Florida State University, through FSU Health, has awarded $250,000 to the five inaugural recipients of its Clinical Catalyst Grant Program, an initiative that brings together FSU researchers and local clinical providers to address healthcare challenges through collaborative projects. 

“Clinical Catalyst creates an exciting opportunity for our research teams to join forces with local clinical providers and accelerate progress on some of the most urgent issues affecting patient care in our community,” said Vice President for Research Stacey S. Patterson.  

FSU launched Clinical Catalyst to give clinicians an opportunity to share ideas for addressing healthcare needs identified through their daily work. The program also supports the broader goals of FSU Health by bringing additional resources and opportunities to healthcare in the region. 

The 2025-2026 Clinical Catalyst awardees are: 

• Accessible and Engaging Non-Pharmacologic Management of Chronic Pain Combining Music Therapy and Brain Stimulation: Kevin Johnson from the FSU College of Medicine and his team are partnering with Dr. Gilbert Chandler from Tallahassee Orthopedic Clinic to explore a promising, non-drug approach to chronic musculoskeletal pain by combining music therapy with Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation. 

• Building a New Care Pathway: ICAN-Guided Nutrition Support for Aging Adults in Clinical Settings: Julia Sheffler at the FSU College of Medicine and a multidisciplinary team of nutrition and exercise experts are collaborating with Dr. Cielo Rose from Capital Health Plan’s Nancy Van Vessem Center for Healthy Aging to build a structured nutrition and lifestyle program designed to better support older adults in clinical settings. 

• Feasibility, Acceptability, and Preliminary Efficacy of Vagus Nerve Stimulation for Stroke Aphasia: Sladjana Lukic from the FSU School of Communication Science and Disorders, in partnership with Dr. Narlin Beaty at Tallahassee Neurological Clinic, is exploring an innovative approach that could help stroke survivors regain language abilities by reactivating critical neural networks. 

• Redesigning Post-Mastectomy Bras: Investigating Design Innovations to Reduce Seroma and Hematoma Formation and Enhance Patient Satisfaction: Jessica Ridgway Clayton from the FSU Jim Moran College of Entrepreneurship is working with Dr. Shlermine Everidge from TMH Physician Partners, to develop improved bras for mastectomy patients to support recovery, improve comfort and enhance patient satisfaction. 

• Increasing the Uptake of Advanced Care Directives in Hospital and Clinical Settings: Miles Taylor from the FSU Pepper Institute on Aging and Public Policy, in collaboration with Dr. R. Kelley Myers from the Tallahassee Memorial Family Medicine Residency Program, aims to make end-of-life planning easier and more accessible for patients and families while helping reduce unnecessary medical treatments and costs. 

“These projects reflect the strength of interdisciplinary collaboration at FSU and our shared commitment to delivering innovative ideas that can make a meaningful difference in clinical practice and patient outcomes,” Patterson said.  

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FSU Health brings together researchers, clinicians and local clinical partners under one umbrella to transform health and healthcare in Florida. To learn more about FSU Health, visit  fsuhealth.fsu.edu. 

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Florida State University physicists are part of a team that has discovered unusual superconducting states in parts of graphene, with the potential to drive unexpected quantum technologies.

Assistant Professor of Physics Cyprian Lewandowski and postdoctoral researcher Phong Võ Tiến are part of an international collaboration that has uncovered new aspects of superconductivity and topology in rhombohedral graphene, a system comprising just a few layers of carbon atoms stacked like the treads of a staircase shape known as chiral stacking. The work was published in Nature Physics.

“The rhombohedral graphene system seems to capture many of the intriguing electronic phenomena that scientists have seen previously in other atomically thin systems, but they were previously not as ideal for technical applications due to the intrinsic complexity of the devices or replicability issues,” Lewandowski said. “In physics, once we identify a generic phenomenon, we try to distill it to its essential form to understand the underlying mechanism. This rhombohedral system allows us to do that. We’ve identified the natural occurrence of this effect and can build upon and optimize it to achieve properties only before seen in more complicated systems.”

Atomically thin flakes of rhombohedral graphene can be isolated from naturally occurring graphite crystals. In this structure, at a low energy, electrons are localized almost exclusively onto specific atoms on the top and bottom surfaces. By contrast, very little charge resides in the bulk of the material.

Congregating a large density of electrons onto the outer surfaces leads to interesting emergent quantum properties, as charges are forced to collectively “make choices” about how they reside on the surfaces while simultaneously repelling each other. The team found that superconductivity emerges directly from this dual-surface configuration, where electron and hole carriers on opposite surfaces conspire to form a superconducting state.

Collaborating on impactful science

FSU was joined in the collaboration by experimentalist teams led by co-principal investigators Matthew Yankowitz, associate professor of physics at the University of Washington in Seattle, and Joshua Folk, professor of physics at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, Canada. Together, the team combined material and structure assembly expertise required to build highly sensitive and optimized electronic devices, measurement expertise to probe ultra-sensitive superconducting states that emerged from them, and theoretical expertise to turn experimental data into a coherent understanding of superconductivity in this novel platform.

“An added complexity of this system is that negative and positive charges coexist,” Yankowitz said.  “On one surface, the charges are electrons and therefore negatively charged. On the other surface, they behave like particles called holes, which are effectively positive. This work is advancing our fundamental understanding of the interplay of strongly correlated and topological phases, which could be an avenue toward the development of future quantum technologies.”

In addition to superconductivity, the team observed a quantum anomalous Hall effect — a topological state in which an electrical current flows without resistance along the edges of the material.

“Cyprian is applying his brilliant theoretical insights to cutting-edge problems in the science of quantum materials,” said Mike Shatruk, director of the FSU Initiative in Quantum Science and Engineering. “If the two phenomena of superconducting behavior and topological states can eventually be made to co-exist, theory predicts appearance of so-called Majorana zero modes, which are candidate building blocks for fault-tolerant quantum computing; they’re inherently protected from local noise and decoherence that destroy quantum information.”

Next-generation quantum devices

One of the team’s guiding goals is to eventually translate the research into the realm of quantum engineering for the development of next-generation devices and detectors. Another significant aspect of the system is that there are two electronic layers of charges separated vertically, a geometry that previously had to be manually constructed. Discovering such material states that occur naturally can lead to exciting new avenues in fundamental physics and potential technological applications.

“In the 20th century, scientists gained a lot of our modern understanding of condensed-matter physics and phase transitions by working with helium, and I would argue that rhombohedral graphene may be serving the same purpose here in teaching us about unique crystalline phases of matter,” said Lewandowski, who utilizes the FSU Research Computing Center and the National Science Foundation-funded, FSU-headquartered National High Magnetic Field Laboratory in his work.

