Even during a hurricane season expected to be less active, Florida State University experts say Floridians should prepare early, stay alert and avoid focusing too narrowly on storm categories or forecast cones.

During a media briefing Wednesday ahead of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, FSU researchers and emergency management specialists discussed the issues communities continue to face, from rapid coastal growth and rising insurance pressures to the expanding role of artificial intelligence in disaster response.

Here are five key takeaways from the discussion:

1. It only takes one storm

Several experts cautioned against letting seasonal forecasts create a false sense of security.

“It’s the landfalling hurricanes that matter, not the number of hurricanes per season, in terms of human impacts, for the most part,” said Mark Bourassa, a professor in FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies. “If it hits you, it’s bad. It’s something that you do have to be aware of the whole time.”

David Merrick, director of FSU’s Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program and the Center for Disaster Risk Policy, said one quiet season does not eliminate the risk of a devastating storm, pointing to the destruction left by Hurricane Andrew when it made landfall in South Florida in 1992.

“Hurricane Andrew was the first storm of that season,” Merrick said. “It does not take 20 storms. It just takes the one.”

2. Being outside the forecast cone does not guarantee safety

Experts also warned residents not to focus too narrowly on a storm’s forecast track.

Merrick noted that dangerous impacts such as tornadoes, flooding and wind damage can occur far outside the center of a storm.

“Those impacts can go a long way inland,” he said. “They can go left and right of the cone.”

He emphasized that communities outside the projected path can still experience significant damage and disruptions. And as a hurricane develops, the forecast track can move, bringing the center of the storm to communities that only expected minor impacts. Bourassa also pointed to warming ocean temperatures as an area researchers are watching closely, particularly along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

“We’re a little bit more nervous about the temperatures rising and seeing intensity changes as the hurricanes come right onshore,” Bourassa said.

3. Florida’s rapid coastal growth is increasing risk

Dennis Smith, planner in residence in FSU’s Department of Urban and Regional Planning, said Florida’s population growth continues to place more people and property in vulnerable coastal areas.

“The issue hasn’t gotten better in the last 30 years,” Smith said. “We have more people who are living in areas that are at the highest risk.”

Smith said communities are increasingly being forced to think beyond individual homes and consider broader infrastructure needs such as drainage systems, roads and public facilities.

“We have a lot more in our built environment than simply our residential structures,” he said.

The discussion also highlighted how insurance availability is intertwined with planning and development decisions.

“Insurance drives housing availability, and so it becomes a planning issue,” Smith said.

4. Resilient construction and mitigation efforts can make a difference

Patricia Born, the Payne H. and Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management and Insurance at FSU’s Herbert Wertheim College of Business, said Florida’s insurance market appears stronger than it did several years ago, partly because of a quieter storm season and improving reinsurance conditions.

But she said long-term stability will depend on reducing losses through mitigation and resilience efforts.

“One way to control insurance costs is to try to control the losses themselves,” Born said.

Newer buildings are often more resilient than older structures, but insurers still face challenges gathering accurate information about homes and upgrades.

“Some houses that are very old have had roofs replaced two or three times, and they may be much more resilient than an insurance company thinks,” Born said.

She said improving data about construction quality, inspections and mitigation measures could help insurers better understand risk and expand coverage options across the state.

5. Artificial intelligence is beginning to change disaster response

FSU researchers also discussed how artificial intelligence and remote sensing technology are beginning to reshape emergency management and disaster recovery efforts.

Merrick said researchers are exploring how AI tools can help emergency managers make faster decisions, improve damage assessments and allocate resources more efficiently after disasters.

“Emergency managers almost universally are like, yes, we want this tool,” Merrick said.

Still, he said the technology remains in an early stage and raises important questions about accuracy and ethics.

“There’s also an almost universal concern about what happens when the answer that the algorithm or the AI gives is wrong,” Merrick said.

