Before rain begins to fall, scientists and engineers can predict where a storm might cause flooding thanks to advanced modeling and digital simulations that help guide billion-dollar decisions involving infrastructure design, emergency response, land-use planning, insurance, agriculture, water quality and public safety.

But as new models have evolved, they have diverged into narrow applications or found use beyond their intended scope. The result is a missed opportunity to integrate different methods and improve predictions for flood modeling across domains.

New research featuring the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering and Florida State University’s Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center examined several types of flood models to highlight their strengths and weaknesses and to propose a way forward to integrate development of different models. The research was published in Reviews of Geophysics.

The research supports critical decisions that protect the homes, livelihoods, emergency response, insurance markets and more.

“As scientists and engineers pushed forward innovation in flood modeling, their work has diverged into a variety of methods, each with their own strengths and weaknesses,” said Assistant Professor Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, a co-author on the multi-institution study. “But integrating the improvements of various models is where we can really make the most impact across applications.”

How it works

Flood models are crucial to land use planning, emergency management actions and engineering design. Models can be classified into four types: physics‐based, data‐driven, observational and experimental, and conceptual.

Although all models approximate and simplify the reality of floods and are subject to uncertainty, some trade reliability for efficiency in their computations. Newer models are inclined towards simplified, data-driven methods rather than computational, physics-based approaches because they are easier to implement.

Data-driven models are useful for exploring complex patterns of data and comparing the relationship between flooding and other variables, but these models have limitations when it comes to operational forecasting, design purposes, regulatory hazard analyses and predicting events beyond the conditions represented in their training data because of weak or absent physical constraints. Their generalizability beyond the data they are trained for is also limited.

“These patterns have inherent limitations,” Ahmadisharaf said. “As new methods have developed in isolation from older paradigms, their improvements are siloed within their domains. That limits our ability to better prevent flood events.”

Future directions

The researchers suggest four key directives for future research and development: hybrid frameworks, enhanced physical representation, integration of data-based methods and bridging science and practice.

“We have high-performance computing resources, which could overcome barriers for flood inundation modeling, but there is a trend of using simplified models that don’t take advantage of these new advancements,” Ahmadisharaf said.

Rather than spending resources on overcoming the limitations of simplified methods of flood models, researchers recommended that future developments should emphasize promoting the integration of different methods.

“People use simplified methods because they are faster and easier to implement. With data-driven models, however, there is a greater risk when there are data limitations, because these models are fully dependent on the data. Computational methods understand the physics, but they take longer to run,” Ahmadisharaf said. “Integrating these different models would lead to improvements for both methods.”

Why it matters

Refining flood modeling systems is crucial to not overextending them beyond their actual capabilities. These systems support critical decision making, so they need to be accurate and reliable.

“Flood modeling supports decisions for damage reduction, infrastructure design and more,” Ahmadisharaf said. “We aim to make scientists rethink the direction that flood modeling is going, and not use simplified, data-driven methods as a replacement for computational models. We need to use these models to support each other, so that we can better predict flooding events and protect our infrastructure and communities.”

Researchers from Bristol University, University of Alabama, University of Central Florida, Purdue University, University of California, Irvine, U.S. Army Engineer Research Development Center, the University of Tokyo, US-based company Halff and UK-based company Fathom contributed to this study.

Ahmadisharaf’s research was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Gulf Research Program of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

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Florida State University’s Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center recently convened farmers, researchers and emergency management leaders from across the Southeast to examine how disasters disrupt food production and what communities can do to strengthen resilience.

The summit, “Rooted in Resilience: Farmers and Researchers Respond to Disasters and Disruptions,” focused on food production, food system resilience and emergency management.

The event brought together local and regional leaders from Northwest Florida along with farmers and researchers from the Southeast and Appalachian regions.

“This summit reflects something Florida State University believes deeply: that the most important work we do happens at the intersection of research and real lives,” said Provost James Clark. “At FSU, resilience is a priority across disciplines, including engineering, the social sciences, public policy, and environmental and biological sciences. It’s central to our work with communities who live with risk every day.”

This summit connected farmers and food practitioners with researchers focused on disaster resilience. The event was sponsored by the National Science Foundation and co-hosted by the RIDER Center and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering.

“Building resilience in our food ecosystems has many challenges,” said Eren Ozguven, director of the RIDER Center and a professor in the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering. “With this inaugural event, RIDER takes the lead to focus on adapting to the challenges posed by natural disasters and other disruptions in the food ecosystems of the Southeast region.”

Regional food resilience

The summit started with presentations and panels examining ways to build resilience into food production. Presentations focused on themes such as incorporating lessons from urban food production in 4-H programming, mutual aid and experiences in the aftermath of disasters, information from Assistant Professor Jeffrey Farner on the impact of floods and microplastics on food production, farmer-researcher collaborations and more.

Florentina Rodriguez visited the summit from Agraria Farm in Yellow Springs, Ohio, where she is the programs director and administration manager for the 138-acre research and education farm.

She appreciates events like the summit as an opportunity for farmers and researchers to learn from each other and think about how they can collaborate. Her farm has partnered with Central State University in Wilberforce, Ohio for farmer-to-farmer skill sharing programs. Rodriguez and her colleagues use knowledge developed by researchers, apply it on their own farm, and teach what they have learned to fellow farmers and gardeners.