This research was supported by funding from the U.S. Army Research Office, the U.S. Department of Energy, NSF and FSU. Other contributors include scientists from the National Institute for Materials Science in Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan.

Visit the FSU Department of Physics website to learn more about Lewandowski’s work and research. For more details on quantum science and engineering at FSU, visit the FSU Quantum Initiative website.

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Florida State University research published today in Science Advances demonstrates a new framework for predicting the motion of kilometer-scale underwater waves that complicate satellite readings of the ocean.

By accurately modeling these subsurface waves, scientists can remove their interference from NASA’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography, or SWOT, satellite, improving the satellite’s signal and allowing for observations of the Earth’s ocean circulation that are about 60 percent more accurate.

“SWOT is giving us the clearest view we have ever had of the ocean’s fine-scale circulation, the small eddies and currents that govern how much heat and carbon the ocean draws down from the atmosphere,” said study lead author Yadidya Badarvada, a researcher at FSU’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies who completed the work at FSU and while a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Michigan. “But those measurements have been partially obscured by internal tides, which mimic the very features we are trying to observe. What this work shows is that the interference we assumed was too chaotic to fix is actually predictable, once you have a model that accurately tracks the evolving ocean state.”

How it works

The SWOT satellite orbits Earth more than 500 miles above the planet’s surface.

Jointly operated by NASA and the French space agency CNES, this satellite observes the surface of the ocean, rivers and lakes to provide high-resolution data used by meteorologists, oceanographers, hydrologists and other scientists. SWOT imaging helps answer questions about the path of rivers, the aftermath of tsunamis and other water features on the planet’s surface.

But finding the ground truth on the planet from the sky can be difficult. Complicating SWOT’s readings over the ocean are internal tides traveling beneath the ocean surface, whose signals overlap with the very features scientists are trying to observe.

Known as internal tides, these underwater waves have historically been the major challenge for measuring sea surface height. These “non-phase-locked” internal tides did not appear to have a predictable pattern, and researchers thought their interference was too chaotic to be corrected using standard statistical or sensing tools.

What they did

To solve this problem, the researchers developed a new framework based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, or HYCOM, a three-dimensional depiction of the ocean state at fine resolution in real time. This existing, operational U.S. Navy ocean forecast system is the result of decades of development from researchers across institutions, including FSU’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies.

HYCOM works by continuously combining a physics-based simulation of the ocean with a real-time stream of observational data, a technique called data assimilation. Every day, the model takes in measurements from orbiting satellites that track sea surface height and temperature, robotic floats that drift through the ocean interior measuring temperature and salinity at depth, moored buoys and ship-based instruments. The model uses all of this incoming information to constantly correct its simulation, keeping it as close to the true state of the ocean as possible.

Because HYCOM explicitly simulates the forces that drive tides, including their interaction with seafloor ridges and seamounts, the internal tide field emerges directly from the model’s own ocean physics rather than being estimated separately.

By separating HYCOM’s internal tide predictions into predictable and chaotic components, the team could identify and remove both from SWOT’s measurements. Because SWOT data were never fed into HYCOM, the comparison was a genuine independent test. The result was a 59 percent improvement over the best correction method currently applied to the satellite.

Why it matters

The improved model could help SWOT provide a more accurate picture of the ocean’s surface and currents, which are crucial to our understanding of how the ocean functions. Without accurately observing them from space, scientists cannot track the ocean’s capacity to buffer rising temperatures or verify the models used to project future warming. The work has applications in forecasting, navigation, infrastructure planning and more.

“We can’t deploy buoys across the entire globe to take measurements,” Badarvada said. “The information from SWOT fills a huge gap in our understanding of the physics and dynamics that govern the ocean and how it transports heat and nutrients on a massive scale. We used a model the Navy built to navigate the ocean and ended up giving NASA’s most advanced ocean satellite significantly clearer eyes. That kind of unexpected overlap between defense science and Earth observation is exactly what this project has been about.”

Researchers from the University of Michigan, Oregon State University, Naval Research Laboratory, University of Southern Mississippi, and the French company CLS Group were co-authors on this study. This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research, NASA and the French space agency CNES.

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Signaling immense esteem for his innovative work as a longtime real estate finance scholar, the American Real Estate Society (ARES) recently awarded Florida State University’s G. Stacy Sirmans with the annual James A. Graaskamp Award, one of the academic association’s highest career honors.

“There are a lot of people who would qualify for that award, so I was very honored and surprised to receive it,” said Sirmans, the J. Harold and Barbara M. Chastain Eminent Scholar in Real Estate at FSU’s Herbert Wertheim College of Business.

But Sirmans’ academic colleagues – both down the hall and across the nation – are not surprised by his selection. They say Sirman’s accomplishments embody the academic association’s intention for the award: honoring scholars with research advancements that redefine thinking within the discipline.

“Stacy is widely recognized for his influential contributions to real estate finance, housing economics, mortgage markets and property valuation. His work has shaped the foundation of the field and continues to inform both academic research and professional practice,” said Henry J. Munneke, the Roy Adams Dorsey Distinguished Chair in Real Estate and an associate dean at the University of Georgia’s Terry College of Business.

Advancing the field with relevant research

From his early work co-authoring seminal research on rampant assumption financing among home buyers to more recent studies analyzing the effect of climate-change beliefs on risk pricing in the marketplace, Sirmans’ work often breaks new ground. The knowledge he generates then provides insights other scholars rely on as they further examine real estate implications.

“Our job is to create and establish theories and then create the empirical work to support those, to prove them or disprove them, and then eventually that filters into business,” said Sirmans, who also has served as the academic director of the FSU Real Estate Center. “Our job basically is to answer unanswered questions.”

Among Sirmans’ significant co-authored research contributions over the years:

• Climate-change opinions, disaster risk and single-family housing price growth (2025)
• Agree to disagree: NAV dispersion in REITs (2025)
• The role of tenant characteristics in retail cap rate variation (2022)
• The capitalization of insurance premiums in house prices (2015)
• Determinants of house prices: A quantile regression approach (2008)
• The value of housing characteristics: A meta-analysis (2006)
• The composition of hedonic pricing models (2005)
• The effect of anchor tenant loss on shopping center rents (1994)
• The historical perspective of real estate returns (1987)
• Assumption financing and selling price of single-family homes (1983)

Sirmans’ persistent productivity outpaces most others in his field. He recently secured the No. 16 place worldwide among real estate scholars who have published the greatest amount of research in the top three real estate journals over the past five years, as determined by the annual Real Estate Academic Leadership Rankings in the Journal of Real Estate Literature. He ranked in the Top 10 several times in previous years for research productivity on this and other lists, rising to No. 7 globally. His successes play a large part in FSU’s real estate faculty this year placing No. 2 among faculties worldwide for its volume of research in top-tier journals.

