Florida State University researchers have identified key differences in the root causes of long-term sea-surface temperature changes across the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, a finding that could help guide future research on ocean variability.

Research by Assistant Professor of meteorology Michael Diamond and FSU meteorology graduate alumnus Anthony Freveletti found that long-term temperature changes in the Pacific Oceans are driven primarily by internal ocean variability, while those in the Atlantic are largely the result of human emissions.

The study, conducted with Assistant Professor Robert Jnglin Wills from the ETH Zürich Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, was published this spring in Geophysical Research Letters.

“We know that important sources of natural variability in Earth’s climate system exist, and our ability to distinguish between these natural and human-forced sources of temperature variability is key to projecting future temperatures and their related impacts on society,” Diamond said.

Historical temperature swings in the Atlantic Ocean have long been considered one of those natural sources of variability in Earth’s climate.

Long-term shifts between increasing and decreasing Atlantic sea-surface temperatures were typically thought to be driven by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, a system of currents in the Atlantic Ocean that’s part of the network of natural ocean currents moving water around the world.

“Our findings contradict this theory, as we found that long-term changes in the Atlantic are more directly related to anthropogenic — human produced — causes such as greenhouse gases and aerosols,” Freveletti said.

While most variability in global oceanic sea-surface temperatures were often thought to be driven by natural causes, the team’s findings suggest that only the oscillations in the Pacific are primarily driven by natural climate processes.

Most people, for example, are familiar with El Niño and La Niña, two opposing climate patterns in the tropical Pacific that occur every two to seven years on average. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which Freveletti and Diamond studied, is a similar climate pattern that fluctuates over much longer periods, typically every 20 to 30 years.

Using the programming language Python for data analysis, the team applied a new statistical method called rotated low-frequency component analysis, or RLFCA, to climate model datasets from 1920 through 2025. RLFCA is an adaptation of a low-frequency component analysis method previously developed by Wills that identifies and extracts patterns of temperature change based on how quickly they evolve over time.

“Since human emissions build up in the atmosphere over many years, the temperature changes they cause develop gradually over time,” Freveletti said. “In contrast, natural fluctuations driven by factors such as ocean currents, wind patterns and air pressure occur more rapidly. Our analysis effectively separates these forced and unforced changes within those data trends by identifying which patterns are fast-evolving and which are slow-evolving.”

Freveletti expanded upon this method by adding a “rotational” step that reorganizes identified patterns with known external influences, calculated by climate models, helping distinguish the causes of temperature variability.

The team found that what looked like natural variability in the Atlantic Ocean was actually an overlap between air pollution and aerosols shading and cooling the sea surface and greenhouse gas emissions warming the entire globe.

“Our results show a complex interplay of air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions is responsible for historical temperature patterns in the Atlantic Ocean that led to various weather phenomena, such as a spike in hurricane frequency since 1990,” Diamond said. “We should not expect to return to an inactive hurricane era by chance alone; the future of human emissions will be the most important driver of Atlantic temperatures going forward.”

While natural climate patterns like El Niño and La Niña can affect weather, ecosystems and economies through variability in rainfall, temperature and storm activity, their effects are temporary. Greenhouse gas emissions, by contrast, accumulate over time and have longer-lasting impacts. The researchers said their findings could help inform infrastructure planning along the Atlantic coast, including measures to reduce risks to  coastal communities.

Visit the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science website to learn more about FSU research.

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Florida State University research published today in Science Advances demonstrates a new framework for predicting the motion of kilometer-scale underwater waves that complicate satellite readings of the ocean.

By accurately modeling these subsurface waves, scientists can remove their interference from NASA’s Surface Water and Ocean Topography, or SWOT, satellite, improving the satellite’s signal and allowing for observations of the Earth’s ocean circulation that are about 60 percent more accurate.

“SWOT is giving us the clearest view we have ever had of the ocean’s fine-scale circulation, the small eddies and currents that govern how much heat and carbon the ocean draws down from the atmosphere,” said study lead author Yadidya Badarvada, a researcher at FSU’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies who completed the work at FSU and while a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Michigan. “But those measurements have been partially obscured by internal tides, which mimic the very features we are trying to observe. What this work shows is that the interference we assumed was too chaotic to fix is actually predictable, once you have a model that accurately tracks the evolving ocean state.”

How it works

The SWOT satellite orbits Earth more than 500 miles above the planet’s surface.

Jointly operated by NASA and the French space agency CNES, this satellite observes the surface of the ocean, rivers and lakes to provide high-resolution data used by meteorologists, oceanographers, hydrologists and other scientists. SWOT imaging helps answer questions about the path of rivers, the aftermath of tsunamis and other water features on the planet’s surface.

But finding the ground truth on the planet from the sky can be difficult. Complicating SWOT’s readings over the ocean are internal tides traveling beneath the ocean surface, whose signals overlap with the very features scientists are trying to observe.