“We were finding that information wasn’t being readily adopted by farmers or gardeners when the folks who were coming in and doing the education were just institutional partners,” she said. “We said ‘Hey, if you want this to really take off, you have to partner with farmer peer educators because they’re the ones who can say ‘I learned this at Central State and I have been practicing it on my farm and I know that it works.’ When it’s a farmer teaching a farmer, that trust just really accelerates the adoption rate.”

Information sharing among peers helps farmers adapt broad-based guidance to the best practices that will work for their particular site.

“We found that people often try to make efforts on a national scale or global scale, and that’s difficult when you start big and try to distill it down, because so much adaptation has to happen,” Rodriguez said. “When you put different communities together to figure out what is a resilient strategy for each of them, you have resilient communities linked together, and then the whole region is resilient.” 

Emergency management

The summit’s second day examined lessons from emergency management and environmental research.

Panelists Brian Bradshaw from the Tallahassee Fire Department, Department of Geography Professor Mark W. Horner, Christian Levings of the Apalachee Regional Planning Council, and Ozguven discussed how disasters obstruct distribution of food and other resources and how researchers and emergency management professionals can work together to minimize disruptions.

A key part of responding to disasters is knowing a community’s needs, transportation network, chokepoints and other key information before disruptions change the map. Projects such as vulnerability assessments allow emergency management planners to understand the needs of an entire region and respond appropriately to natural disasters that don’t follow county borders, Levings said.

Add the dynamic changes brought on by disasters, and responding to disruptions becomes a multi-dimensional, multi-temporal problem, Horner said.

When managers and planners are faced with a need to reconcile all those variables, that’s where research can make a big impact.

“Our students love to work on data that can help connect research and practice in resilience,” Ozguven said.

Another panel featured Associate Professor Youneng Tang, researcher Xiuming Sun, Assistant Professor Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf and Institute for Water and Health post-doctoral researcher Whitley Stewart. It focused on how disasters such as hurricanes and heavy rainfall affect farming, water quality, and human health.

Collaboration is key for finding effective methods for dealing with the problems posed by these disasters, Ahmadisharaf said.

“The nonacademic piece is really important,” he said. “We need to know more about localized issues, such as what farmers are seeing or fish kills, to get a clearer picture. It is through collaboration with communities that we can extend our research impact.”

Working with the community is a way to supplement data collection, Stewart said. Volunteer citizen-scientists can provide on-ground information quickly after disasters.

“Not everyone can get to the field or work with field-based science, so efforts like those can help tremendously,” she said.

Visit the RIDER Center website for more information about how research at RIDER helps build communities in Florida and around the country that remain resilient against natural disasters.

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Florida faces hurricanes, tornadoes, tropical storms and flooding almost every year. As the state continues to recover from natural disasters like these, scientists look for ways to reduce damage and improve preparedness.  

Eren Erman Ozguven is an associate professor in the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering and Director of the Resilient Infrastructure & Disaster Response (RIDER) Center. His research focuses on transportation engineering in crisis situations, especially amongst aging populations.  

Ozguven recently discussed how his research helps communities prepare for and recover from disasters. 

How does your research serve Floridians?
My research tries to answer the question: “How can we develop new, community-engaged analytical approaches for addressing complex disaster resilience problems that consider population density, environment and infrastructure, as well as compounding disasters such as hurricanes, pandemics and wildfires?” 

Florida is uniquely vulnerable to natural disasters. It is an ideal place to study the physical, social and environmental dynamics of resilience. The insight from my research improves our understanding of emergency response operations in both urban and rural areas and helps shape disaster management plans across Florida and beyond.  

Involving undergraduate and graduate students in this work has also helped develop a multidisciplinary workforce equipped to face the challenges of a rapidly changing world. 

I have built a collaborative research and education program that strives to address growing mobility, safety, accessibility, sustainability and resilience challenges facing communities. Through RIDER, I’ve formed partnerships with researchers in psychology, sociology, public policy, communications, urban and regional planning, geography, computer science, agriculture, medicine, social work, fine arts, history, interior design, oceanography and several engineering fields. Together, we work on projects that strengthen disaster resilience and inform targeted policies and plans. 

How can engineers help predict traffic patterns and routes in emergencies?
Engineers develop the technologies to track hurricanes and tornadoes that affect millions of people in the U.S. every year and cause billions of dollars in losses. Florida is especially vulnerable. Hurricanes Michael and Irma, for example, caused major damage to infrastructure.  

With support from the National Science Foundation, the Department of Transportation and the Department of Energy, my team uses GIS-based spatial and statistical analysis to study how hurricane-related road closures affect communities. We factor in power outages, downed trees, storm surge and flood zones. By analyzing high-resolution satellite images, we develop models that strengthen transportation network resilience. 

These tools help us understand traffic patterns during past evacuations and apply data-driven methods to improve future emergency planning. 

How do RIDER Center resources enhance your research?
Our team at RIDER conducts research that has a real-world impact on communities facing challenges in the aftermath of a crisis, from hurricanes to pandemics. We take an interdisciplinary approach that combines technology, data and new methods for infrastructure management, economic efficiency and environmental protection. 

At the intersection of engineering, science and people, RIDER connects my research with partners across the public, private, nonprofit and academic sectors. The Center also offers cutting-edge tools such as driving simulations and virtual reality that support research in infrastructure operations, real-time monitoring and experimentation. 

How has RIDER partnered with governments and companies to improve disaster responses?
Communities face increasingly complex challenges from co-occurring or back-to-back disasters, and emergency plans must adapt. RIDER helps build multidisciplinary research teams that develop solutions to these problems. 