Sirmans has forged a “remarkable career of consistent and innovative research output,” said Mariya Letdin, Kyle Riva Associate Professor of Real Estate and a colleague of Sirmans at the Wertheim College. She hailed his “outsized contributions” in hedonic house pricing models, residential mortgages and, more recently, real estate investment trusts, and said his “continued enthusiasm and productivity are truly unique in the field.”

Additionally, his breadth of work has been cited thousands of times by real estate researchers and includes foundational papers for the core real estate areas of housing markets, brokerage and finance, said colleague Tingyu Zhou, FSU’s Dean and Kathy Gatzlaff Associate Professor of Real Estate. Along with the Graaskamp Award, Sirmans received, in 2017, the ARES David Ricardo Medal, given to a thought leader with an extensive record of publications in top journals that have also influenced new research, teaching, public policy and practice.

“These are among the highest honors in the field and reflect the lasting influence of his research,” Zhou said.

Sirmans also received top research honors from his Wertheim College peers across different disciplines, earning the college’s 2023 Distinguished Faculty Research Award and 2019 Outstanding Senior Faculty Research Award. He has also been instrumental in building the college’s Top 10 national standings in real estate, teaching a senior-level finance course in the undergraduate real estate program, which ranks No. 6 among public schools, and a graduate-level finance course for the MBA real estate specialization, which ranks No. 8 among public MBA programs with a real estate specialty.

Known as a scholar and a gentleman

What sets Sirmans apart from many other accomplished scholars, most said, is his collaborative spirit and generosity.

“Stacy is the consummate colleague,” said Dean Gatzlaff, professor emeritus of real estate and namesake of Zhou’s associate professorship who worked with Sirmans for more than 30 years. “He’s approachable, he’s collegial, he’s willing to listen, and he’s careful with his advice. He has always been incredibly supportive of the program’s initiatives and the work of other faculty.”

Zhou said colleagues turn to Sirmans for “conceptual clarity,” saying, “He has a rare ability to take an early-stage idea, identify the core economic question, and position it in a way that leads to a clear and publishable contribution in top journals.”

Letdin called Sirmans the “ultimate team player,” always game to review papers, chair committees, mentor all levels of students or pick up guests at the airport. “He is always happy to pitch in, and no task is too big or too small for him to offer help,” she said.

This kind support extends beyond Florida State University.

Justin Benefield, the Thomas H. Lowder Endowed Chair in Real Estate and professor of finance at Auburn University’s Raymond J. Harbert College of Business, first met Sirmans by chance in 2003, when they both boarded an airport shuttle in San Jose, Calif., headed to the same event more than an hour away in Monterey. At the time, Sirmans had already developed a glowing reputation as a well-respected real estate scholar, and Benefield had just begun his academic career. Enroute to his first-ever academic conference, Benefield focused on preparations to present his first-ever academic paper.

“Needless to say, I was nervous,” Benefield said. “Stacy spent the entire ride engaging me in conversation, giving me advice, distracting me and generally putting me at ease. He then showed up at my presentation the next morning. He had no reason to spend that much time on a nervous doctoral student from the backwoods of Alabama, but he did; and I am only one on a long list of folks with similar stories.”

Sirmans said while growing up, he never dreamed of becoming a university professor. One of 10 children raised on a farm in the small town of Pearson in Southeast Georgia, he said his hard work began at an early age.

“There were five of us still at home – small kids – when our father passed away. So, our mother basically raised us,” he said. “The main thing it taught me was how to work, and so I sort of carried that through with everything I do. You started a job, started early, finished late. If something broke, you didn’t have the resources to just call somebody and fix it. You figured out how to fix it.”

Sirmans said this tenacity has served him well throughout his life, especially as he tackled advanced degrees.

“I started college and didn’t apply myself, so I did not do very well initially. But I couldn’t quit, because you don’t quit,” Sirmans said. After earning bachelor’s and master’s degrees in business at Valdosta State University, Sirmans headed to the University of Georgia for his Ph.D. in finance.

“That first year almost killed me,” he said, but – again – giving up was not an option for him. “So, I just kept going, and all worked out perfectly. I’m in the perfect occupation. This is exactly the place that I needed to be.” Sirmans taught at Emory and Clemson universities and served as a visiting scholar to the former Federal Home Loan Bank Board before choosing to join FSU’s faculty ranks 36 years ago.

Shaped by a legacy of collaboration 

Sirmans credits much of his good fortune to the company he keeps. “One thing that helped me a lot growing up, and through all matter of circumstances, was always hanging around people who were smarter than me,” he said.

His older brother, the late scholar C.F. Sirmans, became his primary role model. The two first collaborated as teenagers, earning money by playing in a popular band that traveled throughout the Southeast, featuring Stacy on keyboards and C.F. on guitar. As time went on, keeping the band intact meant wherever C.F. moved, Stacy soon followed. C.F. became the first to pursue an academic career; Stacy eventually joined him at the University of Georgia, and then both ascended to the top ranks of world-class real estate finance scholars. The pair continued to co-author research studies until two years ago when C.F., by then serving as professor emeritus at FSU, passed away.

These days, Stacy Sirmans finds opportunities to collaborate on research studies with another family member – his son, Stace Sirmans – who serves on the finance faculty at Auburn University. Stacy Sirmans also continues to play keyboards. His band, The Bushmen, plays set lists of mostly classic rock with select country standards. The group plays private parties, including an occasional academic conference when it is held near the Atlantic Coast. Sirmans devotes the rest of his free time to his family, including six grandkids living in Tallahassee or Auburn.

After more than four decades teaching and researching, mostly in Tallahassee, the FSU scholar cannot imagine a better vocation or workplace. He praises the strengths of his faculty colleagues and said he appreciates the ongoing Wertheim College administration’s support and especially the new opportunities for all made possible by the recent $65 million philanthropic investment by Dr. Herbert Wertheim and the newly opened Herbert Wertheim Center for Business Excellence, the college’s $160 million home facility.

Staying true to his steadfast spirit, Sirmans said he has no plans to retire any time soon.

“Oh, I still enjoy it immensely,” he said about his academic responsibilities. “Well, I don’t even call it work.”

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A Florida State University faculty member has been recognized for his continued service to a national professional organization focused on the study of polymers, substances found in everything from plastics to spiderwebs.

Justin Kennemur, a professor in the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, has been awarded the 2026 Distinguished Service Award from the American Chemical Society’s Division of Polymer Chemistry, or POLY, for his service to the division, including his elected role as secretary from January 2023 to December 2025. He is the first faculty member from FSU to receive the award.

“I feel incredibly humbled to have earned this award,” Kennemur said. “It takes a village for POLY to operate at the level it does. I’d be remiss if I didn’t share this award with all of the active people in POLY who contribute to its mission, vision and goals.”

