Hurricane warnings are only effective if people understand them.

A new study by Florida State University faculty in the School of Communication in the College of Communication and Information and the Department of Geography in the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy examined an experimental forecast graphic developed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) that adds inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings to the traditional track-forecast cone, which historically emphasized coastal impacts.

The FSU study found that the new graphic helps nonexperts identify which inland areas are under a hurricane or tropical storm watch. But the updated format, developed by NHC in 2024, didn’t change respondents’ perceptions of risk or their intentions to take protective action. It also didn’t improve their ability to identify regions under warnings. The research was published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather, Climate, and Society.

“The National Hurricane Center has made a number of thoughtful changes to improve how hurricane information is communicated,” said Assistant Professor Elizabeth Ray, the study’s lead author. “We had a simple question. Do those changes actually help people understand what the graphic is telling them about the risk they face?”

Analyzing public understanding

The researchers surveyed participants in Florida and Georgia using both a traditional hurricane cone graphic and the updated experimental version. Respondents who viewed the inland-enhanced graphic were better able to identify areas under tropical storm or hurricane watches, but that improvement did not translate into higher perceptions of risk or plans to avoid storm danger. One challenge is that people often misunderstand what the familiar “cone of uncertainty” actually represents.

“For years, research has shown that people often mistake a wider cone for a bigger storm,” Ray said. “Our findings suggest that even with an updated graphic, that misconception can be hard to shake.”

Turning data into action

The NHC introduced the updated graphic in 2024 to better communicate inland hazards such as flooding, tornadoes and damaging winds. The revised version adds inland hurricane and tropical storm information to the familiar forecast cone to show that serious hurricane impacts often extend well beyond the coastline.

The researchers emphasized that the findings are not a criticism of NHC’s forecasting, which they describe as highly accurate. Instead, the study focuses on the communication challenge of translating complex scientific information into messages the public can quickly understand and use.

“Our question wasn’t whether the science is good,” said co-author Patrick Merle, professor and director of the School of Communication. “The science is excellent. The question is how we communicate that science so people who aren’t meteorologists understand the risk they’re facing.

If people find information credible but still don’t understand it well enough to take protective action, then communication has fallen short. The goal is to empower people with information they can use to stay safe.”

The researchers said people should not rely on the graphic alone but also seek out local forecasts and information about expected impacts.

“Our findings are a reminder that one graphic can only tell you part of the story,” Ray said. “Don’t rely on the cone alone. Pair it with clear, local information about what impacts to expect and what actions to take. That gives you a fuller picture of what the storm could mean where you live and what to do next.”

The research was supported by an internal Florida State University SEED grant and informed by conversations with NHC, which provided the experimental forecast graphics used in the study. Department of Geography Assistant Professor Bradford Johnson was a co-author of the research. The project is part of a broader line of research on crisis and risk communication being conducted through the College of Communication and Information’s Crisis and Communication Collaborative (C3), co-directed by Ray and Merle.

Visit the School of Communication website for more information about research conducted at the College of Communication and Information.

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A collaborative, interdisciplinary team with researchers from Florida State University’s College of Social Sciences and Public Policy has received an $840,000 grant from NASA’s Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team.

The project will advance urban heat island mapping and work with local governments to accelerate the development of extreme heat action plans.

The project is led by FSU Professor of Geography and Public Health Chris Uejio in collaboration with Leiqiu Hu at the University of Alabama at Huntsville and Xiaojiang Li at the University of Pennsylvania.

“Extreme heat contributes to the deaths of more Americans than any other weather hazard,” Uejio said. “Partnering with the Southeast Sustainability Directors Network, we will generate cutting edge heat and health information for eight local governments.”

NASA’s Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (HAQAST) uses satellite data to address the challenges related to public health and air quality. The team also helps NASA and other federal partners respond to emerging issues such as wildland fires.

Uejio’s project, “Scaling Earth Observations to Co-Produce Heat Knowledge and Adaptations,” will deepen scientific understanding of how cities trap and intensify heat, while helping local governments develop stronger plans for responding to extreme heat events.

The team will study how extreme heat varies across communities and identify factors that drive those patterns. Researchers will create hyperlocal maps of heat exposure at 1-meter scaling using satellite data and environmental measurements. They will also examine whether local heat-mitigation strategies align with community vulnerabilities and health outcomes.

In practice, this means identifying where extreme heat is most severe, understanding what causes those hot spots, mapping conditions at the street and neighborhood level using satellite data and evaluating whether local efforts are reducing heat-related risks for vulnerable residents.

“It is a joy to work with brilliant scientists across the nation on timely topics to make Americans healthier,” Uejio said.

To learn more about the Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team, visit the HAQAST website. To learn more about FSU’s Department of Geography, visit the department’s website.

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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, bringing increased potential for destructive storms.

Florida State University faculty are leaders in the study of forecasting, evacuation, insurance and building resilience against hurricanes. They are available to speak with media through the 2026 hurricane season and beyond.

Four faculty members answered questions during a virtual media briefing.