The center coordinates with local governments, state agencies and community partners to remove barriers and improve emergency response. We have 16 affiliated faculty researchers and five established research labs, including the Laboratory of Advanced Operations Research and Resilience Applications, the Methane Emission Reduction Initiative, the Laboratory for Resilient Materials and Structures, the Laboratory for Sustainable Infrastructure Management and the Water Sustainability and Coastal Hazards Laboratory. These partners focus on finding solutions to regional research matters such as designing resilient structures, improving roads, recycling hurricane debris, solving decision-making problems in supply chain management, improving water infrastructure in the face of floods and reducing methane emissions in landfills.  

RIDER recently received a grant under NSF’s Fire Science Innovations through Research and Education program. This project brings together FSU’s engineering, computer science, earth science and social work experts with regional planning councils and nonprofits to provide Florida agencies with science-based tools to better respond to wildfires. 

 How do you bring your experience and research into the classroom?
I believe real-life experience and research enhance learning. While I make sure students understand the theory behind engineering concepts, I also encourage them to think about real-world applications and use technology like geographical information systems and artificial intelligence tools. I often collaborate with local stakeholders and invite them to speak in class. We focus on community problems such as preparation and response and encourage students to think critically and develop creative solutions.

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The number of dams in the United States at risk of overtopping is increasing, threatening their structural integrity and downstream communities, according to new research from the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering.

The study, published in Nature Communications, examined data from 33 dams over 50 years to determine how overtopping probability changed since 1973. The research found an increasing trend in the number of dams exhibiting critical overtopping probabilities (low, moderate and high) and a decline in the number of dams with non-critical overtopping probabilities (very low).

“Decades ago, dam builders used the best available technology knowledge, but things have been changing, so aging infrastructure is something that is a concern,” said paper co-author Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, an assistant professor in the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering and the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center. “In this study, we showed where hazards from overtopping are greatest, both because of risk of occurrence and possible consequences. It is a guide to where infrastructure spending could have the greatest impact.”

WHAT THEY DID
There are more than 90,000 dams of varying sizes in the country. The researchers narrowed their study to a smaller subset of about 130 sites that had at least 50 years of publicly available water level data. From this subset, they excluded dams influenced by upstream regulation or those with water level data lacking statistical independence. That left them with 33 sites for their study.

The team analyzed water level data from various dams and compared that information with the dam crest height. They examined every 30-year period within the larger 50 years of data to estimate how the probability of overtopping changed over time.

Of the 33 dams studied, 30 dams were classified as large, with crest heights greater than 15 meters, according to the criteria by the International Commission on Large Dams. Thirty-one dams were also classified as “high hazard” by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), meaning their failure could result in loss of life. 

The six dams with the highest probability and the closest downstream cities were located in Texas, Kansas and California:

• Canyon Dam: New Braunfels, Texas
• Kanopolis Dam: Marquette, Kansas
• Milford Dam: Junction, Kansas
• Somerville Dam: Somerville, Texas
• Whiskeytown Dam: Anderson, California
• Whitney Dam: Waco, Texas

“We have to plan upfront for this potential risk,” Ahmadisharaf said. “This information can help dam managers to consider whether they need to revisit their emergency action plans and strategy for operating dams.”

WHY IT MATTERS AND FUTURE DIRECTIONS
Overtopping occurs when stored water exceeds the capacity of a reservoir and spills over the top. This does not necessarily result in immediate damage or failure, but it weakens the dam structure and can increase the risk of catastrophic failure if it continues. Overtopping due to inadequate spillway design, debris blockage of spillways or settlement of the dam crest accounts for about 34% of all U.S. dam failures, according to the Association of State Dam Safety Officials.

Many U.S. dams were built nearly a century ago. Aging construction and changing hazards add to the risk for this crucial infrastructure. In its 2025 infrastructure report card, the American Society of Civil Engineers gave U.S. dams a D+ rating, underscoring the urgency of reassessment and modernization.

This study only considered water levels and dam height. Other factors that influence the likelihood of overtopping include spillway capacity, sedimentation buildup and the rate of inflow, but data for those components was unavailable. The article also focused on the overtopping probability but did not estimate potential consequences and risks. Future research that considers those elements would add to the study’s rigor.

“This study represents the first step toward a comprehensive assessment of dam overtopping probabilities in the U.S. Understanding this potential risk is crucial for protecting communities and prioritizing dam rehabilitation before catastrophic failures occur,” said co-author Eunsaem Cho, a former FSU postdoctoral researcher who is now a research associate at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

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The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, bringing with it an increased focus on these destructive storms.

Florida State University faculty are world leaders in the study of hurricanes and efforts to mitigate their impact. Faculty are available to answer questions and provide perspective for news stories throughout hurricane season and beyond.

Four faculty also participated in a virtual media briefing about this year’s hurricane season.

FORECASTING, FORMATION AND TRACKING
Mark Bourassa, professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
mbourassa@fsu.edu, (850) 644-6923
Bourassa uses on-site and remote (aircraft and satellite-based) observations as well as meteorological models to research air-sea interactions and how satellites measure what is happening on Earth’s surface. He is an expert on the network of global meteorological and oceanographic observations that inform forecasts, and the identification of tropical disturbances, which are possible precursors to tropical cyclones. Bourassa is also a team leader for the NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team.