Known as internal tides, these underwater waves have historically been the major challenge for measuring sea surface height. These “non-phase-locked” internal tides did not appear to have a predictable pattern, and researchers thought their interference was too chaotic to be corrected using standard statistical or sensing tools.

What they did

To solve this problem, the researchers developed a new framework based on the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, or HYCOM, a three-dimensional depiction of the ocean state at fine resolution in real time. This existing, operational U.S. Navy ocean forecast system is the result of decades of development from researchers across institutions, including FSU’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies.

HYCOM works by continuously combining a physics-based simulation of the ocean with a real-time stream of observational data, a technique called data assimilation. Every day, the model takes in measurements from orbiting satellites that track sea surface height and temperature, robotic floats that drift through the ocean interior measuring temperature and salinity at depth, moored buoys and ship-based instruments. The model uses all of this incoming information to constantly correct its simulation, keeping it as close to the true state of the ocean as possible.

Because HYCOM explicitly simulates the forces that drive tides, including their interaction with seafloor ridges and seamounts, the internal tide field emerges directly from the model’s own ocean physics rather than being estimated separately.

By separating HYCOM’s internal tide predictions into predictable and chaotic components, the team could identify and remove both from SWOT’s measurements. Because SWOT data were never fed into HYCOM, the comparison was a genuine independent test. The result was a 59 percent improvement over the best correction method currently applied to the satellite.

Why it matters

The improved model could help SWOT provide a more accurate picture of the ocean’s surface and currents, which are crucial to our understanding of how the ocean functions. Without accurately observing them from space, scientists cannot track the ocean’s capacity to buffer rising temperatures or verify the models used to project future warming. The work has applications in forecasting, navigation, infrastructure planning and more.

“We can’t deploy buoys across the entire globe to take measurements,” Badarvada said. “The information from SWOT fills a huge gap in our understanding of the physics and dynamics that govern the ocean and how it transports heat and nutrients on a massive scale. We used a model the Navy built to navigate the ocean and ended up giving NASA’s most advanced ocean satellite significantly clearer eyes. That kind of unexpected overlap between defense science and Earth observation is exactly what this project has been about.”

Researchers from the University of Michigan, Oregon State University, Naval Research Laboratory, University of Southern Mississippi, and the French company CLS Group were co-authors on this study. This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research, NASA and the French space agency CNES.

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A team of researchers from Florida State University and the National High Magnetic Field Laboratory is looking to nature to find microbes that can be used to create new antibiotics to treat the growing threat of drug-resistant bacteria.

Infection from so-called “super bugs” is a leading cause of death globally. Drug resistant bacteria contribute to nearly five million deaths every year, according to the World Health Organization. As more pathogens develop resistance, that number is expected to jump nearly 70% in the next 25 years.

The team of FSU and MagLab researchers will screen soil microbes from around the world to hunt for sources of new antibacterial drugs. The Novo Nordisk Foundation is funding the project as part of an international drug discovery initiative.

“People have been searching for new antibiotics for many years, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to discover novel compounds. Our goal is to revolutionize the drug discovery pipeline,” said Xiangpeng Li, an assistant professor in the FSU Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry. “If we don’t do anything, antibiotic resistance will be a huge problem for the human race.”

Buried treasure: Potential medical marvels in the soil

Molecules made by microbes have long been used to treat bacterial infections. The first antibiotic, penicillin, was developed from mold nearly 100 years ago. Common antibiotics like streptomycin are produced by bacteria.

The researchers will test soil samples supplied by Rob Spencer, a biogeochemist and professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science. He studies the carbon cycle, and particularly the rapidly changing environments of the Arctic and tropics.

“It’s common to think about soils as just dirt, but they are essential for our nutrient, carbon and water cycles, and microbes in soils hold huge potential for discovery of new drugs,” Spencer said.

His samples from extreme environments like the polar regions hold particular promise because they have not been extensively examined.

“Those samples might contain very novel microbes,” Li said. “They have been frozen for maybe tens to hundreds of thousands of years. We are more likely to find new things.”

How it works

To find sources for potential new antibacterial drugs, the team has the ambitious goal of screening a billion microbes.

Li specializes in droplet microfluidics, manipulating tiny drops of fluid about the width of a human hair through troughs etched on a silicone disc to rapidly conduct chemical screening. His microfluidics system will quickly process tens of thousands of droplets at a time.

“Typically, when we search for new compounds from nature, it’s a rather arduous process working with individually isolated microbes, but with the speed of microfluidics and the analytical power of the Ion Cyclotron Resonance Facility, we can sample all of the microbes from a variety of environments all at once. It’s a very exciting collaboration,” said Edward Kalkreuter, an assistant professor in the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry.

Inside the droplets, soil microbial cells will be combined with a common antibiotic-resistant bacterium called Klebsiella pneumoniae and a fluorescent color-coded tag to allow for rapid sorting.