Smith said researchers are also studying how drones, LiDAR imagery and AI analysis could help communities identify infrastructure weaknesses before storms strike.

“I think we’re going to see a trend to begin to integrate that into risk assessment and mitigation planning on the front end,” Smith said.

Visit the FSU News website for a full list of FSU hurricane experts who are available to speak with the media.

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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, bringing increased potential for destructive storms.

Florida State University faculty are leaders in the study of forecasting, evacuation, insurance and building resilience against hurricanes. They are available to speak with media through the 2026 hurricane season and beyond.

Four faculty members answered questions during a virtual media briefing.

Forecasting, Formation and Tracking

Mark Bourassa, professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
mbourassa@fsu.edu , (850) 644-6923
Bourassa uses on-site and remote (aircraft and satellite-based) observations as well as meteorological models to research air-sea interactions and how satellites measure what is happening on Earth’s surface. He is an expert on the network of global meteorological and oceanographic observations that inform forecasts, and the identification of tropical disturbances, which are possible precursors to tropical cyclones. Bourassa is also a team leader for the NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team.

Chelsea Nam, assistant professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
ccnam@fsu.edu, (850) 644-1787
Nam researches formations and intensification of tropical cyclones and the hazards brought by these storms. She uses radar data from airborne, shipborne and land-based sources to develop high-resolution models tracking cyclones. Nam is a member of the American Meteorological Society Scientific and Technological Activities Commission Committee on Radar Meteorology.

Emily Powell, assistant state climatologist, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
epowell@coaps.fsu.edu, (850) 644-0719
Powell provides information about the historical and current climate and weather of Florida for application across a range of sectors and industries. Her expertise includes understanding the drivers of seasonal hurricane forecasts, such as the EL Niño/La Niña cycle, providing historical context, and investigating community risks associated with tropical cyclones. Recent projects have focused on historical climate trends and variability, natural hazards and public health risks, and strategies for building community resilience. She also coordinates the Florida Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), a voluntary-based network of citizen scientists measuring and reporting precipitation from their own backyards.

Community Resilience

Pedro L. Fernández-Cabán, assistant professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
plfernandez@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6251
Fernández-Cabán’s research couples laboratory and field experiments to assess the structural performance of civil infrastructure during windstorm events. His recent work focuses on developing state-of-the-art AI and machine learning models to predict hurricane wind fields and their interaction with coastal landscapes. Fernández-Cabán’s research leverages ground-level anemometric datasets collected during landfalling hurricanes and advanced wind tunnel techniques to better model the impact of coastal storms on civil infrastructure.

Katie Kehoe, assistant professor, College of Fine Arts
mkk22f@fsu.edu
Kehoe primarily works in performance and site-specific installations with a focus on natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes. She led a 2024 project that honored the resilience of the rural Florida community of Steinhatchee in the aftermath of hurricanes Idalia and Debby. The project, “Learning from Local Experience to Strengthen Disaster Resilience,” was part of a pilot research initiative that examines how rural communities recover from extreme weather events such as hurricanes.

Paul Niell, associate professor, Department of Art History, College of Fine Arts
pniell@fsu.edu
Niell’s research focuses on the architectural history and cultural landscapes of the Caribbean. Through his scholarship, he has worked closely with indigenous communities to foster conversation about their traditional architecture and construction methods, designed to be resilient against the region’s intense storms. He has taught courses on Caribbean architecture and culture and is available to discuss how historic building practices helped ensure survival for the region’s Native peoples and how we might be able to apply their knowledge to make our communities more resilient to hurricanes today.

Emergency Management

David Merrick, director of the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program; director of the Center for Disaster Risk Policy
dmerrick@fsu.edu , Office: (850) 644-9961, Cell: (850) 980-7098
Merrick has worked in state emergency management for more than 21 years in roles including planning, external affairs and air operations. He developed and oversees the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program’s Disaster Incident Research Team, which deploys to disaster impact areas to perform field research on disaster and emergency management. This team has deployed to disasters such as hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Michael, Ian, and Helene to support federal, state and local agencies. His research interests include emergency management planning and policy, remote sensing and unmanned aircraft systems, and information technology in emergency management.