Bradford D. Johnson, assistant professor, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
bdjohnson@fsu.edu
Johnson’s expertise spans tropical cyclone forecasting, hazard interpretation and science communication. His research integrates geospatial analytics, numerical weather prediction and artificial intelligence to assess the atmospheric and societal impacts of extreme weather events, with an emphasis on urban areas and land use change. He leads projects examining public responses to hurricane forecast graphics and works to improve communication of risk using plain language for diverse stakeholders, including policymakers, emergency managers and the public. His interdisciplinary background and federal program leadership experience position him as a valuable resource for interpreting tropical cyclone hazards and their broader implications.

David Zierden, state climatologist; associate in research, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
dzierden@coaps.fsu.edu, (850) 644-3417
Zierden’s research focuses on climate variability in Florida, the factors that go into seasonal hurricane forecasts and the large-scale environmental factors that affect the hurricane season, including the El Niño/La Niña cycle. He studies how forecasting can be applied to industries including agriculture, forestry and water resources.

COMMUNITY RESILIENCE
Pedro L. Fernández-Cabán, assistant professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
plfernandez@eng.famu.fsu.edu, (850) 410-6251
Fernández-Cabán’s research couples laboratory and field experiments to assess the structural performance of civil infrastructure during windstorm events. His recent work focuses on developing state-of-the-art machine learning models to predict hurricane wind fields and their interaction with coastal landscapes. Fernández-Cabán’s research leverages ground-level anemometric datasets collected during landfalling hurricanes and advanced wind tunnel techniques to better model the impact of coastal storms on civil infrastructure.

Katie Kehoe, assistant professor, College of Fine Arts
mkk22f@fsu.edu
Kehoe primarily works in performance and site-specific installations with a focus on natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes. She led a 2024 project that honored the resilience of the rural Florida community of Steinhatchee in the aftermath of hurricanes Idalia and Debby. The project, “Learning from Local Experience to Strengthen Disaster Resilience,” was part of a pilot research initiative that examines how rural communities recover from extreme weather events such as hurricanes.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
David Merrick, director of the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program; director of the Center for Disaster Risk Policy
dmerrick@fsu.edu, Office: (850) 644-9961, Cell: (850) 980-7098
Merrick has worked in state emergency management for more than 21 years in roles including planning, external affairs and air operations. He developed and oversees the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program’s Disaster Incident Research Team, which deploys to disaster impact areas to perform field research on disaster and emergency management. This team has deployed to disasters such as hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Michael, Ian, and Helene to support federal, state and local agencies. His research interests include emergency management planning and policy, remote sensing and unmanned aircraft systems, and information technology in emergency management.

ENVIRONMENTAL LAW
Shi-Ling Hsu, D’Alemberte Professor, College of Law
shsu@law.fsu.edu, (850) 644-0726
Hsu is an expert in the areas of environmental and natural resource law, economics and property. He has published in a variety of legal journals, co-authored the casebook Ocean and Coastal Resources Law and has appeared on the American Public Media radio show “Marketplace.” Before entering academia, he was a senior attorney and economist for the Environmental Law Institute in Washington, D.C.

Erin Ryan, Elizabeth C. and Clyde W. Atkinson Professor and associate dean for Environmental Programs, College of Law
eryan@law.fsu.edu, (850) 645-0072
Ryan specializes in environmental governance and environmental, water, property and land use law and oversees the Center for Environmental, Energy, and Land Use Law at the FSU College of Law. She has appeared in the Associated Press, Chicago Tribune, Foreign Policy, Huffington Post, London Financial Times, National Public Radio, Thomson-Reuters Beijing and local NBC and CBS Television News.

EVACUATION
Eren Ozguven, associate professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, director of the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
eozguven@eng.famu.fsu.edu, (850) 410-6146
Ozguven directs the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center, which improves the quality of life in Florida and the Southeast by identifying disaster vulnerability, improving infrastructure and investigating ways to minimize negative impacts of natural disasters. His research interests include transportation accessibility, modeling of emergency evacuation operations, artificial intelligence and the simulation of transportation networks. Recent scholarship focuses on the relationships among different infrastructure networks in Florida and how that contributes to disaster preparation.

Maxim A. Dulebenets, associate professor and graduate program director, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering
mdulebenets@eng.famu.fsu.edu, (850) 410-6621
Dulebenets’ research mainly focuses on operations  and optimization. His research group has developed efficient algorithms that can be used to schedule large-scale evacuations in preparation for major natural hazards. His models capture realistic features of emergency evacuation planning, including potential impacts of evacuation settings on evacuees themselves. His recent studies propose new types of optimization models and solution algorithms for emergency evacuation planning under pandemic settings, considering a higher risk of virus spread in overcrowded emergency shelters.

RISK AND INSURANCE
Patricia Born, Payne H. & Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management & Insurance, College of Business
pborn@business.fsu.edu, (850) 644-7884
Born studies the insurance market structure and performance, professional liability, health insurance and the management of catastrophic risks, such as hurricanes and other natural disasters. She is a past president of the American Risk and Insurance Association and the Risk Theory Society.

Charles Nyce, Dr. William T. Hold Professor of Risk Management and Insurance and chair of the Risk Management/Insurance, Real Estate & Legal Studies Department, College of Business
cnyce@business.fsu.edu, (850) 645-8392
Nyce’s research focuses on catastrophic risk financing. He has written numerous articles on risk management and insurance topics, including title insurance, enterprise risk management, predictive analytics and natural hazards.

PUBLIC HEALTH
Chris Uejio, professor, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
cuejio@fsu.edu
Uejio studies how the physical environment influences human health and well-being. His recent research includes investigations of tropical cyclones, extreme heat and health. Uejio has been quoted in the Orlando Sentinel, Tampa Bay Times, Wall Street Journal, Science Friday and other news outlets about public health issues, including heat waves and hurricanes.