Forecasting, Formation and Tracking

Mark Bourassa, professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
mbourassa@fsu.edu , (850) 644-6923
Bourassa uses on-site and remote (aircraft and satellite-based) observations as well as meteorological models to research air-sea interactions and how satellites measure what is happening on Earth’s surface. He is an expert on the network of global meteorological and oceanographic observations that inform forecasts, and the identification of tropical disturbances, which are possible precursors to tropical cyclones. Bourassa is also a team leader for the NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team.

Chelsea Nam, assistant professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
ccnam@fsu.edu, (850) 644-1787
Nam researches formations and intensification of tropical cyclones and the hazards brought by these storms. She uses radar data from airborne, shipborne and land-based sources to develop high-resolution models tracking cyclones. Nam is a member of the American Meteorological Society Scientific and Technological Activities Commission Committee on Radar Meteorology.

Emily Powell, assistant state climatologist, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
epowell@coaps.fsu.edu, (850) 644-0719
Powell provides information about the historical and current climate and weather of Florida for application across a range of sectors and industries. Her expertise includes understanding the drivers of seasonal hurricane forecasts, such as the EL Niño/La Niña cycle, providing historical context, and investigating community risks associated with tropical cyclones. Recent projects have focused on historical climate trends and variability, natural hazards and public health risks, and strategies for building community resilience. She also coordinates the Florida Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), a voluntary-based network of citizen scientists measuring and reporting precipitation from their own backyards.

Community Resilience

Pedro L. Fernández-Cabán, assistant professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
plfernandez@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6251
Fernández-Cabán’s research couples laboratory and field experiments to assess the structural performance of civil infrastructure during windstorm events. His recent work focuses on developing state-of-the-art AI and machine learning models to predict hurricane wind fields and their interaction with coastal landscapes. Fernández-Cabán’s research leverages ground-level anemometric datasets collected during landfalling hurricanes and advanced wind tunnel techniques to better model the impact of coastal storms on civil infrastructure.

Katie Kehoe, assistant professor, College of Fine Arts
mkk22f@fsu.edu
Kehoe primarily works in performance and site-specific installations with a focus on natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes. She led a 2024 project that honored the resilience of the rural Florida community of Steinhatchee in the aftermath of hurricanes Idalia and Debby. The project, “Learning from Local Experience to Strengthen Disaster Resilience,” was part of a pilot research initiative that examines how rural communities recover from extreme weather events such as hurricanes.

Paul Niell, associate professor, Department of Art History, College of Fine Arts
pniell@fsu.edu
Niell’s research focuses on the architectural history and cultural landscapes of the Caribbean. Through his scholarship, he has worked closely with indigenous communities to foster conversation about their traditional architecture and construction methods, designed to be resilient against the region’s intense storms. He has taught courses on Caribbean architecture and culture and is available to discuss how historic building practices helped ensure survival for the region’s Native peoples and how we might be able to apply their knowledge to make our communities more resilient to hurricanes today.

Emergency Management

David Merrick, director of the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program; director of the Center for Disaster Risk Policy
dmerrick@fsu.edu , Office: (850) 644-9961, Cell: (850) 980-7098
Merrick has worked in state emergency management for more than 21 years in roles including planning, external affairs and air operations. He developed and oversees the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program’s Disaster Incident Research Team, which deploys to disaster impact areas to perform field research on disaster and emergency management. This team has deployed to disasters such as hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Michael, Ian, and Helene to support federal, state and local agencies. His research interests include emergency management planning and policy, remote sensing and unmanned aircraft systems, and information technology in emergency management.

Environmental Law

Shi-Ling Hsu, D’Alemberte Professor, College of Law
shsu@law.fsu.edu , (850) 644-0726
Hsu is an expert in the areas of environmental and natural resource law, economics and property. He has published in a variety of legal journals, co-authored the casebook Ocean and Coastal Resources Law and has appeared on the American Public Media radio show “Marketplace.” Before entering academia, he was a senior attorney and economist for the Environmental Law Institute in Washington, D.C.

Evacuation

Eren Ozguven, associate professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, director of the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
eozguven@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6146
Ozguven directs the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center, which improves the quality of life in Florida and the Southeast by identifying disaster vulnerability, improving infrastructure and investigating ways to minimize negative impacts of natural disasters. His research interests include transportation accessibility, modeling of emergency evacuation operations, artificial intelligence and the simulation of transportation networks. Recent scholarship focuses on the relationships among different infrastructure networks in Florida and how that contributes to disaster preparation.

Maxim A. Dulebenets, associate professor and graduate program director, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering
mdulebenets@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6621
Dulebenets’ research mainly focuses on operations and optimization. His research group has developed efficient algorithms that can be used to schedule large-scale evacuations in preparation for major natural hazards. His models capture realistic features of emergency evacuation planning, including potential impacts of evacuation settings on evacuees themselves. His recent studies propose new types of optimization models and solution algorithms for emergency evacuation planning under pandemic settings, considering a higher risk of virus spread in overcrowded emergency shelters. 

Risk and Insurance

Patricia Born, Payne H. & Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management & Insurance, Herbert Wertheim College of Business
pborn@wertheim.fsu.edu, (850) 644-7884
Born studies the insurance market structure and performance, professional liability, health insurance and the management of catastrophic risks, such as hurricanes and other natural disasters. She is a past president of the American Risk and Insurance Association and the Risk Theory Society.