POLY is the premier professional organization promoting polymer science and its value to society. The organization supports thousands of members advancing the broader field and practitioners as they meet the global challenges of today and tomorrow by connecting them to peers through conferences, workshops and educational opportunities to share their research and progress the field of polymer chemistry. The Distinguished Service Award recognizes a member of the organization whose service and professional accomplishments have made a significant and lasting impact on POLY.

“This organization serves as a melting pot by which students, industry scientists, government workers, and academics in the field of polymer science can collaborate, learn and create a network of like-minded professionals to encourage the growth of polymer research,” Kennemur said. “We work toward a common vision of promoting polymer science and its values to society.”

Polymers are found in a range of man-made and natural materials from rubbers and textiles to tree bark and tentacles. They’re composed of macromolecules, large molecules made up of repeating structures of basic chemical building blocks known as monomers. Kennemur’s research focuses on constructing complex chemical compounds using polymeric materials, such as those found in plastics and elastomers, to develop innovative materials for clean energy technologies like fuel cells and sustainable alternatives to conventional plastics.

“Both synthetic and natural polymers are everywhere, and we can see their impact within every facet of industry,” Kennemur said. “Construction, transportation, outer space exploration, not to mention skin, hair, feathers, wood: any material that isn’t a mineral or a metal is likely a polymer. Even your DNA is a polymer.”

The Kennemur Research Group takes inspiration from organic chemistry concepts in the natural world, like complex polymers found naturally in starch or collagen, to develop synthetic techniques that advance polymer chemistry, especially in the development of sustainable plastics that can be reused and recycled more effectively. Kennemur previously created eco-friendly plastics from pine sap, a more renewable material than the crude oil typically used to manufacture synthetic plastic. He intends to synthesize novel polymers to build even more sustainable materials, further minimizing the impact of single-use plastics.

“Make no mistake — plastics have revolutionized society in many positive ways, but we have become too complacent in using them once and throwing them out without a clear path toward their reuse,” Kennemur said. “We need more sustainable solutions so we can go back to appreciating plastics for the fantastic materials they are with less environmental pollution and potential health impacts.”

Kennemur received his doctorate in chemistry from North Carolina State University in 2010 before completing postdoctoral polymer research at the University of Minnesota, Twin Cities. He joined FSU’s faculty in the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry in 2014, and he remains a member of the American Chemical Society with specific involvement in its Division of Polymeric Materials: Science and Engineering as well as POLY.

“Dr. Kennemur is a star and an emerging leader in polymer chemistry who has made a name for himself through his innovative research,” said Wei Yang, chair of the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry and a professor of biochemistry. “He’s also an outstanding teacher of organic chemistry and a great graduate mentor.”

Since joining FSU’s faculty, Kennemur has earned the William R. Jones Outstanding Mentor Award from the Florida Education Fund and the FSU Developing Scholar Award, and his research has been funded by institutions such as the U.S. Department of Energy, the National Science Foundation, and the ACS Petroleum Research Fund. In May, he was elected an associate member of the Academy of Science, Engineering and Medicine of Florida.

Visit the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry website to learn more about Kennemur’s work and research.

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Seven distinguished faculty members from Florida State University have been elected as new members of the Academy of Science, Engineering and Medicine of Florida (ASEMFL).

Membership in ASEMFL is one of the highest honors for scholars in the state, recognizing researchers who live and work in Florida and have made outstanding contributions to science, engineering and medicine nationally and globally. FSU now has 38 elected faculty members of the organization, including President Richard McCullough.

“This recognition of seven of our faculty members underscores the world-class caliber of research and scholarship taking place at Florida State University,” McCullough said. “Election to ASEMFL is a testament to their dedication, innovation, and profound impact on their respective fields. From pioneering advancements in magnetics and particle physics to revolutionary breakthroughs in healthcare technology, quantum materials, dyslexia research, and anxiety treatment, these scholars embody FSU’s commitment to academic excellence and societal impact.”

The newly elected FSU members are:

• Kathleen Amm: Amm is director of the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory (National MagLab), headquartered at FSU. An FSU alumna, she is an expert in superconductivity and
  magnet technology with more than 20 years of experience leading industrial and national laboratory programs, including prior leadership at GE Research and Brookhaven National Laboratory. Her work focuses on high magnetic field science and engineering with applications in medical and energy.
• Suvranu De: De serves as the Google Endowed Dean for the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering and is a professor of mechanical engineering. His pioneering research focuses on multiscale modeling, virtual reality for healthcare, noninvasive neuroimaging and artificial intelligence. He is an elected fellow of multiple professional societies, including the American Society of Mechanical Engineers and the American Institute for Medical and Biological Engineering.
• Jorge Piekarewicz: Piekarewicz is a a Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor in the Department of Physics whose research centers on the behavior of nuclear matter under extreme conditions of density. His work bridges the gap between terrestrial experiments and astronomical observations, using physical observables to understand the complex interior and properties of neutron stars.
• Harrison Prosper: Prosper is the Kirby W. Kemper Endowed Professor of Physics and a Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor. He is internationally recognized for his contributions to high-energy physics, particularly through his work with the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment at CERN’s Large Hadron Collider. His research has contributed to discoveries involving the gluon, top quark and the Higgs boson, as well as advancements in using Bayesian statistics and machine learning in high-energy physics analysis.
• Mike Shatruk: Shatruk is an inorganic materials chemist specializing in solid-state and molecular magnetism and the discovery of new quantum materials. As the founding director of the FSU Quantum Science Initiative, Shatruk works at the boundary between materials chemistry and physics to uncover correlations between crystal structure and magnetic properties of quantum materials. His research, supported by numerous grants, utilizes advanced X-ray and neutron scattering methods to explore intermetallic magnets, stimuli-responsive materials and molecular qubits that could revolutionize optoelectronic devices, quantum technologies, computing and medical sensing. He is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
• Rick Wagner: Wagner is a Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor of Psychology and holds the W. Russell and Eugenia Morcom Chair. He also serves as an associate director of the Florida Center for Reading Research. His research focuses reading acquisition and dyslexia, advancing the scientific understanding of phonological processing and reading disabilities.
• Brad Schmidt: Schmidt is a Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor and Chair of the Department of Psychology. He also directs the Anxiety and Behavioral Health Clinic at FSU. He is an internationally recognized expert on the nature, causes, treatment and prevention of anxiety psychopathology, PTSD, substance use and suicide prevention, and he has published more than 575 peer-reviewed articles.

The new inductees will be formally recognized at the ASEMFL annual meeting in November. For more information about the academy and its members, visit the ASEMFL website.