URBAN PLANNING
Dennis Smith, planner in residence, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
djsmith3@fsu.edu
Smith is the director of the Mark & Marianne Barnebey Planning & Development Lab, which uses the academic and professional resources of Florida State University to connect with public and private partners to provide capacity and innovative planning for the sustainable growth and long-term viability of Florida communities. His work has focused on risks to the built environment, including projects for resiliency, transportation modeling, evacuation planning for high-risk areas and vulnerability assessment. He has extensive experience managing state and federal programs and a thorough knowledge of laws relating to land use, transportation and disaster recovery.

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A breakthrough technique for predicting extreme weather events in South Florida has emerged from researchers at the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering. The innovation specifically addresses the challenges of forecasting extreme heat and heavy rainfall.

“Many of the techniques used in climate downscaling and bias correction research are limited in prediction of extreme weather events,” said Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, lead researcher at the joint college’s Resilient Infrastructure & Disaster Response (RIDER) Center. “They use methods that give us the big picture but have limitations.”

The research, published in the American Geophysical Union’s Earth’s Future journal, introduces a hybrid statistical technique that promises more accurate climate predictions for local communities and infrastructure planning.

ADVANCING WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS
The study revealed that while current bias correction techniques effectively predict light and moderate rainfall and average temperatures, they fall short when forecasting extreme weather events. To address this gap, researchers developed a technique called EQM-LIN (Empirical Quantile Mapping with Linear correction).

Using data from 20 weather stations across South Florida, the new method combines two statistical approaches to provide more precise climate projections than existing global climate models.

“We found the hybrid technique is especially good at predicting extreme climate variables, namely precipitation and air temperature,” Ahmadisharaf said. “Our projection shows that in the future, South Florida will likely experience slight decreases in precipitation in the summer and an increase in the fall.”

PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The research has immediate practical value for infrastructure planning and community protection. The technique helps stakeholders identify areas vulnerable to potential flooding and assess at-risk infrastructure.

“The results can bolster the resilience of our infrastructure and local communities against climate-related hazards,” Ahmadisharaf said.

FUTURE DIRECTIONS
The multi-station analysis approach offers a promising framework for understanding and preparing for future climatic challenges, but researchers acknowledged that ongoing refinement of the statistical bias correction technique is necessary. Future studies may incorporate regional climate models for even more precise local projections.

“Further improving the bias correction of extreme events and investigating the structure of compound climatic events under future climate remains a priority,” said lead author and postdoctoral researcher Leila Rahimi.

The project, partially funded by an Everglades Foundation fellowship, will expand beyond South Florida with support from the Pensacola and Perdido Bays Estuary Program (PPBEP) and the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM).

COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH EFFORT
The study brought together experts from multiple institutions, including FAMU-FSU Engineering’s Civil and Environmental Engineering Department; Florida State University’s Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science; the University of California, Irvine; Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Jackson State University; and the South Florida Water Management District.

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The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine awarded a FAMU-FSU College of Engineering faculty member a Gulf Research Program Early-Career Research Fellowship, which recognizes researchers who demonstrate exceptional leadership and promise for contributions to the fields of offshore energy system safety, community health or environmental stewardship.

Fellowship honoree Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, an assistant professor in the college’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and the Resilient Infrastructure & Disaster Response Center, or RIDER, focuses his work on predicting floods and nonpoint source pollution under a changing climate and land cover. His research supports decisions related to civil infrastructure design, flood mitigation and water pollution control.

“I’m very honored and thankful for the recognition of my work,” he said. “Through complex technical analyses and computational models, I hope this research will inform better decisions aimed at protecting human health and enhancing community resilience against the climatic hazards of flooding in regions across the Gulf.”

Ahmadisharaf is the third faculty member in Florida State University history to be awarded this prestigious national fellowship.

“Professor Ahmadisharaf is helping to make communities safer, healthier and more resilient through his research,” said Suvranu De, dean of the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering. “This recognition is a testament to his hard work and to the impact it has on the Gulf Coast and the nation.”

The fellowship supports emerging scientific leaders as they take on new research, pursue unique collaborations and build a network of colleagues working to improve the resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems. The fellowship provides support for scientists, engineers, and health professionals at the critical pre-tenure phase of their careers. Fellows receive a two-year grant to fund research expenses and professional development.

The program funds researchers whose work aims to improve the well-being of coastal communities and ecosystems with the goal of generating long-term benefits for the Gulf of Mexico region and the nation. The program features four tracks: human health and community resilience, environmental protection and stewardship, education research, and offshore energy safety.

For the 2024-2026 application cycle, the human health and community resilience track focused on work that contributes to understanding the role that resilience-based interventions play in addressing the root causes of climate, disaster and/or health vulnerability that are associated with health disparities in communities throughout the Gulf of Mexico region.

Ahmadisharaf’s research centers on creating quantitative frameworks that enhance the predictive capabilities for characterizing flooding and surface water quality, as well as their impacts on human health under climate change. Recent projects have helped to quantify how flooding after hurricanes contributes to mold growth in homes and examined how pesticide and fertilizer transport, water pollution and threats to groundwater impact South Florida waterways.

“Although this work starts with modeling environmental systems, the ultimate purpose is to better understand how those systems impact human health,” he said. “That understanding informs decisions that can improve health and quality of life for millions of people.”