Charles Nyce, Dr. William T. Hold Professor of Risk Management and Insurance and chair of the Risk Management/Insurance, Real Estate & Legal Studies Department, Herbert Wertheim College of Business
cnyce@wertheim.fsu.edu , (850) 645-8392
Nyce’s research focuses on catastrophic risk financing. He has written numerous articles on risk management and insurance topics, including title insurance, enterprise risk management, predictive analytics and natural hazards.

Public Health

Chris Uejio, professor, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
cuejio@fsu.edu
Uejio studies how the physical environment influences human health and well-being. His recent research includes investigations of tropical cyclones, extreme heat and health. Uejio has been quoted in the Orlando Sentinel, Tampa Bay Times, Wall Street Journal, Science Friday and other news outlets about public health issues, including heat waves and hurricanes.

Urban Planning

Dennis Smith, planner in residence, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
djsmith3@fsu.edu
Smith is the director of the Mark & Marianne Barnebey Planning & Development Lab, which uses the academic and professional resources of Florida State University to connect with public and private partners to provide capacity and innovative planning for the sustainable growth and long-term viability of Florida communities. His work has focused on risks to the built environment, including projects for resiliency, transportation modeling, evacuation planning for high-risk areas and vulnerability assessment. He has extensive experience managing state and federal programs and a thorough knowledge of laws relating to land use, transportation and disaster recovery.

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Florida State University’s Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center recently convened farmers, researchers and emergency management leaders from across the Southeast to examine how disasters disrupt food production and what communities can do to strengthen resilience.

The summit, “Rooted in Resilience: Farmers and Researchers Respond to Disasters and Disruptions,” focused on food production, food system resilience and emergency management.

The event brought together local and regional leaders from Northwest Florida along with farmers and researchers from the Southeast and Appalachian regions.

“This summit reflects something Florida State University believes deeply: that the most important work we do happens at the intersection of research and real lives,” said Provost James Clark. “At FSU, resilience is a priority across disciplines, including engineering, the social sciences, public policy, and environmental and biological sciences. It’s central to our work with communities who live with risk every day.”

This summit connected farmers and food practitioners with researchers focused on disaster resilience. The event was sponsored by the National Science Foundation and co-hosted by the RIDER Center and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering in the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering.

“Building resilience in our food ecosystems has many challenges,” said Eren Ozguven, director of the RIDER Center and a professor in the FAMU-FSU College of Engineering. “With this inaugural event, RIDER takes the lead to focus on adapting to the challenges posed by natural disasters and other disruptions in the food ecosystems of the Southeast region.”

Regional food resilience

The summit started with presentations and panels examining ways to build resilience into food production. Presentations focused on themes such as incorporating lessons from urban food production in 4-H programming, mutual aid and experiences in the aftermath of disasters, information from Assistant Professor Jeffrey Farner on the impact of floods and microplastics on food production, farmer-researcher collaborations and more.

Florentina Rodriguez visited the summit from Agraria Farm in Yellow Springs, Ohio, where she is the programs director and administration manager for the 138-acre research and education farm.

She appreciates events like the summit as an opportunity for farmers and researchers to learn from each other and think about how they can collaborate. Her farm has partnered with Central State University in Wilberforce, Ohio for farmer-to-farmer skill sharing programs. Rodriguez and her colleagues use knowledge developed by researchers, apply it on their own farm, and teach what they have learned to fellow farmers and gardeners.

“We were finding that information wasn’t being readily adopted by farmers or gardeners when the folks who were coming in and doing the education were just institutional partners,” she said. “We said ‘Hey, if you want this to really take off, you have to partner with farmer peer educators because they’re the ones who can say ‘I learned this at Central State and I have been practicing it on my farm and I know that it works.’ When it’s a farmer teaching a farmer, that trust just really accelerates the adoption rate.”

Information sharing among peers helps farmers adapt broad-based guidance to the best practices that will work for their particular site.

“We found that people often try to make efforts on a national scale or global scale, and that’s difficult when you start big and try to distill it down, because so much adaptation has to happen,” Rodriguez said. “When you put different communities together to figure out what is a resilient strategy for each of them, you have resilient communities linked together, and then the whole region is resilient.” 

Emergency management

The summit’s second day examined lessons from emergency management and environmental research.

Panelists Brian Bradshaw from the Tallahassee Fire Department, Department of Geography Professor Mark W. Horner, Christian Levings of the Apalachee Regional Planning Council, and Ozguven discussed how disasters obstruct distribution of food and other resources and how researchers and emergency management professionals can work together to minimize disruptions.

A key part of responding to disasters is knowing a community’s needs, transportation network, chokepoints and other key information before disruptions change the map. Projects such as vulnerability assessments allow emergency management planners to understand the needs of an entire region and respond appropriately to natural disasters that don’t follow county borders, Levings said.

Add the dynamic changes brought on by disasters, and responding to disruptions becomes a multi-dimensional, multi-temporal problem, Horner said.

When managers and planners are faced with a need to reconcile all those variables, that’s where research can make a big impact.

“Our students love to work on data that can help connect research and practice in resilience,” Ozguven said.