Then the MagLab’s Ion Cyclotron Resonance Facility, or ICR, will identify bioactive molecules from the soil microbes.

“You might have a soil sample and it kills the Klebsiella, but you don’t know what those molecules are. So that’s where we come in,” said ICR Director Kicki Håkansson.

The lab’s powerful ICR mass spectrometers will analyze the droplets that show antimicrobial activity to determine which molecules are responsible for the antibacterial properties. The precision analysis will also be crucial for making sure the discovery is indeed new.

“We’re looking for signals that have not been discovered before. We don’t want to rediscover penicillin,” Li said. “To do that, we annotate the molecular composition of each signal and compare it against databases of known compounds.”

Taking on that data analysis challenge will be the team’s fifth member, Ryan Rodgers, a researcher at the ICR.

International collaboration

The researchers will also share data and ideas with 21 other research groups around the world as part of an international drug discovery consortium with additional funding provided by the Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust. This coordinated investment and collaborative effort will accelerate the search for new medications that are crucial to addressing this growing crisis.

“This new approach allows us to look very thoroughly at compounds that haven’t been looked at,” Håkansson said. “And if we find something, this could be transformative, which is what’s really exciting.”

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Even during a hurricane season expected to be less active, Florida State University experts say Floridians should prepare early, stay alert and avoid focusing too narrowly on storm categories or forecast cones.

During a media briefing Wednesday ahead of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, FSU researchers and emergency management specialists discussed the issues communities continue to face, from rapid coastal growth and rising insurance pressures to the expanding role of artificial intelligence in disaster response.

Here are five key takeaways from the discussion:

1. It only takes one storm

Several experts cautioned against letting seasonal forecasts create a false sense of security.

“It’s the landfalling hurricanes that matter, not the number of hurricanes per season, in terms of human impacts, for the most part,” said Mark Bourassa, a professor in FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies. “If it hits you, it’s bad. It’s something that you do have to be aware of the whole time.”

David Merrick, director of FSU’s Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program and the Center for Disaster Risk Policy, said one quiet season does not eliminate the risk of a devastating storm, pointing to the destruction left by Hurricane Andrew when it made landfall in South Florida in 1992.

“Hurricane Andrew was the first storm of that season,” Merrick said. “It does not take 20 storms. It just takes the one.”

2. Being outside the forecast cone does not guarantee safety

Experts also warned residents not to focus too narrowly on a storm’s forecast track.

Merrick noted that dangerous impacts such as tornadoes, flooding and wind damage can occur far outside the center of a storm.

“Those impacts can go a long way inland,” he said. “They can go left and right of the cone.”

He emphasized that communities outside the projected path can still experience significant damage and disruptions. And as a hurricane develops, the forecast track can move, bringing the center of the storm to communities that only expected minor impacts. Bourassa also pointed to warming ocean temperatures as an area researchers are watching closely, particularly along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

“We’re a little bit more nervous about the temperatures rising and seeing intensity changes as the hurricanes come right onshore,” Bourassa said.

3. Florida’s rapid coastal growth is increasing risk

Dennis Smith, planner in residence in FSU’s Department of Urban and Regional Planning, said Florida’s population growth continues to place more people and property in vulnerable coastal areas.

“The issue hasn’t gotten better in the last 30 years,” Smith said. “We have more people who are living in areas that are at the highest risk.”

Smith said communities are increasingly being forced to think beyond individual homes and consider broader infrastructure needs such as drainage systems, roads and public facilities.

“We have a lot more in our built environment than simply our residential structures,” he said.

The discussion also highlighted how insurance availability is intertwined with planning and development decisions.

“Insurance drives housing availability, and so it becomes a planning issue,” Smith said.

4. Resilient construction and mitigation efforts can make a difference

Patricia Born, the Payne H. and Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management and Insurance at FSU’s Herbert Wertheim College of Business, said Florida’s insurance market appears stronger than it did several years ago, partly because of a quieter storm season and improving reinsurance conditions.

But she said long-term stability will depend on reducing losses through mitigation and resilience efforts.

“One way to control insurance costs is to try to control the losses themselves,” Born said.

Newer buildings are often more resilient than older structures, but insurers still face challenges gathering accurate information about homes and upgrades.

“Some houses that are very old have had roofs replaced two or three times, and they may be much more resilient than an insurance company thinks,” Born said.

She said improving data about construction quality, inspections and mitigation measures could help insurers better understand risk and expand coverage options across the state.

5. Artificial intelligence is beginning to change disaster response

FSU researchers also discussed how artificial intelligence and remote sensing technology are beginning to reshape emergency management and disaster recovery efforts.

Merrick said researchers are exploring how AI tools can help emergency managers make faster decisions, improve damage assessments and allocate resources more efficiently after disasters.

“Emergency managers almost universally are like, yes, we want this tool,” Merrick said.