Ahmadisharaf joined FSU as a research faculty member in 2020 and was named an assistant professor in 2024. He earned a bachelor’s degree and a master’s degree from Sharif University of Technology in Iran and a doctorate in civil and environmental engineering from Tennessee Technological University.

Visit Ahmadisharaf’s research website to learn more about his work. Visit the National Academies website to learn more about the Early-Career Research Fellowship.

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Florida State University’s Sustainable Green Team recently won its third award from Florida TaxWatch for establishing two new recycling programs and FSU’s first Little Free Library.

The awards program at TaxWatch, a nonpartisan, nonprofit government watchdog and taxpayer research institute in Tallahassee, has recognized state employees and teams who increase productivity and promote innovation since 1989. This year, 10 organizations were recognized, including FSU’s Sustainable Green Team.

FSU’s Sustainable Green Team, comprised of six members from four FSU and Florida A&M University departments, is led by Mitch Gans, who manages the Research Computing Center Data Center in FSU’s Information Technology Services. Members are Amy Finley and Kev Sullivan of the Center for Information Management and Educational Services (CIMES), Daynah Blake and Mehmet Öztan of the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering’s RIDER Center, and Dina Vyortkina of the College of Education, Health, and Human Sciences.

The team came together about four years ago, as people began to return to their offices after the COVID-19 pandemic. Gans, who had remained in his office in the Sliger Building in Innovation Park during the pandemic, had begun working on the building’s green office certification with the CIMES and RIDER centers, but since the team’s expansion they have been able to take on a variety of waste management programs.

“We look for opportunities to solve big sustainability issues,” Gans said. “We’ve built several new recycling programs.”

The team began recycling plastic six-pack can rings from across campus and has continued to expand its efforts. They developed a materials recovery center to support their zero-waste data center, adopted the street outside their offices with the City of Tallahassee to pick up trash, started a recycling program for e-cigarette batteries, repurposed plastic waste from 3-D printers to create artistic structures and developed a Green Guide certificate program to encourage their allies across campus to become more sustainable.

“The FSU Sustainable Green Team does a lot of work with service providers and recyclable materials and will be looking for more ways to personally engage the community it serves in the future,” Gans said.

Recently, the team has connected with the community through events, including hosting tables at FSU-FAMU College of Engineering events and establishing FSU’s first Little Free Library at the Sliger Building.

The Little Free Library, located at 2035 E. Paul Dirac Dr., is always open and functions on an honor system where anyone can take or share a book. The book-sharing box aims to provide book access to all without the restriction of time, space or privilege, and reduces book and paper waste by providing a way to share used books with the community.

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Atlantic hurricane season is nearing its peak, raising alarms for mold outbreaks triggered by flooding and the respiratory health issues to follow.

Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, an assistant professor and researcher at the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering’s Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center, or RIDER, is shedding new light on the indirect effects of flood damage on residential buildings and human health.

His interdisciplinary team of hydrologic engineers and public health scientists explores how flooding after hurricanes contributes to mold growth in homes and the subsequent impact on indoor air quality and respiratory health.

Their research focuses on water-damaged homes in flood-stricken areas such as New Orleans, Baton Rouge, South Florida, New York City and Philadelphia, where they analyzed mold proliferation and its connection to respiratory illnesses. The team aims to uncover the key factors driving mold growth, such as flood depth and roof age, and their correlation with asthma and allergy symptoms. This study addresses critical knowledge gaps and offers insights into the long-term health effects of living in flood-impacted environments.

What is the relationship between flooding and mold growth?
Numerous studies have focused on predicting floods and assessing their impact on fatalities and structural damage. However, when it comes to the indirect and less visible consequences, like mold growth, there has been little quantitative research — particularly in measuring total mold spore counts.

Flood-related conditions, such as excessive dampness and humidity, create an ideal environment for mold to thrive, which can lead to significant respiratory health issues. Mold-related problems don’t necessarily require standing water in the building. Depending on the building materials, water can remain trapped, fostering conditions for mold growth. In severe cases, invisible mold can develop, which often goes unnoticed by residents.

We aimed to collect data on the factors that contribute to mold proliferation and assess its impact on respiratory health, particularly asthma and allergies. Our goal was to predict these outcomes using machine learning algorithms.

What is invisible mold, and how does it pose a threat without people realizing it?
When most people think of mold, they picture black spots on walls or around exhaust fans. But there are other types of mold that are invisible to the naked eye. These unseen mold spores can cause the same respiratory issues as visible mold, and in some cases, may lead to more prolonged health problems.

The challenge with invisible mold is that people often don’t realize it’s present, so they don’t take steps to remediate it. As part of our study on the mid-term impacts of mold growth, we interviewed residents to understand what actions they had — or hadn’t — taken to address mold and whether they had experienced any respiratory issues. This gave us insight into the long-term health effects associated with invisible mold.

How did you incorporate machine learning into your research, particularly with modeling work?
We employed a range of methods to gather data. First, we conducted online questionnaires and surveys to gather information on building characteristics, such as roof conditions and ventilation systems. Then, we visited the properties and collected indoor and outdoor air and dust samples.

After analyzing the samples in the lab, we identified more than 40 species of mold. In addition, we used hindcast data related to flood conditions, along with machine learning algorithms and public domain datasets. Before combining all the data, we took steps to validate it. For instance, we cross-referenced our flood models with stream gauge data and high-water marks.

We also gathered details from participants about the flood levels around their homes and how long the water remained. We then fed this data into machine learning models to predict total mold spore counts based on variables such as roof age, flood depth and ventilation.