Environmental Law

Shi-Ling Hsu, D’Alemberte Professor, College of Law
shsu@law.fsu.edu , (850) 644-0726
Hsu is an expert in the areas of environmental and natural resource law, economics and property. He has published in a variety of legal journals, co-authored the casebook Ocean and Coastal Resources Law and has appeared on the American Public Media radio show “Marketplace.” Before entering academia, he was a senior attorney and economist for the Environmental Law Institute in Washington, D.C.

Evacuation

Eren Ozguven, associate professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, director of the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
eozguven@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6146
Ozguven directs the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center, which improves the quality of life in Florida and the Southeast by identifying disaster vulnerability, improving infrastructure and investigating ways to minimize negative impacts of natural disasters. His research interests include transportation accessibility, modeling of emergency evacuation operations, artificial intelligence and the simulation of transportation networks. Recent scholarship focuses on the relationships among different infrastructure networks in Florida and how that contributes to disaster preparation.

Maxim A. Dulebenets, associate professor and graduate program director, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering
mdulebenets@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6621
Dulebenets’ research mainly focuses on operations and optimization. His research group has developed efficient algorithms that can be used to schedule large-scale evacuations in preparation for major natural hazards. His models capture realistic features of emergency evacuation planning, including potential impacts of evacuation settings on evacuees themselves. His recent studies propose new types of optimization models and solution algorithms for emergency evacuation planning under pandemic settings, considering a higher risk of virus spread in overcrowded emergency shelters. 

Risk and Insurance

Patricia Born, Payne H. & Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management & Insurance, Herbert Wertheim College of Business
pborn@wertheim.fsu.edu, (850) 644-7884
Born studies the insurance market structure and performance, professional liability, health insurance and the management of catastrophic risks, such as hurricanes and other natural disasters. She is a past president of the American Risk and Insurance Association and the Risk Theory Society.

Charles Nyce, Dr. William T. Hold Professor of Risk Management and Insurance and chair of the Risk Management/Insurance, Real Estate & Legal Studies Department, Herbert Wertheim College of Business
cnyce@wertheim.fsu.edu , (850) 645-8392
Nyce’s research focuses on catastrophic risk financing. He has written numerous articles on risk management and insurance topics, including title insurance, enterprise risk management, predictive analytics and natural hazards.

Public Health

Chris Uejio, professor, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
cuejio@fsu.edu
Uejio studies how the physical environment influences human health and well-being. His recent research includes investigations of tropical cyclones, extreme heat and health. Uejio has been quoted in the Orlando Sentinel, Tampa Bay Times, Wall Street Journal, Science Friday and other news outlets about public health issues, including heat waves and hurricanes.

Urban Planning

Dennis Smith, planner in residence, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
djsmith3@fsu.edu
Smith is the director of the Mark & Marianne Barnebey Planning & Development Lab, which uses the academic and professional resources of Florida State University to connect with public and private partners to provide capacity and innovative planning for the sustainable growth and long-term viability of Florida communities. His work has focused on risks to the built environment, including projects for resiliency, transportation modeling, evacuation planning for high-risk areas and vulnerability assessment. He has extensive experience managing state and federal programs and a thorough knowledge of laws relating to land use, transportation and disaster recovery.

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Florida State University’s College of Social Sciences and Public Policy (COSSPP) and Emergency Management and Homeland Security (EMHS) program are offering a new degree and majors for students interested in strengthening community safety and security.

Beginning in fall 2026, FSU students will have two new majors — the Emergency Management major and the Intelligence Studies major — available to them as part of the new Emergency Management and Intelligence Studies (EMIS) bachelor’s degree program.