Another panel featured Associate Professor Youneng Tang, researcher Xiuming Sun, Assistant Professor Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf and Institute for Water and Health post-doctoral researcher Whitley Stewart. It focused on how disasters such as hurricanes and heavy rainfall affect farming, water quality, and human health.

Collaboration is key for finding effective methods for dealing with the problems posed by these disasters, Ahmadisharaf said.

“The nonacademic piece is really important,” he said. “We need to know more about localized issues, such as what farmers are seeing or fish kills, to get a clearer picture. It is through collaboration with communities that we can extend our research impact.”

Working with the community is a way to supplement data collection, Stewart said. Volunteer citizen-scientists can provide on-ground information quickly after disasters.

“Not everyone can get to the field or work with field-based science, so efforts like those can help tremendously,” she said.

Visit the RIDER Center website for more information about how research at RIDER helps build communities in Florida and around the country that remain resilient against natural disasters.

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Two Florida State University faculty members have been named among the world’s most highly cited researchers, a distinction that places them in the top 1% of scientists and scholars whose work has had the greatest influence in their fields.

Department of Psychology Professor Thomas Joiner and Department of Geography Professor A. Stewart Fotheringham were recognized by the analytics company Clarivate for producing multiple highly cited papers over the past decade, reflecting exceptional research impact in suicide prevention and spatial data analytics.

The designation identifies researchers whose publications rank in the top 1% by citations for their field and year in the Web of Science Core Collection and is awarded to roughly one in every 1,000 researchers worldwide.

Together, Joiner and Fotheringham exemplify FSU’s growing research profile, with scholarship that informs clinical practice, public policy and real-world decision making.

Thomas Joiner
Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor of Psychology
Director, FSU Psychology Lab

Joiner’s research spans psychology, neurobiology and clinical treatment, with an emphasis on understanding the mechanisms that lead to suicide and identifying effective strategies for prevention across diverse populations, including military personnel and first responders. He is known for developing and empirically testing the interpersonal theory of suicide, a foundational framework in contemporary suicide research.

At FSU, Joiner directs the Laboratory for the Study and Prevention of Suicide-Related Conditions and Behaviors, where faculty, clinicians and students collaborate on research examining suicidal ideation and diagnoses and safety around access to lethal means. His work at the university also extends to large-scale, federally funded initiatives, including his role as co-director of the Department of Defense-funded Military Suicide Research Consortium, which is focused on reducing suicide risk among service members.

Joiner’s influence extends beyond academia into clinical practice and public health policy, reshaping how suicide risk is understood and addressed.

“Thomas is not only a prolific researcher, but his work has profoundly influenced practicing clinicians,” said Brad Schmidt, chair of the Department of Psychology in the College of Arts & Sciences. “We are doing a better job assessing for suicide and bringing it out of the shadows because of the bright light that Thomas has shone on it with his theory and empirical work over his career. His research, including the many students he has inspired, has substantially influenced the way we think about, assess and treat suicide risk.”

A. Stewart Fotheringham
Krafft Professor of Spatial Data Science, Department of Geography
Director, Spatial Data Science Center

A. Stewart Fotheringham is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and a pioneer in the application of advanced statistical and computational methods to spatial data. His research focuses on how location and spatial relationships shape social, economic and health-related outcomes, with widely recognized contributions to spatial interaction modeling and local statistical analysis.

At FSU, Fotheringham is the founding director of the Spatial Data Science Center in the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy, where he leads interdisciplinary research that applies spatial analytics to real-world challenges including public health, crime patterns, migration, urban development and the environment.

“Stewart has transformed how researchers and policymakers understand the role of location in complex societal issues,” said Anne Chin, chair of the Department of Geography. “His innovative work in spatial data analytics has not only advanced our tools, but it has also provided practical insights into a range of issues that include public health, urban development and social patterns. Through his research and mentorship, Stewart has shaped a generation of scholars and left a lasting mark on the field of geography. The advances and approaches that he has championed will continue to lead us into meeting the global challenges of tomorrow.”

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Last month, two Ukrainian scholars visited Florida State University to collaborate with faculty, observe classes and shape new research ideas through the BridgeUSA Ukraine Program for Resilience and Reconstruction (BridgeUSA UPRR), a U.S. State Department–funded exchange that connects Ukrainian and American researchers. 

Funded by the U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv, and administered by the American Councils for International Education, BridgeUSA aims to increase mutual understanding between Americans and people of other countries. It remains vital to U.S. national security and to building connections around the world. 

Sofiia Doskich, an assistant professor of geography at Lviv Polytechnic National University, and Kostyantyn Mezentsev, head of the Department of Economic and Social Geography at Taras Shevchenko Kyiv National University, spent a month at FSU conducting research, observing classes, developing new course materials, delivering lectures and presentations and exploring the policies and culture that shape U.S. higher education. 

This marked the second year that FSU’s Ukraine Task Force, housed at the Learning Systems Institute, hosted fellows from the program. Vilma Fuentes, director of the task force, coordinated the visit, including meetings across campus and trips to surrounding cities. 

“We are thankful to the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv and the American Councils for International Education for making these academic exchanges possible,” Fuentes said. “We were honored to have hosted Dr. Sofiia Doskich and Dr. Kostyantyn Mezentsev and to have facilitated these new and growing engagements with Ukrainian academic partners.” 