Still, he said the technology remains in an early stage and raises important questions about accuracy and ethics.

“There’s also an almost universal concern about what happens when the answer that the algorithm or the AI gives is wrong,” Merrick said.

Smith said researchers are also studying how drones, LiDAR imagery and AI analysis could help communities identify infrastructure weaknesses before storms strike.

“I think we’re going to see a trend to begin to integrate that into risk assessment and mitigation planning on the front end,” Smith said.

Visit the FSU News website for a full list of FSU hurricane experts who are available to speak with the media.

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The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30, bringing increased potential for destructive storms.

Florida State University faculty are leaders in the study of forecasting, evacuation, insurance and building resilience against hurricanes. They are available to speak with media through the 2026 hurricane season and beyond.

Four faculty members answered questions during a virtual media briefing.

Forecasting, Formation and Tracking

Mark Bourassa, professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, and associate director of the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
mbourassa@fsu.edu , (850) 644-6923
Bourassa uses on-site and remote (aircraft and satellite-based) observations as well as meteorological models to research air-sea interactions and how satellites measure what is happening on Earth’s surface. He is an expert on the network of global meteorological and oceanographic observations that inform forecasts, and the identification of tropical disturbances, which are possible precursors to tropical cyclones. Bourassa is also a team leader for the NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team.

Chelsea Nam, assistant professor, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science
ccnam@fsu.edu, (850) 644-1787
Nam researches formations and intensification of tropical cyclones and the hazards brought by these storms. She uses radar data from airborne, shipborne and land-based sources to develop high-resolution models tracking cyclones. Nam is a member of the American Meteorological Society Scientific and Technological Activities Commission Committee on Radar Meteorology.

Emily Powell, assistant state climatologist, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies
epowell@coaps.fsu.edu, (850) 644-0719
Powell provides information about the historical and current climate and weather of Florida for application across a range of sectors and industries. Her expertise includes understanding the drivers of seasonal hurricane forecasts, such as the EL Niño/La Niña cycle, providing historical context, and investigating community risks associated with tropical cyclones. Recent projects have focused on historical climate trends and variability, natural hazards and public health risks, and strategies for building community resilience. She also coordinates the Florida Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS), a voluntary-based network of citizen scientists measuring and reporting precipitation from their own backyards.

Community Resilience

Pedro L. Fernández-Cabán, assistant professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
plfernandez@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6251
Fernández-Cabán’s research couples laboratory and field experiments to assess the structural performance of civil infrastructure during windstorm events. His recent work focuses on developing state-of-the-art AI and machine learning models to predict hurricane wind fields and their interaction with coastal landscapes. Fernández-Cabán’s research leverages ground-level anemometric datasets collected during landfalling hurricanes and advanced wind tunnel techniques to better model the impact of coastal storms on civil infrastructure.

Katie Kehoe, assistant professor, College of Fine Arts
mkk22f@fsu.edu
Kehoe primarily works in performance and site-specific installations with a focus on natural disasters such as wildfires and hurricanes. She led a 2024 project that honored the resilience of the rural Florida community of Steinhatchee in the aftermath of hurricanes Idalia and Debby. The project, “Learning from Local Experience to Strengthen Disaster Resilience,” was part of a pilot research initiative that examines how rural communities recover from extreme weather events such as hurricanes.

Paul Niell, associate professor, Department of Art History, College of Fine Arts
pniell@fsu.edu
Niell’s research focuses on the architectural history and cultural landscapes of the Caribbean. Through his scholarship, he has worked closely with indigenous communities to foster conversation about their traditional architecture and construction methods, designed to be resilient against the region’s intense storms. He has taught courses on Caribbean architecture and culture and is available to discuss how historic building practices helped ensure survival for the region’s Native peoples and how we might be able to apply their knowledge to make our communities more resilient to hurricanes today.

Emergency Management

David Merrick, director of the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program; director of the Center for Disaster Risk Policy
dmerrick@fsu.edu , Office: (850) 644-9961, Cell: (850) 980-7098
Merrick has worked in state emergency management for more than 21 years in roles including planning, external affairs and air operations. He developed and oversees the Emergency Management and Homeland Security Program’s Disaster Incident Research Team, which deploys to disaster impact areas to perform field research on disaster and emergency management. This team has deployed to disasters such as hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Michael, Ian, and Helene to support federal, state and local agencies. His research interests include emergency management planning and policy, remote sensing and unmanned aircraft systems, and information technology in emergency management.

Environmental Law

Shi-Ling Hsu, D’Alemberte Professor, College of Law
shsu@law.fsu.edu , (850) 644-0726
Hsu is an expert in the areas of environmental and natural resource law, economics and property. He has published in a variety of legal journals, co-authored the casebook Ocean and Coastal Resources Law and has appeared on the American Public Media radio show “Marketplace.” Before entering academia, he was a senior attorney and economist for the Environmental Law Institute in Washington, D.C.