The development of the degree program began more than four years ago and has undergone extensive review and revision by college and university officials, leadership and committees. The curriculum reflects EMHS faculty and staff’s extensive experience in the field and ensures graduates are best positioned for success serving their communities.

“The development of this degree program builds upon the proven success of our certificate offerings, which are well regarded within the field, while addressing a growing demand among students seeking to contribute to the safety and security of their communities,” said David Merrick, director of FSU’s Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program and Center for Disaster Risk Policy. “The state of Florida is recognized for having one of the nation’s most comprehensive emergency management and homeland security programs, consistently demonstrating leadership in innovation and research. This degree exemplifies FSU’s commitment to developing leaders dedicated to addressing critical issues at the local, state and Federal levels.”

The launch of the degree program was made possible thanks to the collaboration of all EMHS faculty and staff as well as leadership from COSSPP and the university as a whole.

“These new majors demonstrate FSU’s and the college’s commitment to applied learning, public service and academic excellence, while preparing students with the analytical, technical and leadership skills needed to succeed in emergency management, homeland security and intelligence careers.”

– COSSPP Dean Timothy Chapin

The new Bachelor of Science degrees will help prepare students for careers in emergency and disaster management, including roles in the government or private sector, along with state and federal intelligence community positions, and various public safety and public sector jobs. EMHS has leveraged existing faculty and staff to create the new degree program, while enhancing EMHS’s ongoing commitment to practical, experiential learning and community service.

The major in Emergency Management (EM) prepares students to become leaders in emergency management and homeland security. Students in this major will learn key principles of EM policy and planning, primarily through an analysis of real-world scenarios and problems. Students will also study the technical skills and tools required to manage the collection of disaster intelligence for effective response and recovery.

Graduates of the EM major are equipped to design resilient systems, support vulnerable populations and lead effective emergency operations in government, nonprofit and private sectors. Upon graduation, students are qualified for careers in the public and private fields of EM both domestically and internationally.

The major in Intelligence Studies (IS) prepares students to become leaders in the fields of homeland security and intelligence. Students in IS will focus on all aspects of the intelligence process. The program covers processing raw information from various sources into a finished intelligence product through a variety of techniques, all while examining information through a critical and unbiased lens. This track instructs students in the formulation of national security and intelligence policy by focusing on intelligence collection and reporting, as well as emphasizing the importance of intelligence partnerships, cooperation and collaboration. Upon graduation, students will have an education that translates into the practical experiences that employers in the intelligence field value.

“The addition of the new Emergency Management and Intelligence Studies bachelor’s degree is a direct response to the evolving challenges our communities, state and nation face,” said Timothy Chapin, dean of COSSPP. “These new majors demonstrate FSU’s and the college’s commitment to applied learning, public service and academic excellence, while preparing students with the analytical, technical and leadership skills needed to succeed in emergency management, homeland security and intelligence careers.”

For more information, visit em.fsu.edu.

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With both Ukraine and Florida experiencing catastrophic damage to cities from war and hurricanes, respectively, students at Florida State University joined forces with peers in Ukraine to develop real-life solutions for reconstruction efforts last month. This collaboration brought students together to address an urgent and tragic crisis – the destruction of cities.

The event, “Hack Disaster: The International Hackathon to Rebuild Cities,” was hosted by the FSU Innovation Hub in collaboration with FSU’s Ukraine Task Force and the Ukrainian-based organization Hackathon Expert Group. The five-day event virtually connected 32 FSU students with 17 students from Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (KNU) in Ukraine.

Hackathons have become a popular educational tool where interdisciplinary teams compete to solve a real-world problem. This unique hackathon split students into nine interdisciplinary teams, each consisting of four to six students from both Ukraine and the U.S. These binational teams worked together online to respond to the rise of natural and manmade disasters in the 21st century.