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A team of researchers from Florida State University and the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory is looking to nature to find microbes that can be used to create new antibiotics to treat the growing threat of drug-resistant bacteria.

Infection from so-called “super bugs” is a leading cause of death globally. Drug resistant bacteria contribute to nearly five million deaths every year, according to the World Health Organization. As more pathogens develop resistance, that number is expected to jump nearly 70% in the next 25 years.

The team of FSU and MagLab researchers will screen soil microbes from around the world to hunt for sources of new antibacterial drugs. The Novo Nordisk Foundation is funding the project as part of an international drug discovery initiative.

“People have been searching for new antibiotics for many years, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to discover novel compounds. Our goal is to revolutionize the drug discovery pipeline,” said Xiangpeng Li, an assistant professor in the FSU Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry. “If we don’t do anything, antibiotic resistance will be a huge problem for the human race.”

Buried treasure: Potential medical marvels in the soil

Molecules made by microbes have long been used to treat bacterial infections. The first antibiotic, penicillin, was developed from mold nearly 100 years ago. Common antibiotics like streptomycin are produced by bacteria.

The researchers will test soil samples supplied by Rob Spencer, a biogeochemist and professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science. He studies the carbon cycle, and particularly the rapidly changing environments of the Arctic and tropics.

“It’s common to think about soils as just dirt, but they are essential for our nutrient, carbon and water cycles, and microbes in soils hold huge potential for discovery of new drugs,” Spencer said.

His samples from extreme environments like the polar regions hold particular promise because they have not been extensively examined.

“Those samples might contain very novel microbes,” Li said. “They have been frozen for maybe tens to hundreds of thousands of years. We are more likely to find new things.”

How it works

To find sources for potential new antibacterial drugs, the team has the ambitious goal of screening a billion microbes.

Li specializes in droplet microfluidics, manipulating tiny drops of fluid about the width of a human hair through troughs etched on a silicone disc to rapidly conduct chemical screening. His microfluidics system will quickly process tens of thousands of droplets at a time.

“Typically, when we search for new compounds from nature, it’s a rather arduous process working with individually isolated microbes, but with the speed of microfluidics and the analytical power of the Ion Cyclotron Resonance Facility, we can sample all of the microbes from a variety of environments all at once. It’s a very exciting collaboration,” said Edward Kalkreuter, an assistant professor in the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry.

Inside the droplets, soil microbial cells will be combined with a common antibiotic-resistant bacterium called Klebsiella pneumoniae and a fluorescent color-coded tag to allow for rapid sorting.

Then the MagLab’s Ion Cyclotron Resonance Facility, or ICR, will identify bioactive molecules from the soil microbes.

“You might have a soil sample and it kills the Klebsiella, but you don’t know what those molecules are. So that’s where we come in,” said ICR Director Kicki Håkansson.

The lab’s powerful ICR mass spectrometers will analyze the droplets that show antimicrobial activity to determine which molecules are responsible for the antibacterial properties. The precision analysis will also be crucial for making sure the discovery is indeed new.

“We’re looking for signals that have not been discovered before. We don’t want to rediscover penicillin,” Li said. “To do that, we annotate the molecular composition of each signal and compare it against databases of known compounds.”

Taking on that data analysis challenge will be the team’s fifth member, Ryan Rodgers, a researcher at the ICR.

International collaboration

The researchers will also share data and ideas with 21 other research groups around the world as part of an international drug discovery consortium with additional funding provided by the Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust. This coordinated investment and collaborative effort will accelerate the search for new medications that are crucial to addressing this growing crisis.

“This new approach allows us to look very thoroughly at compounds that haven’t been looked at,” Håkansson said. “And if we find something, this could be transformative, which is what’s really exciting.”

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 Florida State University chemists have synthesized new molecules derived from bacteria found in a Pacific Ocean sea sponge, a breakthrough for the future of drug development, particularly for rare forms of cancer.

“Around 50 percent of approved drugs are either natural products or derivatives of natural products,” said Zackary Firestone, a fourth-year doctoral student in FSU’s Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, and the study’s lead author. “Synthetic access to these molecules is important because it allows for easier procurement for biological testing as well as the making of new derivatives.”

The research team is the first to successfully synthesize two new marine natural products: tetradehydrohalicyclamine B and epi-tetradehydrohalicyclamine B. Both were isolated from bacteria that lives in symbiosis with Acanthostrongylophora ingens, a Pacific-dwelling sea sponge.

Sea sponges and their cohabitant bacteria are an important source of biologically active molecules. The chemists who realize these natural marine products’ potential through chemical synthesis play a foundational role in evaluating their merit as new medicinal leads for various diseases. The findings were published earlier this year in the Journal of the American Chemical Society, ACS’ flagship scholarly journal.

How it works

Discovered in 2018, tetradehydrohalicyclamine B can inhibit proteasomes, large, barrel-shaped protein complexes that perform waste-management activities within cells by disposing of damaged proteins.

Some rare cancers, like multiple myeloma and mantle cell lymphoma, produce an abundance of toxic proteins, meaning the cancer’s survival and spread rates are heavily dependent on the cancer cell’s ability to dispose of this additional waste. Proteasome inhibitors are an important form of cancer therapy: They enable a buildup of toxic proteins, which places cancer cells under so much stress that they die off, slowing or stopping the spread in its tracks.

Epi-tetradehydrohalicyclamine B, discovered in 2019, hasn’t yet been the subject of published biological study. However, due to its unique structure, the molecule has attracted considerable attention among organic synthetic chemists for its pharmaceutical potential.

Both molecules are derived from bacteria growing in Acanthostrongylophora ingens, a sea sponge primarily found off the coast of Indonesia. As the source for a variety of bioactive molecules, the sponge is in high global demand by researchers. These samples are individually collected by trained scuba divers and often frozen immediately to prevent chemical degradation before shipment. Laboratory synthesis of key molecules within the sponge will expand research activity without limits instilled by natural sea sponge populations.

“These complex molecules have shown promise in medicinal applications, but gathering large quantities of them is difficult and expensive,” Firestone said. “We make these molecules from materials you can buy from suppliers, giving researchers easier access to the molecules as well as the ability to modify them to improve their properties.”

Why it matters

Whether as a drug molecule or a natural product, the precise molecular geometry is critical for interacting with the target protein. The first syntheses of tetradehydrohalicyclamine B and epi-tetradehydrohalicyclamine B resulted in two mirror image geometries, only one of which was biologically active. Firestone is now the first to synthesize these molecules with only the desired geometry, which will allow researchers to better evaluate how these substances’ structures interact with endogenous human targets like the proteasome.

“I really enjoy the problem-solving aspect of making molecules,” Firestone said. “In some ways, it feels like a puzzle where you’re trying to use a plethora of available reactions to build a complex molecule in the most efficient way possible.”

