A Florida State University scientist has received a nearly half-million-dollar grant from the National Science Foundation (NSF) to improve nighttime thunderstorm forecasts, research that will help forecasters and communities better prepare for dangerous weather.

Assistant Professor of Scientific Computing Hristo Chipilski will use the $422,645 grant to lead a three-year project combining computational methods with atmospheric observations to accurately model nighttime thunderstorms, which often depend on complex atmospheric conditions that are more difficult for weather models to predict than daytime storms.

“This project is not simply testing a new algorithm or instrument in isolation,” Chipilski said. “Its central question is how advanced computational methods and observations can work together to improve forecasts of one of the atmosphere’s most difficult phenomena.”

All thunderstorms are difficult to predict because small differences in temperature, humidity or wind can affect when and where a storm develops. During the day, sunlight heats the ground, helping warm air rise to form clouds and rain. After sunset, that source of energy for thunderstorms disappears.

Nighttime storms instead depend on conditions including warm, moist air above the Earth’s surface; fast-moving air in the lower atmosphere; fronts; gravity waves or atmospheric disturbances; and outflows, or cool air spreading from earlier storms. Small errors made when inputting these storm conditions can cause a predictive model to estimate the wrong timing, location, amount of rainfall or miss the storm altogether, which can lead to devastating impacts in significant weather events, particularly when nighttime storms spawn tornadoes.

Chipilski will collaborate with researchers at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory. His team will use a technique called data assimilation, which blends observations with weather models to estimate current conditions and provide a starting point for forecasts. Using ground-based remote sensing profilers, which are instruments that measure temperature, moisture and wind at different heights, researchers will observe atmospheric changes just before storms form to combine with the data assimilation techniques.

“Getting that starting point is especially important for nighttime thunderstorms because their nonlinear physics can magnify a small initial error very quickly,” Chipilski said. “By combining measurements with advanced data assimilation techniques, we hope to give the model a more accurate picture of the atmosphere and a better starting point for predicting storms.”

The project will test specific data assimilation methods called quantile-conserving ensemble filters, which preserve more information about possible atmospheric conditions than standard methods. While standard methods often simplify calculations by assuming uncertainty follows a Gaussian, or bell-shaped, pattern, quantile-conserving ensemble filters account for more complex conditions. The team will test whether using this method improves predictions of when and where nighttime storms develop.

This work could lead to earlier, more reliable forecasts of nighttime thunderstorms and hazards including flash flooding, hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. Improved forecasts give communities more time to prepare for weather events while benefiting agriculture, aviation and transportation.

“I did not think about a difference between night and day storms before, but Hristo’s project made it clear to me that there is considerable uncertainty in forecasting and issuing warnings for severe nighttime storms, particularly tornadoes and flash floods,” said Peter Beerli, chair of the Department of Scientific Computing. “Hristo’s research will open new ways to analyze and improve existing data using tools that don’t rely on the usual bell-curve assumptions.”

The grant will also support one of Chipilski’s doctoral students, Stephen Asare, who will contribute to the research by conducting numerical experiments on supercomputers while combining research in scientific computing, atmospheric science and applied mathematics.

“The unanswered questions surrounding nighttime thunderstorms continue to motivate me, and I hope this project will make meaningful contributions in this direction,” Chipilski said. “That understanding can help guide future observing networks and forecasting methods well beyond nighttime thunderstorms.”

To learn more about research conducted in the Department of Scientific Computing, visit sc.fsu.edu.

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Two Florida State University College of Arts and Sciences students, Grace Hickey and Kaya Simmons, have been awarded the 2025 Barry Goldwater Scholarship, a national honor recognizing outstanding undergraduates pursuing research careers in natural sciences, mathematics and engineering.

“FSU’s consistent success with the Goldwater Scholarship is not only a testament to the quality of our students’ research, but the quality of the guidance and mentorship they receive from their faculty mentors who demystify what it means to be a scientist,” said Jesse Wieland, associate director of the Office of National Fellowships.