The challenge provided an exceptional opportunity for students to use design thinking and advanced technology to assess building damage and estimate reconstruction costs. Over a dozen faculty and experts from FSU and KNU volunteered to support the student teams as mentors and facilitators, offering their expertise across several disciplines, including data science, computer science, artificial intelligence, engineering, emergency management, entrepreneurship and communications.

“It was a true partnership from the earliest planning to the emotional conclusion,” said Ken Baldauf, director of the Innovation Hub at FSU. “We blended design methodologies from the FSU Innovation Hub with a hackathon framework from the Ukrainian Hackathon Expert Group. The results were even more impressive and impactful than we had hoped for. Perhaps the most valuable results were the international connections that were formed between all involved.”

The winning team, “Clear Sight Disaster Suite,” included FSU students Calen Sims, Kathleen Ticer, Ethan Long, and Farhana Taiyebah, along with KNU students Kyrylo Bonduryansky and Daniia Kravchuk. Their project focused on using a shipping container as a command-and-control center outside of a disaster recovery zone and establishing a graphical user interface concept.

Sims, the winning team’s project manager and architect, described the event as a “transformative experience.” He earned his undergraduate degree in computer engineering from the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering while at FSU Panama City in 2021 and is currently pursuing a master’s degree in systems engineering at the same location.

“The event not only challenged my technical skills, but also expanded my understanding of project management, systems engineering, interdisciplinary problem-solving and the importance of global collaboration,” he said. “Working alongside talented peers at FSU and KNU was particularly inspiring, as it highlighted the value of diverse perspectives in addressing complex issues like disaster recovery. This experience instilled in me a commitment to leveraging my skills to solve real-world challenges, leaving a lasting impression that will continue to guide my academic and career aspirations.”

The idea for the event was born this past summer when Taras Panchenko, head of the computer science department at KNU, spent a month on FSU’s campus through the BridgeUSA Ukrainian Academic Fellows Program. The program aims to help Ukrainian universities educate and train professionals critical to the country’s recovery and reconstruction through lasting, productive collaboration with U.S. institutions of higher education.

FSU’s Ukraine Task Force hosted Panchenko and three other Ukrainian higher education officials to learn about teacher-training development, combating human trafficking, mental health care, trauma resiliency, intensive English language development, drone applications, closed-circuit television (CCTV), body security innovations and many other areas. The task force was created in 2022 to support Ukrainian colleges and universities, explore areas of possible research or grant collaboration and educate the FSU community about Ukraine. It falls under the purview of the Learning Systems Institute.

During his time on FSU’s campus, Panchenko, who leads the Ukraine-based Hackathon Expert Group alongside peers at KNU, connected with FSU faculty members and discussed how to foster collaborations between students at FSU and KNU. That’s when he pitched the idea for a virtual hackathon where students at both institutions could collaborate virtually to solve a problem.

“All of the BridgeUSA Fellows are spectacular educators,” said Vilma Fuentes, program director of the FSU Ukraine Task Force. “They live in the world of innovation and are trying to find engaging learning opportunities for their students in the midst of Russia’s daily missile and drone attacks. I am delighted to know that we were able to organize this international hackathon just months after Taras Panchenko’s departure. It was a spectacular learning opportunity for all involved. This is just one of the many international projects we hope to implement with our Ukrainian colleagues at KNU.”

In addition to Panchenko, Baldauf and Fuentes, the planning committee for the event included Anna Romanova, researcher at Learning Systems Institute; Gordon Erlebacher, professor in the Department of Scientific Computing and program director of the Interdisciplinary Data Science Program at FSU; Emily Pritchard, assistant provost for health innovation; David Merrick, director of the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program and the Center for Disaster Risk Policy at FSU; Stephen McDowell, assistant provost for international initiatives at FSU; and Paul Marty, associate vice provost for academic innovation and professor in FSU’s School of Information.

To learn more about the Innovation Hub at FSU, visit innovation.fsu.edu. For more information about FSU’s Ukraine Task Force, visit lsi.fsu.edu/fsu-ukraine-task-force.

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