A legacy of molecular synthesis

Firestone’s work is part of a broader research program in the Smith Laboratory, an organic synthesis research lab led by Associate Professor of Chemistry and Biochemistry Joel M. Smith.

The lab explores new ways of synthesizing complex molecules, laying the scientific foundation for the creation of novel small-molecule drugs. While the Smith Laboratory centers its efforts on neurological disorders such as migraines, severe depression, and Parkinson’s disease, Firestone’s research is poised to have eventual applications in cancer treatment.

“Zack is a tenacious synthetic chemist,” Smith said. “In addition to intellect, he’s extraordinarily resilient and disciplined when it comes to doing great science. This makes him exceedingly adept at tackling difficult synthetic problems with a thoughtful and diligent approach, setting him up for a very successful future, both at FSU and beyond.”

FSU’s Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry has a legacy of molecular synthesis and drug development. The late chemist and FSU Professor Robert Holton synthesized the groundbreaking cancer drug Taxol, bypassing the limitations involved in extracting the cancer-inhibiting agent paclitaxel from the bark of the Pacific Yew tree, and allowing for more than a million patients to benefit from the medication.

For more information about Firestone’s work and research in the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, visit chem.fsu.edu.

FSU researchers Thiago A. Grigolo and Filipe G. Pernichelle were coauthors of this study. This research was supported by the National Institutes of Health and by the National Science Foundation.

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Even during a hurricane season expected to be less active, Florida State University experts say Floridians should prepare early, stay alert and avoid focusing too narrowly on storm categories or forecast cones.

During a media briefing Wednesday ahead of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, FSU researchers and emergency management specialists discussed the issues communities continue to face, from rapid coastal growth and rising insurance pressures to the expanding role of artificial intelligence in disaster response.

Here are five key takeaways from the discussion:

1. It only takes one storm

Several experts cautioned against letting seasonal forecasts create a false sense of security.

“It’s the landfalling hurricanes that matter, not the number of hurricanes per season, in terms of human impacts, for the most part,” said Mark Bourassa, a professor in FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies. “If it hits you, it’s bad. It’s something that you do have to be aware of the whole time.”

David Merrick, director of FSU’s Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program and the Center for Disaster Risk Policy, said one quiet season does not eliminate the risk of a devastating storm, pointing to the destruction left by Hurricane Andrew when it made landfall in South Florida in 1992.

“Hurricane Andrew was the first storm of that season,” Merrick said. “It does not take 20 storms. It just takes the one.”

2. Being outside the forecast cone does not guarantee safety

Experts also warned residents not to focus too narrowly on a storm’s forecast track.

Merrick noted that dangerous impacts such as tornadoes, flooding and wind damage can occur far outside the center of a storm.

“Those impacts can go a long way inland,” he said. “They can go left and right of the cone.”

He emphasized that communities outside the projected path can still experience significant damage and disruptions. And as a hurricane develops, the forecast track can move, bringing the center of the storm to communities that only expected minor impacts. Bourassa also pointed to warming ocean temperatures as an area researchers are watching closely, particularly along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

“We’re a little bit more nervous about the temperatures rising and seeing intensity changes as the hurricanes come right onshore,” Bourassa said.

3. Florida’s rapid coastal growth is increasing risk

Dennis Smith, planner in residence in FSU’s Department of Urban and Regional Planning, said Florida’s population growth continues to place more people and property in vulnerable coastal areas.

“The issue hasn’t gotten better in the last 30 years,” Smith said. “We have more people who are living in areas that are at the highest risk.”

Smith said communities are increasingly being forced to think beyond individual homes and consider broader infrastructure needs such as drainage systems, roads and public facilities.

“We have a lot more in our built environment than simply our residential structures,” he said.

The discussion also highlighted how insurance availability is intertwined with planning and development decisions.

“Insurance drives housing availability, and so it becomes a planning issue,” Smith said.

4. Resilient construction and mitigation efforts can make a difference

Patricia Born, the Payne H. and Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management and Insurance at FSU’s Herbert Wertheim College of Business, said Florida’s insurance market appears stronger than it did several years ago, partly because of a quieter storm season and improving reinsurance conditions.

But she said long-term stability will depend on reducing losses through mitigation and resilience efforts.

“One way to control insurance costs is to try to control the losses themselves,” Born said.

Newer buildings are often more resilient than older structures, but insurers still face challenges gathering accurate information about homes and upgrades.

“Some houses that are very old have had roofs replaced two or three times, and they may be much more resilient than an insurance company thinks,” Born said.

She said improving data about construction quality, inspections and mitigation measures could help insurers better understand risk and expand coverage options across the state.

5. Artificial intelligence is beginning to change disaster response

FSU researchers also discussed how artificial intelligence and remote sensing technology are beginning to reshape emergency management and disaster recovery efforts.

Merrick said researchers are exploring how AI tools can help emergency managers make faster decisions, improve damage assessments and allocate resources more efficiently after disasters.

“Emergency managers almost universally are like, yes, we want this tool,” Merrick said.

Still, he said the technology remains in an early stage and raises important questions about accuracy and ethics.

“There’s also an almost universal concern about what happens when the answer that the algorithm or the AI gives is wrong,” Merrick said.

Smith said researchers are also studying how drones, LiDAR imagery and AI analysis could help communities identify infrastructure weaknesses before storms strike.

“I think we’re going to see a trend to begin to integrate that into risk assessment and mitigation planning on the front end,” Smith said.

Visit the FSU News website for a full list of FSU hurricane experts who are available to speak with the media.

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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, bringing increased potential for destructive storms.

Florida State University faculty are leaders in the study of forecasting, evacuation, insurance and building resilience against hurricanes. They are available to speak with media through the 2026 hurricane season and beyond.

Four faculty members answered questions during a virtual media briefing.

Forecasting, Formation and Tracking

Mark Bourassa, professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
mbourassa@fsu.edu , (850) 644-6923
Bourassa uses on-site and remote (aircraft and satellite-based) observations as well as meteorological models to research air-sea interactions and how satellites measure what is happening on Earth’s surface. He is an expert on the network of global meteorological and oceanographic observations that inform forecasts, and the identification of tropical disturbances, which are possible precursors to tropical cyclones. Bourassa is also a team leader for the NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team.

Chelsea Nam, assistant professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
ccnam@fsu.edu, (850) 644-1787
Nam researches formations and intensification of tropical cyclones and the hazards brought by these storms. She uses radar data from airborne, shipborne and land-based sources to develop high-resolution models tracking cyclones. Nam is a member of the American Meteorological Society Scientific and Technological Activities Commission Committee on Radar Meteorology.