Topics covered during their visit included emergency management, homeland security, urban planning, drone applications, engineering, geography and the reconstruction of urban regions after disasters. The meetings generated a number of areas for research collaborations and partnerships. 

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Florida State University has launched the Spatial Data Science Center (SDSC) within the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy (COSSPP), establishing a new hub for interdisciplinary research dedicated to solving complex societal problems using advanced spatial data analytics.

Led by renowned spatial data scientist A. Stewart Fotheringham, Krafft Professor of Spatial Data Science in the Department of Geography, the SDSC leverages technologies such as GPS and satellite-based remote sensing to analyze human behavior and societal patterns in a geographical context. The research will address critical issues related to public health, transportation, crime, poverty, the environment and more.

“The Spatial Data Science Center is committed to helping provide solutions to some of society’s most pressing problems through the power of spatial data analytics,” Fotheringham said. “FSU’s center contains some of the world’s most prominent experts in this field.”

Fotheringham joined FSU in spring 2025 and, as an elected member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, he is widely recognized for his contributions to spatial analysis and geocomputation, including the development of Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) — a method used extensively in public health, urban planning and numerous other disciplines.

COSSPP Dean Tim Chapin said the center’s launch represents a major leap forward for the college as it engages even more deeply in the role of big data in society.

“These investments in spatial data science will yield powerful insights into the health of our people and planet, augment our educational programs to ensure students are trained for a modern workforce, and position the college to continue serving Florida and the U.S. as we develop solutions to our most pressing problems, including political polarization and community health disparities,” Chapin said. “The time for a major social science big data initiative at FSU is now, and Dr. Fotheringham and his team are perfectly placed to see the college and FSU become a leader in this field and industry.”

Fotheringham has founded and led five other prominent spatial data research centers, including the Centre for Geoinformatics at the University of St. Andrews, the National Centre for Geocomputation in Ireland, and most recently, the Spatial Analysis Research Center at Arizona State University.

“The time for a major social science big data initiative at FSU is now, and Dr. Fotheringham and his team are perfectly placed to see the college and FSU become a leader in this field and industry.”

– Dean Tim Chapin, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy

What sets FSU’s center apart is its focus on spatial data science, combining traditional statistical modeling with advanced tools such as artificial intelligence (GeoAI) and machine learning to generate deeper, more localized insights.

“A basic tenet of the SDSC is that to solve real-world problems, we must first understand their root causes,” Fotheringham said. “These issues often have an uneven geographic distribution — cancer rates, crime, house prices, traffic congestion, obesity, literacy rates — and understanding these patterns requires specialized spatial modeling and analysis.”

One of the center’s key areas of expertise is the creation of local statistical models, founded on the belief that “one size may not fit all” when it comes to identifying effective policy or intervention strategies.

Flagship Projects and Innovation

Among its inaugural projects, the SDSC is conducting a detailed analysis of U.S. presidential election voting behavior across more than 200,000 precincts from the 2020 and 2024 elections.

“This is enormously exciting as we are able to uncover aspects of voting behavior at an unprecedented detailed spatial scale,” Fotheringham said. “This involves huge amounts of computer processing time and challenges in both analytics and visualization.”

The SDSC is also advancing the emerging field of explainable AI (XAI) in spatial analytics, developing machine learning algorithms that provide transparent, interpretable insights into why and how an AI model arrives at a particular outcome from spatial data.

Another key project for the SDSC is the development of Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR), a statistical modeling framework co-developed by Fotheringham and his colleagues at FSU. MGWR is freely available on the center’s website.

The SDSC team is working to optimize MGWR for massive datasets, aiming to reduce computation times so the algorithm can run on standard laptops, even with millions of data points.

Collaboration and Community Impact

The SDSC is designed to foster collaboration across FSU and beyond. It invites involvement from departments spanning public health, transportation, sociology, political science, environmental science, urban planning, economics and more. Fotheringham emphasizes the collaborative spirit at FSU that has made launching the center possible.

He recognizes the support the center has received from FSU administration, including Provost James Clark, Vice President for Research Stacey Patterson, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy Dean Tim Chapin and Department of Geography Chair
Anne Chin.

“FSU has some fantastic talents in the area of spatial data science drawn from many disciplines, but I have to single out Geography,” Fotheringham said. “The Geography Department has become a recognized powerhouse in spatial data analysis, and I’m excited to work alongside such dedicated faculty and graduate students.”

Graduate students also play an essential role in the SDSC. Rather than emphasizing seniority or career stage, the SDSC focuses on its members’ skills and interests in spatial data science, maintaining a nearly invisible hierarchy.

The SDSC currently supports around 15 graduate students and offers funding for additional researchers. A dedicated graduate student space is being developed in the Bellamy building, alongside the specialized center’s meeting and visual display room, which is currently undergoing renovation.

The center welcomes collaboration with FSU faculty, local and state government agencies, nonprofits and corporate partners. Faculty can email Fotheringham if they are interested in being involved in one of the center’s six areas of interest: spatial models, GeoAI, and spatial statistics; transportation analytics; voting analytics; urban analytics, environmental analytics; and health analytics.