Evacuation

Eren Ozguven, associate professor, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, director of the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response (RIDER) Center
eozguven@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6146
Ozguven directs the Resilient Infrastructure and Disaster Response Center, which improves the quality of life in Florida and the Southeast by identifying disaster vulnerability, improving infrastructure and investigating ways to minimize negative impacts of natural disasters. His research interests include transportation accessibility, modeling of emergency evacuation operations, artificial intelligence and the simulation of transportation networks. Recent scholarship focuses on the relationships among different infrastructure networks in Florida and how that contributes to disaster preparation.

Maxim A. Dulebenets, associate professor and graduate program director, Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering
mdulebenets@eng.famu.fsu.edu , (850) 410-6621
Dulebenets’ research mainly focuses on operations and optimization. His research group has developed efficient algorithms that can be used to schedule large-scale evacuations in preparation for major natural hazards. His models capture realistic features of emergency evacuation planning, including potential impacts of evacuation settings on evacuees themselves. His recent studies propose new types of optimization models and solution algorithms for emergency evacuation planning under pandemic settings, considering a higher risk of virus spread in overcrowded emergency shelters. 

Risk and Insurance

Patricia Born, Payne H. & Charlotte Hodges Midyette Eminent Scholar in Risk Management & Insurance, Herbert Wertheim College of Business
pborn@wertheim.fsu.edu, (850) 644-7884
Born studies the insurance market structure and performance, professional liability, health insurance and the management of catastrophic risks, such as hurricanes and other natural disasters. She is a past president of the American Risk and Insurance Association and the Risk Theory Society.

Charles Nyce, Dr. William T. Hold Professor of Risk Management and Insurance and chair of the Risk Management/Insurance, Real Estate & Legal Studies Department, Herbert Wertheim College of Business
cnyce@wertheim.fsu.edu , (850) 645-8392
Nyce’s research focuses on catastrophic risk financing. He has written numerous articles on risk management and insurance topics, including title insurance, enterprise risk management, predictive analytics and natural hazards.

Public Health

Chris Uejio, professor, Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
cuejio@fsu.edu
Uejio studies how the physical environment influences human health and well-being. His recent research includes investigations of tropical cyclones, extreme heat and health. Uejio has been quoted in the Orlando Sentinel, Tampa Bay Times, Wall Street Journal, Science Friday and other news outlets about public health issues, including heat waves and hurricanes.

Urban Planning

Dennis Smith, planner in residence, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, College of Social Sciences and Public Policy
djsmith3@fsu.edu
Smith is the director of the Mark & Marianne Barnebey Planning & Development Lab, which uses the academic and professional resources of Florida State University to connect with public and private partners to provide capacity and innovative planning for the sustainable growth and long-term viability of Florida communities. His work has focused on risks to the built environment, including projects for resiliency, transportation modeling, evacuation planning for high-risk areas and vulnerability assessment. He has extensive experience managing state and federal programs and a thorough knowledge of laws relating to land use, transportation and disaster recovery.

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For as long as he can remember, Florida State University sophomore and Presidential Scholar James “LJ” Dunphy has had a fascination with weather and a knack for data-driven science. Now, those interests have led him to be named a recipient of one of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) most competitive awards.

Dunphy, a meteorology and applied mathematics major in the College of Arts and Sciences from Tampa, Florida, has been selected as a recipient of the NOAA Ernest F. Hollings Undergraduate Scholarship. His research strives to make machine learning-based weather forecasts more accurate and less computationally demanding.

“What we’re looking at is trying to reduce those input parameters so we can save time and compute, while actually increasing forecast accuracy,” Dunphy said. “If we can just get a little bit more accurate forecast, we can have more accurate evacuation orders and better prepare the public for scenarios like hurricanes and tornadoes.”

The Hollings Scholarship Program provides awards up to $9,500 a year in financial assistance for two years of full-time study and a 10-week, full-time paid internship at a NOAA facility during the award’s second-year summer.

“LJ has been developing next-generation algorithms for AI-based weather models. I have never encountered a sophomore with such a high level of self-motivation and research talent,” said Zhaohua Wu, professor of meteorology and Dunphy’s research mentor. “Some of his results even surpass those reported in recent papers. I feel very fortunate to have the opportunity to work with him.”

Dunphy’s interest in meteorology was shaped by experiences with severe weather in Florida and beyond.

“Weather, being from Tampa, has always impacted me,” he said. “Hurricanes are kind of the first thing that come to mind and they impact us up here in Tallahassee, too. This is something I’ve always been surrounded by, and something I’ve always been interested in.”

His double major allows him to combine physical science with advanced computation, as machine learning becomes increasingly important in weather forecasting.

“[NOAA’s]  mission of protecting life and property has been a very important part of protecting my community. To be able to have the opportunity to give back is just something I’m really, really grateful for.”