Emily Powell, assistant state climatologist, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
epowell@coaps.fsu.edu, (850) 644-0719
Powell provides information about the historical and current climate and weather of Florida for application across a range of sectors and industries. Her expertise includes understanding the drivers of seasonal hurricane forecasts, such as the EL Niño/La Niña cycle, providing historical context, and investigating community risks associated with tropical cyclones. Recent projects have focused on historical climate trends and variability, natural hazards and public health risks, and strategies for building community resilience. She also coordinates the Florida Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), a voluntary-based network of citizen scientists measuring and reporting precipitation from their own backyards.

Community Resilience

Pedro L. Fernández-Cabán, assistant professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
plfernandez@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6251
Fernández-Cabán’s research couples laboratory and field experiments to assess the structural performance of civil infrastructure during windstorm events. His recent work focuses on developing state-of-the-art AI and machine learning models to predict hurricane wind fields and their interaction with coastal landscapes. Fernández-Cabán’s research leverages ground-level anemometric datasets collected during landfalling hurricanes and advanced wind tunnel techniques to better model the impact of coastal storms on civil infrastructure.

Katie Kehoe, assistant professor, College of Fine Arts
mkk22f@fsu.edu
Kehoe primarily works in performance and site-specific installations with a focus on natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes. She led a 2024 project that honored the resilience of the rural Florida community of Steinhatchee in the aftermath of hurricanes Idalia and Debby. The project, “Learning from Local Experience to Strengthen Disaster Resilience,” was part of a pilot research initiative that examines how rural communities recover from extreme weather events such as hurricanes.

Paul Niell, associate professor, Department of Art History, College of Fine Arts
pniell@fsu.edu
Niell’s research focuses on the architectural history and cultural landscapes of the Caribbean. Through his scholarship, he has worked closely with indigenous communities to foster conversation about their traditional architecture and construction methods, designed to be resilient against the region’s intense storms. He has taught courses on Caribbean architecture and culture and is available to discuss how historic building practices helped ensure survival for the region’s Native peoples and how we might be able to apply their knowledge to make our communities more resilient to hurricanes today.

Emergency Management

David Merrick, director of the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program; director of the Center for Disaster Risk Policy
dmerrick@fsu.edu , Office: (850) 644-9961, Cell: (850) 980-7098
Merrick has worked in state emergency management for more than 21 years in roles including planning, external affairs and air operations. He developed and oversees the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program’s Disaster Incident Research Team, which deploys to disaster impact areas to perform field research on disaster and emergency management. This team has deployed to disasters such as hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Michael, Ian, and Helene to support federal, state and local agencies. His research interests include emergency management planning and policy, remote sensing and unmanned aircraft systems, and information technology in emergency management.

Environmental Law

Shi-Ling Hsu, D’Alemberte Professor, College of Law
shsu@law.fsu.edu , (850) 644-0726
Hsu is an expert in the areas of environmental and natural resource law, economics and property. He has published in a variety of legal journals, co-authored the casebook Ocean and Coastal Resources Law and has appeared on the American Public Media radio show “Marketplace.” Before entering academia, he was a senior attorney and economist for the Environmental Law Institute in Washington, D.C.

Evacuation

Eren Ozguven, associate professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, director of the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
eozguven@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6146
Ozguven directs the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center, which improves the quality of life in Florida and the Southeast by identifying disaster vulnerability, improving infrastructure and investigating ways to minimize negative impacts of natural disasters. His research interests include transportation accessibility, modeling of emergency evacuation operations, artificial intelligence and the simulation of transportation networks. Recent scholarship focuses on the relationships among different infrastructure networks in Florida and how that contributes to disaster preparation.

Maxim A. Dulebenets, associate professor and graduate program director, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering
mdulebenets@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6621
Dulebenets’ research mainly focuses on operations and optimization. His research group has developed efficient algorithms that can be used to schedule large-scale evacuations in preparation for major natural hazards. His models capture realistic features of emergency evacuation planning, including potential impacts of evacuation settings on evacuees themselves. His recent studies propose new types of optimization models and solution algorithms for emergency evacuation planning under pandemic settings, considering a higher risk of virus spread in overcrowded emergency shelters. 

Risk and Insurance

Patricia Born, Payne H. & Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management & Insurance, Herbert Wertheim College of Business
pborn@wertheim.fsu.edu, (850) 644-7884
Born studies the insurance market structure and performance, professional liability, health insurance and the management of catastrophic risks, such as hurricanes and other natural disasters. She is a past president of the American Risk and Insurance Association and the Risk Theory Society.

Charles Nyce, Dr. William T. Hold Professor of Risk Management and Insurance and chair of the Risk Management/Insurance, Real Estate & Legal Studies Department, Herbert Wertheim College of Business
cnyce@wertheim.fsu.edu , (850) 645-8392
Nyce’s research focuses on catastrophic risk financing. He has written numerous articles on risk management and insurance topics, including title insurance, enterprise risk management, predictive analytics and natural hazards.

Public Health

Chris Uejio, professor, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
cuejio@fsu.edu
Uejio studies how the physical environment influences human health and well-being. His recent research includes investigations of tropical cyclones, extreme heat and health. Uejio has been quoted in the Orlando Sentinel, Tampa Bay Times, Wall Street Journal, Science Friday and other news outlets about public health issues, including heat waves and hurricanes.

Urban Planning

Dennis Smith, planner in residence, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
djsmith3@fsu.edu
Smith is the director of the Mark & Marianne Barnebey Planning & Development Lab, which uses the academic and professional resources of Florida State University to connect with public and private partners to provide capacity and innovative planning for the sustainable growth and long-term viability of Florida communities. His work has focused on risks to the built environment, including projects for resiliency, transportation modeling, evacuation planning for high-risk areas and vulnerability assessment. He has extensive experience managing state and federal programs and a thorough knowledge of laws relating to land use, transportation and disaster recovery.

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The model combines real-time and historical data to predict outbreaks and protect public health

Every summer, beach closures disrupt families, harm local businesses and raise public health alarms. Most of the time, the warning comes after it is already too late.

A new artificial intelligence framework developed at the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering aims to change that by alerting water managers to E. coli contamination risk before anyone falls sick.

Researchers led by Assistant Professor Nasrin Alamdari developed an AI-powered predictive modeling framework that uses environmental and hydrometeorological data to provide early warnings of Escherichia coli (E. coli) contamination in recreational waterways, giving communities a window to act before health risks emerge.

Their model, which was published in Water Research, identified unsafe conditions with approximately 85% accuracy, demonstrating its potential to offer earlier warnings before levels reach unsafe thresholds.

“Beach closures often occur because we detect contamination after water conditions have already become unsafe,” said Alamdari, a researcher in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center. “Our goal is to move from a reactive approach to a predictive one, leveraging continuous environmental data, including rainfall, river flow, turbidity, temperature and upstream conditions, to estimate E. coli levels in near real time and up to a day in advance.”