The SDSC hopes to host its first campuswide forum in February 2026, bringing together FSU scholars and external stakeholders to explore how spatial data science can drive solutions across sectors.

To learn more about FSU’s Spatial Data Science Center, visit cosspp.fsu.edu/sdsc or email stewart.fotheringham@fsu.edu.

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A research project in Florida State University’s Department of Geography has been accepted into the National Artificial Intelligence Research Resource Pilot Start-up program. The project is focused on developing a predictive model to forecast fire frequency and severity in California.

The NAIRR Pilot Start-up program connects researchers and educators to computational, data and training resources essential for advancing AI research and applications. It is led by the National Science Foundation in partnership with 12 other federal agencies and 26 non-governmental partners.

“The main resource from the NAIRR is the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU), which is necessary to train any foundation model,” said Ziqi Li, assistant professor of the Spatial Data Science Center and the Department of Geography.

Foundation models are a form of generative AI which learn from data sets and apply that knowledge to produce new information. The research project, “Advancing Foundation Models to Predict Future Fires in California,” is led by Liling Chang and Li, assistant professors in the Department of Geography, who are developing a foundation model that examines the history of fires in California to predict when and where future fires may occur and how severe they might be.

“Fires in those ecosystems are very important,” said Chang. “Ecosystems co-evolve with fire, and fires play an important feedback role onto these ecosystems.”

Predicting when and where fires will occur helps fire management organizations reduce catastrophic events and understand the impact of fire management on various ecosystems.

“Our main goal would be to generate the future time series, spatial maps and severity mosaics of fires in California by the end of the century,” Chang said.

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With recent hires in the College of Medicine and the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy, Florida State University has doubled the number of its faculty who are members of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, a prestigious organization that unites leading researchers from around the country.

“Florida State University is a leading research university and an excellent place to grow an academic career,” said FSU President Richard McCullough. “Our ability to attract these esteemed faculty members is a testament to that commitment.”

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, or NASEM, are private, nonprofit institutions that provide expert advice on some of the most pressing challenges facing the nation and world. Their work helps shape sound policies, inform public opinion and advance the pursuit of science, engineering and medicine.

The university now counts 12 NASEM members among its faculty, an increase from six in 2024.

“These National Academy members want to be a part of FSU because the administration, faculty and students value their contributions and the opportunity to collaborate,” said Provost and Executive Vice President for Academic Affairs Jim Clark.

This year, FSU added National Academy members A. Stewart Fotheringham to the Department of Geography, Regan Bailey to the Department of Behavioral Sciences and Social Medicine, and Patrick Stover to the Department of Biomedical Sciences.

Fotheringham is the Krafft Professor of Spatial Data Science and the director of the Spatial Data Science Center. His research focuses on the analysis of spatial data sets using statistical, mathematical and computational methods, which he applies to topics such as health data, crime patterns, migration and more.

Bailey is a professor in the Department of Behavioral Sciences and Social Medicine and co-director of the Institute for Connecting Nutrition and Health. She is a nutritional epidemiologist whose research is focused on promoting health through nutrition across the lifespan. Her research program uses best practices for characterizing nutritional status, improvement of dietary assessment and chronic disease risk using a life course approach.

Stover is a professor in the Department of Biomedical Sciences and co-director of the Institute for Connecting Nutrition and Health. He is known for his research on folate metabolism and its crucial role in human health. His work has helped uncover how folate, a B-vitamin, affects critical biological processes such as DNA synthesis, repair and methylation, and it has shown how folate deficiencies could lead to severe health consequences such as neuropathies, cancer and cardiovascular diseases.

The number of National Academy members on the faculty is an important factor for institutional membership in the Association of American Universities, or AAU, a group of leading research universities.

National Academy members at FSU are working on game-changing research across campus:

National Academy of Sciences
Greg Boebinger, Department of Physics, College of Arts and Sciences; director emeritus of the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory
Laura Greene, Department of Physics, College of Arts and Sciences; chief scientist at the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory
Steven Stanley, Department of Biological Science, College of Arts and Sciences
A. Stewart Fotheringham, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
Patrick Stover, Department of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine

National Academy of Medicine
Regan Bailey, Department of Behavioral Sciences and Social Medicine, College of Medicine
Barbara J. Culliton, College of Communication and Information
Susan B. Hassmiller, College of Nursing
Jill Quadagno, Department of Sociology, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy

National Academy of Engineering
David C. Larbalestier, Department of Mechanical Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering; chief materials scientist, National High Magnetic Field Laboratory
Manoj Shah, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering; FAMU-FSU College of Engineering
Longya Xu, Office of the Dean, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering

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A team of researchers, including Florida State University’s Department of Geography Assistant Professor Liling Chang, has published a study identifying key environmental factors that affect tropical forest canopy height. The research provides insights for predicting how tropical forests may react to future environmental changes.

Canopy height is a crucial indicator of forest ecosystem health, influencing elements such as drought resistance, tree mortality, biodiversity and carbon storage. The study, in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), uses data from NASA’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), a spaceborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) instrument mounted on the International Space Station.

“The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation mission provides pioneering datasets and an innovative approach for examining ecosystem structure in three dimensions from regional to near-global scales,” Chang said. “Our findings enhance our understanding of how tropical forests respond to environmental stressors, which are crucial for conservation and climate mitigation efforts.”