– LJ Dunphy, FSU student and Hollings Scholarship recipient

“What I specifically want to go into in meteorology is the modeling part and forecasting,” Dunphy said. “My applied math major really, really helps with that, with understanding all the algorithms that go into it. So, it gives you the physical understanding from meteorology and the technical computational side from applied math.”

Dunphy applied for the Hollings Scholarship after encouragement from D. Craig Filar, associate dean of Honors, Scholars, and Fellows and director of FSU’s Presidential Scholars Program.

“When we invited LJ to be a part of the Presidential Scholars program, we knew he would do incredibly high caliber work in meteorology,” Filar said. “His recognition as a Hollings Scholar demonstrates his capacity for impactful and innovative work in the field of meteorology, and it speaks to his strong character to want to connect predictive modeling with improved notifications to protect communities. LJ will utilize this opportunity to expand his learning and experience in a manner that will serve his field well; I am incredibly proud of LJ for his recognition with the Hollings Scholarship program.”

As part of the scholarship, Dunphy will complete a 10-week NOAA paid internship next summer after his junior year and provide him with the opportunity to work at nearly any NOAA office nationwide.

“NOAA has always been a big part of my life,” Dunphy said. “Their mission of protecting life and property has been a very important part of protecting my community. To be able to have the opportunity to give back is just something I’m really, really grateful for.”

Dunphy recognized the role FSU’s academic environment and research opportunities played in helping him reach this milestone.

“All the resources that FSU has given me have been really, really immensely helpful,” he said, crediting the Presidential Scholars Program, the Undergraduate Research Opportunity Program (UROP) and mentorship from faculty in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.

Looking forward, Dunphy urges fellow students to aim high and take chances, even if those opportunities seem out of reach.

“The only reason I got to where I am now is just because I put myself out there,” he said. “You’d be really surprised where your abilities take you, especially when you’re really passionate about something. The worst they can say is no.”

For more information about scholarships and fellowships, visit FSU’s Office of National Fellowships.

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Florida State University researchers have discovered how to accurately predict winter weather forecasts months in advance, affording sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy use and public health a longer lead time to prepare for inclement conditions.

The research, which was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, shows a method for forecasting how the stratospheric polar vortex, or SPV, will behave from winter through summer, before winter even starts.

The polar vortex is a band of strong wind that circles the polar regions during wintertime, acting as a barrier that helps keep bitter Arctic air locked near the polar region. Although SPV activity is known to strongly influence winter weather, scientists have struggled to predict its behavior more than two weeks into the immediate future.

“This work shows that a large portion of subseasonal-to-seasonal variability is not random but embedded in the annual evolution of the climate system,” said co-author Ming Cai, a professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.

Current SPV forecasts rely on real-time data, and by turning to the past to accurately predict the future, the research suggests that unusual or extreme weather events are less random than scientists previously believed.

“When the SPV is strong, that cold air tends to stay in the Arctic. When it is weak, cold air is more likely to spill southward into North America and Eurasia,” said Michael Secor, a recent doctoral graduate in meteorology from FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science who led the study. “The further in advance we can accurately predict the vortex, the further in advance we can help people and organizations prepare for weather conditions that affect agriculture, water management, energy use and public health.”

A crucial input for weather

As spring warms the U.S. each year, the Northern Hemisphere’s SPV dissipates, and a new vortex develops around the South Pole. While active, SPV can vary dramatically in strength and shape, influencing global weather events such as Tallahassee’s record-breaking snowfall in January 2025.

Generally, SPV forecasts are constructed by analyzing its day-to-day evolution over a few weeks or average strength during a given month. While effective in the short term, this method loses its accuracy when looking more than two weeks into the future. To overcome this obstacle, Secor stepped back to examine the problem from a different angle.

“Rather than trying to forecast the day-to-day evolution of the vortex, we start with the idea that its broader behavior over the course of the year may be more predictable,” Secor said. “We then use climate patterns such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a temperature-based, recurring pattern in the Pacific Ocean known to influence the vortex, to predict those parameters in advance of winter. From there, we can work backward to reconstruct how the vortex will behave day to day, with an accuracy exceeding the current forecasting systems used by weather agencies.”

In addition to enhancing the precision of winter weather forecasting, Secor’s approach may also improve predictions of related climate phenomena with strong yearly cycles, including ENSO, which has a warm phase called El Niño and cold phase called La Niña. El Niño brings cold, rainy weather to the southern U.S. and suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while spurring warm, dry conditions in the northern states. La Niña generates opposite effects.

Capstone work

The research was also selected for an Editors’ Highlight, a rare distinction bestowed upon fewer than 2 percent of all papers published under the American Geophysical Union’s umbrella of journals.

“Michael’s dissertation research, which represents a significant contribution for someone at this stage of his career, reflects not only his technical expertise but also the ability to rethink a long-standing problem from a fundamentally different perspective,” Cai said.

