and prescribed fire techniques, the team’s research aims to better predict interactions between plumes — the distinctive columns of smoke, embers, and ash rising from wildfires — and atmospheric wind density currents, which are kept in motion by gravity as dense air sinks. The Santa Ana winds are an example of such density currents and can approach near hurricane speeds, exacerbating emergencies like the Palisades Fire in January in California.
“The recent Los Angeles fires in January 2025 underscore the urgency of this issue, with related economic damages estimated at $135-150 billion,” Quaife said. “Wildfires pose major challenges due to the complex interaction between manmade and natural fuels, atmospheric conditions such as the Santa Ana winds, changes to Earth’s climate, and growing populations in areas directly adjacent to fire-prone areas. Plumes are the primary transport mechanism for smoke and embers through complex environments, yet many aspects of plumes are not understood.”
HOW IT WORKS
When exploring how the plume-density current relationship produces critical implications for wildfire spread, the researchers are also accounting for environmental factors such as vertically sheared crossflows — winds that blow in different directions at different heights — in addition to atmospheric stratification — how the atmosphere is layered based on temperature and density — and topography.
“Fundamental questions we seek to answer include how far plumes can carry embers before they land, spreading fire in a process called spotting,” Cai said. “We are also interested in how the combined effects of fire intensity, atmospheric stratification and crossflow speed determine a plume’s ceiling, transitioning the distribution of smoke from vertical to horizontal and affecting the geographic reach of air quality concerns.”
Through their combined expertise in scientific computing — using computers to answer scientific questions — and meteorology, researchers will conduct high-resolution simulations coupled with ember transport models, enhancing the predictive capabilities for fire spread.
A LEGACY OF RESEARCH INTO FIRE DYNAMICS
Established in 1967, FSU’s GFDI is a global leader in the study of fluid dynamics — how the continuous circulation of liquids and gases influences Earth’s oceans and atmosphere. This wildfire research stems from GFDI’s Fire Dynamics program, which is distinguished from traditional engineering and forestry programs in the U.S. for its focus on fundamental fluid dynamics and fire science.
“As wildfires become more frequent and severe, understanding the complex interactions among fire, the atmosphere and smoke plumes is crucial for public health, safety and emergency responses,” Sun said. “This NSF funding enables us to collaborate with experts across disciplines, leverage advanced numerical simulations and generate insights that ultimately help communities better prepare for and respond to wildfire events.”
Additional collaborators on this project include David Schvartzman from the University of Oklahoma and Jielun Sun from NorthWest Research Associates.
To learn more about GFDI and fire dynamics research, visit gfdi.fsu.edu. For more information on meteorology research in the FSU Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, go to eoas.fsu.edu. Visit sc.fsu.edu to learn more about scientific computing research and the FSU Department of Scientific Computing.