“Our findings enhance our understanding of how tropical forests respond to environmental stressors, which are crucial for conservation and climate mitigation efforts.”

– Assistant Professor Liling Chang, Department of Geography

The research team found that about 75% of the variation in tropical forest canopy height can be attributed to climate, topography and soil characteristics. The study also showed that elevation, length of the dry season and solar radiation are key determinants influencing canopy height across tropical forests.

These insights can help inform sustainable forest management policies on a global scale by identifying vulnerabilities in tropical forests, such as the lengthening of the dry season in the Southern Amazon.

Understanding the factors that determine canopy height is crucial for accurate estimates of carbon storage and precise carbon accounting in ecosystem models. This information can help identify areas suited for long-term carbon storage and climate resilience initiatives.

To learn more about the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy’s Department of Geography, visit cosspp.fsu.edu/geography.

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The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, bringing with it an increased focus on these destructive storms.

Florida State University faculty are world leaders in the study of hurricanes and efforts to mitigate their impact. Faculty are available to answer questions and provide perspective for news stories throughout hurricane season and beyond.

Four faculty also participated in a virtual media briefing about this year’s hurricane season.

FORECASTING, FORMATION AND TRACKING
Mark Bourassa, professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
mbourassa@fsu.edu, (850) 644-6923
Bourassa uses on-site and remote (aircraft and satellite-based) observations as well as meteorological models to research air-sea interactions and how satellites measure what is happening on Earth’s surface. He is an expert on the network of global meteorological and oceanographic observations that inform forecasts, and the identification of tropical disturbances, which are possible precursors to tropical cyclones. Bourassa is also a team leader for the NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team.

Bradford D. Johnson, assistant professor, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
bdjohnson@fsu.edu
Johnson’s expertise spans tropical cyclone forecasting, hazard interpretation and science communication. His research integrates geospatial analytics, numerical weather prediction and artificial intelligence to assess the atmospheric and societal impacts of extreme weather events, with an emphasis on urban areas and land use change. He leads projects examining public responses to hurricane forecast graphics and works to improve communication of risk using plain language for diverse stakeholders, including policymakers, emergency managers and the public. His interdisciplinary background and federal program leadership experience position him as a valuable resource for interpreting tropical cyclone hazards and their broader implications.

David Zierden, state climatologist; associate in research, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
dzierden@coaps.fsu.edu, (850) 644-3417
Zierden’s research focuses on climate variability in Florida, the factors that go into seasonal hurricane forecasts and the large-scale environmental factors that affect the hurricane season, including the El Niño/La Niña cycle. He studies how forecasting can be applied to industries including agriculture, forestry and water resources.

COMMUNITY RESILIENCE
Pedro L. Fernández-Cabán, assistant professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
plfernandez@eng.famu.fsu.edu, (850) 410-6251
Fernández-Cabán’s research couples laboratory and field experiments to assess the structural performance of civil infrastructure during windstorm events. His recent work focuses on developing state-of-the-art machine learning models to predict hurricane wind fields and their interaction with coastal landscapes. Fernández-Cabán’s research leverages ground-level anemometric datasets collected during landfalling hurricanes and advanced wind tunnel techniques to better model the impact of coastal storms on civil infrastructure.

Katie Kehoe, assistant professor, College of Fine Arts
mkk22f@fsu.edu
Kehoe primarily works in performance and site-specific installations with a focus on natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes. She led a 2024 project that honored the resilience of the rural Florida community of Steinhatchee in the aftermath of hurricanes Idalia and Debby. The project, “Learning from Local Experience to Strengthen Disaster Resilience,” was part of a pilot research initiative that examines how rural communities recover from extreme weather events such as hurricanes.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
David Merrick, director of the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program; director of the Center for Disaster Risk Policy
dmerrick@fsu.edu, Office: (850) 644-9961, Cell: (850) 980-7098
Merrick has worked in state emergency management for more than 21 years in roles including planning, external affairs and air operations. He developed and oversees the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program’s Disaster Incident Research Team, which deploys to disaster impact areas to perform field research on disaster and emergency management. This team has deployed to disasters such as hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Michael, Ian, and Helene to support federal, state and local agencies. His research interests include emergency management planning and policy, remote sensing and unmanned aircraft systems, and information technology in emergency management.

ENVIRONMENTAL LAW
Shi-Ling Hsu, D’Alemberte Professor, College of Law
shsu@law.fsu.edu, (850) 644-0726
Hsu is an expert in the areas of environmental and natural resource law, economics and property. He has published in a variety of legal journals, co-authored the casebook Ocean and Coastal Resources Law and has appeared on the American Public Media radio show “Marketplace.” Before entering academia, he was a senior attorney and economist for the Environmental Law Institute in Washington, D.C.

Erin Ryan, Elizabeth C. and Clyde W. Atkinson Professor and associate dean for Environmental Programs, College of Law
eryan@law.fsu.edu, (850) 645-0072
Ryan specializes in environmental governance and environmental, water, property and land use law and oversees the Center for Environmental, Energy, and Land Use Law at the FSU College of Law. She has appeared in the Associated Press, Chicago Tribune, Foreign Policy, Huffington Post, London Financial Times, National Public Radio, Thomson-Reuters Beijing and local NBC and CBS Television News.