For Secor, the recognition represents the culmination of years of studying meteorology and working to advance science.

“Publishing my dissertation work feels like reaching an important milestone in a journey that began with a fascination with weather at a young age,” Secor said. “It has made me reflect on how fortunate I have been to not only have this opportunity, but also to have people in my life who encouraged my scientific interest both early on and through my doctoral studies.”

EOAS research faculty Jie Sun was also a co-author of this study.

To learn more about research conducted in FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, visit eoas.fsu.edu.

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As summer approaches and more boaters take to the water, the risk of vessel strikes increases for the sea turtles that inhabit Florida’s coastal environment.

Florida State University Professor Mariana Fuentes helps reduce the impact on sea turtles by studying issues around their conservation and management. Within the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, she leads the Marine Turtle Research, Ecology and Conservation Group, where her team studies sea turtles across every life stage, from nesting beaches to coastal feeding grounds.

A recent study identified places on the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts that expose protected marine turtles to the highest risk of being struck by vessels. Along with partners around the state, she is part of a statewide educational campaign called “Boaters for Turtles” to reduce vessel strikes on sea turtles.

Media interested in speaking with Fuentes on conservation issues around sea turtles can contact her at mfuentes@fsu.edu.

What do we know about high-risk areas for vessel strikes?
Vessel strikes are not isolated incidents. Our research reveals clear and concerning patterns. Injuries from watercraft are found in roughly 25% of stranded sea turtles, with loggerhead and green turtles among the most affected species. Geographic hotspots span heavily trafficked coastal regions, particularly in Florida, Texas and across the Gulf Coast, where boating activity overlaps with critical feeding and nesting habitats. These areas often include coastal passes and nearshore zones where turtles gather in high numbers. It’s a combination of having more boats and also having more turtles in those areas that make it risky.

Seasonal trends further intensify the issue, as peak boating months coincide with key periods in sea turtles’ life cycles, bringing human activity and marine life into closer and more dangerous contact. While previous studies examined localized trends, our research is among the first to analyze vessel strikes across a broad geographic scale.

How does the Boaters for Turtles initiative turn research into real-world impact?
The Boaters for Turtles initiative uses science and community collaboration to help protect Florida’s sea turtles, keystone species that are crucial to a healthy ecosystem. Vessel strikes are a major threat to sea turtles, although there have been initiatives to reduce them through voluntary go-slow zones. We are expanding that work by creating a broader network of voluntary go-slow areas across the state to reduce the threat. We are emphasizing slower speeds in certain areas, highlighting other behaviors boaters can adopt to reduce their impact and working with institutions and county partners across Florida to raise awareness.

What are simple actions people can take to reduce the risk of vessel strikes on sea life?
Small changes in how people operate boats — like slowing down, keeping a careful watch, respecting wildlife zones and giving animals plenty of space — can greatly reduce both the chances of hitting marine life and the severity of injuries if a collision occurs.

What are the next steps in the Boaters for Turtles initiative?
The campaign is built on the data we have collected to identify where go-slow areas are most needed. After launching and implementing additional go-slow zones throughout Florida, the goal is to expand the campaign across the broader Gulf region. Our initial research helped demonstrate how significant vessel strike is as a threat to sea turtles, and now the focus is on scaling solutions and increasing awareness to reduce that impact. The effectiveness of our campaign will be evaluated at the end of the year, so we can learn what worked and what did not work.

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A Florida State University researcher has earned a major grant to research local waterways that affect the everyday lives of Tallahassee residents.

Ming Ye, a professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, has been awarded more than $2.5 million from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection to research groundwater sources in the Wakulla Springs basin and map the basin’s underwater caves, some of which have never been explored.

“All of Florida’s springs are facing critical issues: water level is dropping, amount of flow is decreasing, and water quality is becoming worse,” said Ye, who is also affiliated with the Department of Scientific Computing. “The funding of this project gives us a chance to finally go subsurface to understand both the quantity and quality of the water.”

Wakulla Springs, just a 30-minute drive from FSU’s Tallahassee campus, is a natural exit point for the groundwater of the Floridian aquifer, one of the most productive aquifers in the world, which provides drinking water to nearly 10 million people. The basin comprises a series of caves, conduits and sinkholes that lead into Wakulla Springs, which was named an International Geological Heritage Site in 2024.

By testing water at the springs and mapping the cave systems that lead into it, researchers will better understand how our water is affected by the geological makeup of the caves it passes through and how it’s affected by various other environmental factors, from rising sea levels to pollution.

Ye will partner with the University of South Florida, a cave diving team of the Woodville Karst Plain Project, and SunFish, a Texas-based underwater field services company to train its new technology, the Underwater Autonomous Vehicle, in mapping cave systems beneath Wakulla Springs. While in the cave systems, divers will accompany the UAV — a small, drone-like machine — and “teach” it how to map the caves by guiding it through passages so the machine can work independently in the future.