The algorithms revealed key factors influencing mold growth, which we used to predict mold levels under certain conditions. In addition to our mold growth model, we developed a classification model to predict asthma exacerbations. By analyzing participant data on symptoms and hospital visits post-flood, the model helped identify the conditions under which asthma symptoms worsened. These insights can inform remediation and prevention efforts.

What is the concept of hindcasting, and how does it fit into this study?
Hindcasting is similar to forecasting but works in reverse — it recreates past events using models and historical data to predict future scenarios. It’s especially useful when we don’t have flood data from every affected building. Hindcasting helps fill those gaps and enhances the spatial coverage, providing insights into how flooding evolved, the maximum flood depth, how long the water remained and how it receded. This technique supports both historical analyses and future flood predictions, offering more complete temporal coverage across different locations.

What does the future of this research look like?
Several avenues could expand our current research. In terms of flood modeling, high-resolution models at the building level could enhance the accuracy of flood depth predictions. For flood characteristics, gathering more detailed data on flood duration, velocity and rate of rise would help validate models and improve the reliability of our conclusions. To better understand flood impacts, we could track data over time for each affected building, capturing both immediate and long-term effects.

While our current focus is on extreme hurricane-related flooding, smaller flood events, such as those caused by heavy rainfall, should also be studied. In some cases, minor flooding could have an equal or even greater impact due to prolonged wetness and saturated conditions from back-to-back storms.

More research in this area would help educate communities about flood preparedness for both major and minor events, provide useful insights for building design, and inform occupational health science and public health policy. We hope that our research efforts will generate more awareness about indoor mold proliferation and the impacts on respiratory health, especially in communities at high risk for allergy and asthma symptoms.

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Near the Florida-Georgia border, the Chattahoochee and Flint rivers meet and become the Apalachicola River, which carries freshwater and nutrients downstream to the Apalachicola Bay.

New research led by FAMU-FSU College of Engineering Assistant Professor Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf examined how drought and water volume in the Lower Apalachicola River watershed affect nitrogen and phosphorous, crucial nutrients for a healthy aquatic ecosystem. The study was published in Water Research.

“In watershed systems like this, that are subject to regulations upstream, knowing how the ecosystem reacts to changes helps us manage it effectively,” said Ahmadisharaf, who is also a researcher at the Resilient Infrastructure & Disaster Response Center, or RIDER. “We can regulate the system to avoid negative consequences, including some that have the potential to be long-lasting.”

The research team examined 20 years of nutrient data collected by the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve, a nationally protected natural organization funded by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and managed by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection.

The researchers also analyzed streamflow data from a U.S. Geological Survey gauge to characterize drought and river flow conditions, which they compared to records of nutrients in the water using statistical analyses. That allowed them to investigate the impact of droughts and river flow patterns on nutrients in different phases of droughts and in short- and long-term periods after droughts ended.

Phosphorous levels
One of the nutrients researchers examined was dissolved inorganic phosphorus. When droughts first begin, phosphorus levels tend to increase slightly, and the range of these levels usually narrows. As droughts continue and get worse, the variability in phosphorus levels increases and the average level goes down. After droughts, when water flow increased, phosphorus levels in streams bounced back quickly because of the “flushing” effect, in which nutrients washed into the streams from the land. Three back-to-back streamflow droughts within the 20 years posed long-term consequences for the export of phosphorus. For example, phosphorus level increased in high flows by 35% from 2003 to 2021, which threatened the downstream estuary with excessive nutrient levels, increased microorganism growth and lower levels of dissolved oxygen.

Nitrogen levels
Researchers also examined changes in dissolved inorganic nitrogen. The impact of drought on nitrogen levels varied more, with the changes more linked to the severity of the drought, and its timing in wet or dry seasons. Nitrogen levels bounced back after droughts finished, but their dynamics within the stream flow patterns changed. For example, nitrogen levels in low flows became higher than those in high flows. Before and during droughts, researchers saw the opposite pattern.

In an ecosystem, as in medicine, the right dose makes all the difference. Nitrogen and phosphorous are essential nutrients for the growth of plants and animals. But too much of those nutrients causes problems such as harmful algae blooms, which deplete dissolved oxygen and produce toxins.

The rapid increase in phosphorous after droughts could lead to a temporary excess in the downstream ecosystem that would cause algae blooms, fish kills, and lead to problems with human health, Ahmadisharaf said.

Their findings give researchers a more detailed understanding of the Apalachicola River and its watershed. The impacts of drought can be specific to a place, so examining the river in detail is key.

“These findings give us a better understanding of how to manage nutrient levels carefully, especially during and after droughts, to avoid ecological problems,” Ahmadisharaf said. “Because climate change affects timing, severity and duration of droughts, this study is important for addressing climate resilience from the coastal water quality perspective.”

Sumon Hossain Rabby and Leila Rahimi, researchers at the RIDER Center, were the first and second authors of this study; the other co-authors were Ming Ye, a professor in the Florida State University Department of Scientific Computing; Jason A. Garwood, a researcher with the U.S. Department of the Interior; Ethan S. Bourque, a researcher with the Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve; and Hamid Moradkhani, the Alton N. Scott Professor of Engineering at the University of Alabama.

This research was supported by the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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An interdisciplinary team of Florida State University researchers is set to tackle some of Florida’s most pressing environmental issues thanks to nearly $1.5 million in funding awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

The team will work together on three EPA-funded projects to examine South Florida’s waterways from three different perspectives: Pesticide and fertilizer transport, water pollution, and threats to groundwater.