EVACUATION
Eren Ozguven, associate professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, director of the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
eozguven@eng.famu.fsu.edu, (850) 410-6146
Ozguven directs the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center, which improves the quality of life in Florida and the Southeast by identifying disaster vulnerability, improving infrastructure and investigating ways to minimize negative impacts of natural disasters. His research interests include transportation accessibility, modeling of emergency evacuation operations, artificial intelligence and the simulation of transportation networks. Recent scholarship focuses on the relationships among different infrastructure networks in Florida and how that contributes to disaster preparation.

Maxim A. Dulebenets, associate professor and graduate program director, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering
mdulebenets@eng.famu.fsu.edu, (850) 410-6621
Dulebenets’ research mainly focuses on operations  and optimization. His research group has developed efficient algorithms that can be used to schedule large-scale evacuations in preparation for major natural hazards. His models capture realistic features of emergency evacuation planning, including potential impacts of evacuation settings on evacuees themselves. His recent studies propose new types of optimization models and solution algorithms for emergency evacuation planning under pandemic settings, considering a higher risk of virus spread in overcrowded emergency shelters.

RISK AND INSURANCE
Patricia Born, Payne H. & Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management & Insurance, College of Business
pborn@business.fsu.edu, (850) 644-7884
Born studies the insurance market structure and performance, professional liability, health insurance and the management of catastrophic risks, such as hurricanes and other natural disasters. She is a past president of the American Risk and Insurance Association and the Risk Theory Society.

Charles Nyce, Dr. William T. Hold Professor of Risk Management and Insurance and chair of the Risk Management/Insurance, Real Estate & Legal Studies Department, College of Business
cnyce@business.fsu.edu, (850) 645-8392
Nyce’s research focuses on catastrophic risk financing. He has written numerous articles on risk management and insurance topics, including title insurance, enterprise risk management, predictive analytics and natural hazards.

PUBLIC HEALTH
Chris Uejio, professor, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
cuejio@fsu.edu
Uejio studies how the physical environment influences human health and well-being. His recent research includes investigations of tropical cyclones, extreme heat and health. Uejio has been quoted in the Orlando Sentinel, Tampa Bay Times, Wall Street Journal, Science Friday and other news outlets about public health issues, including heat waves and hurricanes.

URBAN PLANNING
Dennis Smith, planner in residence, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
djsmith3@fsu.edu
Smith is the director of the Mark & Marianne Barnebey Planning & Development Lab, which uses the academic and professional resources of Florida State University to connect with public and private partners to provide capacity and innovative planning for the sustainable growth and long-term viability of Florida communities. His work has focused on risks to the built environment, including projects for resiliency, transportation modeling, evacuation planning for high-risk areas and vulnerability assessment. He has extensive experience managing state and federal programs and a thorough knowledge of laws relating to land use, transportation and disaster recovery.

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One of the world’s foremost experts in spatial data science has joined Florida State University’s Department of Geography.

A. Stewart Fotheringham, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, is the new Krafft Professor of Spatial Data Science and the founding director of the new Spatial Data Science Center in the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy.

“Dr. Fotheringham’s appointment is a game changer for FSU and COSSPP,” said Tim Chapin, dean of the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy. “His expertise in spatial analysis and geocomputation will drive groundbreaking research across disciplines and position FSU as a leader in spatial data science. We are thrilled to welcome a scholar of his caliber to our college and university.”

The FSU Spatial Data Science Center will serve as a hub for interdisciplinary research, bringing together scholars from various fields to analyze human behavior in its geographical context. By leveraging advanced spatial analytics, the center will provide deeper insights into health, the environment, transportation, voting, retailing, social issues and more.

Fotheringham is known for developing the spatial analysis technique Geographically Weighted Regression, which is used in many fields, including public health and urban planning.

My aim is to establish FSU as a leader in developing innovative solutions to some of society’s biggest challenges.

– A. Stewart Fotheringham, founding director of FSU’s Spatial Data Science Center

“I am extremely excited to be at FSU to begin the latest chapter in my academic career, which will see the establishment of a Spatial Data Science Center in the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy,” Fotheringham said. “I will be joining other members of the college to solve major challenges in areas such as health, transportation, housing and voting using advanced statistical and computational techniques. My aim is to establish FSU as a leader in developing innovative solutions to some of society’s biggest challenges.”

A globally recognized leader in geographical sciences, Fotheringham was named among the top 1% of the most influential scientists in the world by the Web of Science in 2023, with 12 books, 250 research papers and more than 45,000 citations. In addition to his election to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, he is a member of Academia Europaea, an Academician of the Academy of Social Sciences in the U.K., and a Fellow of both the American Association of Geographers and the University Consortium for Geographic Information Science.

Fotheringham has also established and led several pioneering research centers, including the Centre for Geoinformatics at the University of St. Andrews, the National Centre for Geocomputation in Ireland, and most recently, the Spatial Analysis Research Center at Arizona State University (2017–2024).

To learn more about the College of Social Sciences and Public Policy and FSU’s Department of Geography, visit cosspp.fsu.edu.

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