How it works

Traditional water quality monitoring relies on manual sampling followed by laboratory analysis, a process that takes 18 to 24 hours to yield results. By the time a beach or river is closed, swimmers may have already been exposed to dangerous levels of contamination.

The framework developed by researchers uses current and historical environmental data to estimate contamination risk without waiting for lab results. Inputs include upstream hydrologic conditions, streamflow rates, rainfall totals, turbidity readings and water temperature. By combining these variables, the model can flag elevated E. coli risk with 24 hours advance warning.

A 2023 sewage spill that occurred after a malfunction at the Big Creek Water Reclamation Facility illustrates exactly the kind of scenario the model is built to address.

“The 2023 Big Creek sewage spill is an example of how a sudden treatment failure can rapidly contaminate downstream recreational waters,” said Ali Salou Moumouni, a graduate researcher on the project. “Our predictive models use current and past environmental and hydrometeorological data to estimate contamination risk before lab results arrive. By factoring in upstream hydrologic conditions, our model provides earlier warnings and more targeted monitoring, improving preparedness during sudden contamination events.”

Why it matters: Human health impacts and economic costs

E. coli contamination in recreational waterways can infect people swimming there, causing gastrointestinal distress, nausea or fatigue. Vulnerable populations, such as the very young or old, are at greater risk.

The consequences of delayed contamination alerts extend beyond public health. When closures happen unexpectedly, hotels, outfitters and water recreation businesses lose revenue with little warning. Municipalities absorb higher costs from emergency public notifications and increased health incident response.

“Delays expose the public to greater health risks and increase medical expenses from waterborne illness,” Alamdari said. “Local economies that depend on recreation and tourism suffer revenue losses when visitors cancel trips or avoid affected areas, while municipalities incur higher operational costs for water testing and emergency response. Repeated advisories can also erode public trust, leading to longer-term declines in visitation and further economic loss.”

Proactive alerts, by contrast, give businesses and government agencies advance notice, reduce unnecessary closures and help communities protect both public health and economic stability. By shifting from reactive to predictive monitoring, communities can better protect public health while reducing unnecessary closures and improving economic resilience.

Risk factors

The study also documents how land use changes intensify contamination. Between 2007 and 2023, urbanization in the study area increased impervious cover from 24% to 28%, altering runoff pathways, leading to more polluted runoff and higher and more variable E. coli levels in streams.

As precipitation patterns grow less predictable, even moderate rainfall events carry elevated contamination risk in urbanized watersheds. The model accounts for rainfall history, streamflow and watershed wetness indicators to improve prediction during those in-between conditions that traditional models often miss.

“Our findings show that every development decision influences water quality and public health, highlighting the need for green infrastructure,” said Imtiaz Syed Usama, a graduate researcher on the team.

Storms compound the problem. E. coli levels can spike within hours of heavy rainfall, but traditional lab testing is too slow to catch those surges before people enter the water.

“Our model flips the script: by combining rainfall, streamflow, turbidity and other hydrometeorological data, it helps predict E. coli risk in near real time and up to a day ahead, including during extreme weather,” said Nasr Azadani Mitra, a graduate researcher at RIDER. “Communities without routine lab testing can still issue early warnings and protect public health.”

This research was supported by grants from Florida State University.

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Florida State University researchers have discovered how to accurately predict winter weather forecasts months in advance, affording sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy use and public health a longer lead time to prepare for inclement conditions.

The research, which was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, shows a method for forecasting how the stratospheric polar vortex, or SPV, will behave from winter through summer, before winter even starts.

The polar vortex is a band of strong wind that circles the polar regions during wintertime, acting as a barrier that helps keep bitter Arctic air locked near the polar region. Although SPV activity is known to strongly influence winter weather, scientists have struggled to predict its behavior more than two weeks into the immediate future.

“This work shows that a large portion of subseasonal-to-seasonal variability is not random but embedded in the annual evolution of the climate system,” said co-author Ming Cai, a professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.

Current SPV forecasts rely on real-time data, and by turning to the past to accurately predict the future, the research suggests that unusual or extreme weather events are less random than scientists previously believed.

“When the SPV is strong, that cold air tends to stay in the Arctic. When it is weak, cold air is more likely to spill southward into North America and Eurasia,” said Michael Secor, a recent doctoral graduate in meteorology from FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science who led the study. “The further in advance we can accurately predict the vortex, the further in advance we can help people and organizations prepare for weather conditions that affect agriculture, water management, energy use and public health.”

A crucial input for weather

As spring warms the U.S. each year, the Northern Hemisphere’s SPV dissipates, and a new vortex develops around the South Pole. While active, SPV can vary dramatically in strength and shape, influencing global weather events such as Tallahassee’s record-breaking snowfall in January 2025.

Generally, SPV forecasts are constructed by analyzing its day-to-day evolution over a few weeks or average strength during a given month. While effective in the short term, this method loses its accuracy when looking more than two weeks into the future. To overcome this obstacle, Secor stepped back to examine the problem from a different angle.

“Rather than trying to forecast the day-to-day evolution of the vortex, we start with the idea that its broader behavior over the course of the year may be more predictable,” Secor said. “We then use climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a temperature-based, recurring pattern in the Pacific Ocean known to influence the vortex, to predict those parameters in advance of winter. From there, we can work backward to reconstruct how the vortex will behave day to day, with an accuracy exceeding the current forecasting systems used by weather agencies.”

In addition to enhancing the precision of winter weather forecasting, Secor’s approach may also improve predictions of related climate phenomena with strong yearly cycles, including ENSO, which has a warm phase called El Niño and cold phase called La Niña. El Niño brings cold, rainy weather to the southern U.S. and suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while spurring warm, dry conditions in the northern states. La Niña generates opposite effects.

Capstone work

The research was also selected for an Editors’ Highlight, a rare distinction bestowed upon fewer than 2 percent of all papers published under the American Geophysical Union’s umbrella of journals.

“Michael’s dissertation research, which represents a significant contribution for someone at this stage of his career, reflects not only his technical expertise but also the ability to rethink a long-standing problem from a fundamentally different perspective,” Cai said.

For Secor, the recognition represents the culmination of years of studying meteorology and working to advance science.

“Publishing my dissertation work feels like reaching an important milestone in a journey that began with a fascination with weather at a young age,” Secor said. “It has made me reflect on how fortunate I have been to not only have this opportunity, but also to have people in my life who encouraged my scientific interest both early on and through my doctoral studies.”

EOAS research faculty Jie Sun was also a co-author of this study.

To learn more about research conducted in FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, visit eoas.fsu.edu.

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