“One of our biggest goals with this research is to highlight how important collaboration is in tackling these water issues,” said Ming Ye, a professor in both the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and the Department of Scientific Computing. Ye is leading a three-year, $400,000-project to develop a model-experiment integration, or ModEx, algorithm to better understand how applied pesticides move into and affect the ecosystem.

In model-experiment integrations, researchers combine computational modeling, such as surface water and groundwater modeling methods, with field and lab work that involves site visits and data collection.

South Florida is home to a multi-billion-dollar industry that supplies huge percentages of the state’s agricultural production, including all its sugarcane, almost half of its vegetables, and nearly 40 percent of Florida’s citrus. In turn, many pesticides and fertilizers used are disseminated into the air and the area’s waterways, eventually making their way to the air we breathe and water we use.

After conducting dye-tracing experiments and collecting site-specific data like pH, oxygen, and nutrient levels, the team will combine these observations with various models ranging from process space models to data-driven machine learning algorithms to determine which model is the most accurate in predicting the path of pesticides after application.

“All of these different modeling approaches are informed by the exact data of what’s happening at this site, allowing us to validate predictions against the monitored data we collect via dye-tracing and other methods — we’re calling it a modeling experimental frame,” Ye said.

The second project is led by Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, an assistant professor in the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering’s Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center, or RIDER. Ahmadisharaf will use $400,000 to tackle water pollution over four years.

The team will develop and utilize machine learning to evaluate water quality in the St. Lucie estuary, part of Indian River Lagoon, and the Caloosahatchee estuary, both of which are connected to Lake Okeechobee, Florida’s largest freshwater lake. The research will distinguish the impact of natural and human-related effects on short-term and long-term water quality. They will also investigate further effects of poor water quality, including harm to wildlife like the federally protected manatee and contribution to destructive algae blooms.

“Understanding which factors in water pollution are dominant will help us determine what should be controlled first in addressing water pollution,” Ahmadisharaf said. “We’ll look at salinity readings, nutrient levels, and which pollution factors are short-term versus long-term factors. Combining these observations with valuable insights from the community, such as if certain areas are limiting fertilizer use for some reason, give us a more complete picture of what’s happening and how to address it.”

The team’s final project is led by Ahmed Elshall, one of Ye’s former postdoctoral researchers and current assistant professor in the Department of Bioengineering, Civil Engineering, and Environmental Engineering at Florida Gulf Coast University. This project, funded for $650,000 over three years, addresses challenges of rising sea levels, changing precipitation patterns, and rapid socioeconomic development, all of which threaten Florida’s groundwater and community resilience.

“A main goal of ours is to make our key findings accessible to the public and stakeholders so we all understand the direct and indirect impacts of decisions we make going forward,” Ye said. “For instance, we hope to help the Hydrologic and Water Quality System, a national watershed and water quality assessment online tool accessible to anyone, incorporate a pesticide module.”

Approaching complex, layered environmental issues such as water pollution requires an all-hands-on-deck strategy, as the study of water encompasses chemistry, mathematics, earth science, physics, engineering, biology and more. It also requires community involvement to achieve successful solutions.

“Collaboration and interdisciplinary research is necessary in confronting these problems that impact our health and the ecosystem so strongly,” Ahmadisharaf said. “We’re also working closely with federal agencies and state government organizations such as the South Florida Water Management District, Florida Department of Environmental Protection, and the U.S. Geological Survey to fill local knowledge gaps and ensure our work is helping the community.”

To learn more about research conducted in the FSU Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, visit eoas.fsu.edu. Visit eng.famu.fsu.edu to read more about the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering and its research and rider.eng.famu.fsu.edu for more about the RIDER Center.

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Florida State University recently hosted “Saving the Planet with Indigenous Knowledge,” a free workshop exploring the concept of adaptive resilience for the Florida Gulf’s coastal communities, with a focus on the inclusion of Indigenous knowledge.

The event was part of a National Science Foundation Research Coordination Network (RCN) award project focused on resilient rural infrastructure. Its goal was to foster a new understanding of the complex interactions among key elements of community resilience in rural coastlines and inland areas to adapt to an ever-changing climate and potential natural disasters.

“This RCN project is about creating connections all over the United States, in addition to Florida, to develop disaster resilience actions, tools, strategies, plans and policies — with a focus specifically on our rural areas,” said Eren Erman Ozguven, associate professor of civil and environmental engineering in the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, director of the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center and principal investigator on this project. “When you talk about rural areas, there are many different vulnerable populations that we need to consider.”

In 2022, Ozguven held a workshop with a focus on Hurricane Michael’s impact on rural areas in the Panhandle. Gathering leading community members, government, industry and researchers, this workshop provided insight on how to bridge the “resilience divides” these rural communities have been facing.

“We are now getting into the discussion with the Seminole Tribe of Florida and how Indigenous communities cope with disasters, learning from them, and we also hope to help them as well,” he said. “They have a way of enduring these events — so it is a way to gather their knowledge into disaster planning.”

“Saving the Planet with Indigenous Knowledge” brought together experts from across FSU, including the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering and its RIDER Center, the College of Social Work, the Stoops Center for Communities, Families, and Children and the Native American and Indigenous Studies Center.

Representatives from the Seminole Tribe of Florida, the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering faculty, FEMA, Florida A&M University Emergency Management and FSU Emergency Management were present as members of an emergency management professionals panel.

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