The Barry Goldwater Scholarship & Excellence in Education Foundation received 1,305 applications from 445 colleges and universities for the 2024-2025 cycle, awarding 441 new scholarships. Since 1986, the program has honored 11,162 scholars for their contributions to scientific advancement.

Grace Hickey, a junior from Niceville, Fla., is pursuing dual degrees in Cell and Molecular Neuroscience and Computational Science. Since arriving at FSU, she has immersed herself in neuroscience research, laying the groundwork for her Goldwater Scholarship.

Her passion for neuroscience began in high school after reading “Patient H.M.: A Story of Memory, Madness, and Family Secrets,” a book about the history of lobotomies and a patient who underwent a brain surgery in 1953 that caused him to lose the ability to form new memories.

“I didn’t always want to be a scientist — through most of middle school I actually wanted to be a fiction author — but ‘Patient H.M.’ opened the door to neuroscience and all of the incredible things that the brain does,” Hickey said. “It opened my eyes to the brain’s complexity and set me on this path.”

For her honors thesis, Hickey has focused her studies on genetic and cellular bases of social behavior alongside Elizabeth Hammock, associate professor in the Department of Psychology. She has also worked on frog mate choice with Alan Lemmon, professor in the Department of Scientific Computing, and the study of insect vision with the Air Force Research Laboratory, where she is the lead author on a forthcoming paper.

Hickey praises the Office of National Fellowships (ONF), especially Jesse Wieland, associate director of the Office of National Fellowships, for the invaluable assistance in preparing her for such a competitive award application.

“FSU’s overall environment for undergraduates in research is fantastic; so many professors are willing to bring undergraduates into their labs, and these professors have been critical to shaping my experience and goals,” she said. “I know I would not be in the same place without the support of ONF and the amazing professors at FSU.”

Reflecting on her journey, Hickey sees this Goldwater Scholarship as both a milestone and a motivator toward her future in research.

“It’s really validating to know that I’m on the right track for a career in research,” she said. “Winning a Goldwater is an amazing reminder that all of my hard work in academics and research over the last three years is helping me grow into a scientist, both now and in the rest of my career.”

Kaya Simmons, a junior from DeLand, Fla., is pursuing a degree in behavioral neuroscience, earning a 2025 Barry Goldwater Scholarship for her innovative animal behavior research.

Her passion for research took flight while working at a local parrot sanctuary in high school, where she interacted with more than 100 parrots to address behavioral challenges.

“The variations in each bird’s response fascinated me, sparking questions about what drives behavioral differences within and across species,” she said. “Behavior ultimately starts with the nervous system, which is why neuroscience is of extra interest to me.”

Since her freshman year at FSU, Simmons has been part of the Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (UROP), building a foundation for her 2025 Goldwater Scholarship.

With Emily DuVal, professor of biological science, Simmons develops machine-learning techniques to analyze dance displays of Panama’s tropical birds, preparing her for upcoming summer fieldwork there. For her honors thesis with Emily Lemmon, professor of biological science, she investigates how vasotocin, a neural hormone, shapes female frog reproductive behavior.

Last summer, Simmons secured a National Science Foundation Research Experiences for Undergraduates Award to study climate change’s impact on ground squirrel behavior in Colorado’s Rocky Mountains. She also co-founded a campus bird-window strike study and leads the Spoonbill Society, FSU’s birding club.

“The faculty here at FSU have played a monumental role in my achievements and ultimately the awarding of this fellowship,” Simmons said. “By providing me with endless knowledge, support, opportunities and resources, I have been able to accomplish so much more than I ever thought was possible.”

Reflecting on the scholarship, she added, “This honor confirms I’m on track for a research career. It’s a milestone motivating me to keep following my academic dreams and contribute to science long-term.”

“Emily and Alan Lemmon, Elizabeth Hammock and Emily DuVal are consistent champions for the undergraduates in their research labs, and their belief in their students is invaluable in this competitive process,” Wieland said. “Grace and Kaya worked incredibly hard to earn this prestigious honor, and I am excited to see where it takes them in their academic and professional careers.”

To learn about fellowship opportunities, visit onf.fsu.edu. Applications for the 2025-2026 cycle will open Tuesday Sept. 2, 2025.

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