“Ming is an expert in hydrogeology and using computational approaches to model groundwater transport, which helps him study fluid transport beneath the ground here in Florida,” said Michael Stukel, chair of the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science and a professor of oceanography and environmental science. “He’s a collaborative and interdisciplinary scientist and teacher whose work builds bridges across different curricular groups within EOAS.”

Florida is home to the highest concentration of springs in the world — over 1,000 throughout the state — which are an essential part of the ecosystem. Methods like dye tracing have long been used to map how water moves through the underwater cave system, and taking water samples has provided insights into the chemical makeup of the water.

While divers have charted some of the caves, parts of the basin remain unmapped and unsampled because they’re too narrow or dangerous for humans to reach. The UAV can access these dangerous caves, taking water samples from more areas to provide a comprehensive picture of how different geological compositions in the cave system affect the water that’s eventually consumed and used in our daily lives.

“This area was brought to my attention on day one of my FSU career because it had a worldwide reputation for how difficult it was to map,” said Ye, who began studying Wakulla Springs when he joined FSU’s faculty in Spring 2007. “There are still a lot of research questions regarding these water sources.”

The Wakulla Springs basin is the largest spring basin in Florida, and the cave system stretches approximately 25 miles. The UAV will map the size and shape of the caves while taking water samples to help researchers understand the chemical makeup of the water that will eventually make its way to Wakulla Springs.

“The UAV is a new way to study these systems, and the technology can be expanded to the entire state and to other states with ongoing problems in their springs,” Ye said. “Wakulla Springs is part of our heritage; I bring my daughter to swim in the spring, and I hope it can remain as healthy as possible so future generations can also enjoy it.”

Ye received his doctorate in hydrology from the University of Arizona in 2002 before completing his post-doctoral research with the Hydrology Technical Group in Portland, Oregon, part of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. He joined FSU’s faculty in 2007 as part of the Department of Scientific Computing before transferring to EOAS in 2017. During his time at FSU, Ye has been honored with awards such as the Department of Energy’s Early Career Award, FSU’s Developing Scholar Award, and the Walter L. Huber Civil Engineering Research Prize from the American Society of Civil Engineers. He was elected as a fellow of the Geological Society of America in 2012.

Visit the FSU Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science website to learn more about Ye’s work and research.

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From refugee support in Central Europe to sustainability policy in Scandinavia, Florida State University students shared research shaped by firsthand global experiences at the annual Global Scholars Showcase. 

Thirty-three undergraduates presented independent research and community-based projects Dec. 5, 2025, in the Nancy H. Marcus Great Hall, marking the culmination of a yearlong program that blends international engagement with inquiry. 

Designing an independent research project or international experience is no simple undertaking. At Florida State, the Global Scholars Program helps students turn global interests into structured, ethical research through close mentorship and academic support. 

This year’s cohort presented projects ranging from sustainability culture in Sweden and the Netherlands to Ukrainian refugee support in the Czech Republic and efforts to strengthen information technology (IT) infrastructure at mental health clinics in Peru. 

As part of the Center for Undergraduate Research and Academic Engagement (CRE) at FSU, the Global Scholars Program supports students in designing and carrying out independent, community-based learning opportunities. The program offers undergraduate students the unique chance to engage in experiences tailored to their specific global interests. Through internships, research, and service-learning projects, students can explore questions related to social impact, social justice and social change.  

“Global Scholars is a sort of ‘choose-your-own-adventure program,’ where students are introduced to the idea that research is something that is inherently personal, yet still grounded to academic frameworks,” said Cary Wall, associate director for global programming at the CRE. “Students design their own research in global contexts, engage directly with communities and carry projects from early ideas through public presentation.” 

The program follows a three-phase structure that supports students before, during and after their experiences.  

In the spring semester prior to departure, students enroll in a preparatory course focused on the ethics of community-based work and qualitative research methods.  

The following summer, students participate in their chosen experiences. This can include an in-person or online internship with a social-impact organization domestically or internationally, or a self-directed research project addressing a social issue in a local context.  

The final phase takes place during the fall semester, when students reflect on their work, complete capstone projects and prepare to present their findings at the Global Scholars Showcase.  

“At the heart of Global Scholars is an ethos that urges students to ask questions rather than propose solutions, and to leverage research as a tool for engaging with issues of global and collective importance,” Wall said.  

This year’s cohort conducted research in 13 countries.  

Jordyn Bain, a junior studying International Affairs and Economics, presented her project “From Arrival to Integration: The Role of NGOs in Assisting Ukrainian Refugees in Prague” at the showcase. She studied abroad in Prague, Czech Republic, through International Programs’ Human Rights and Social Work program.  

While there, she interviewed representatives from different non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in the area and found that community isolation, limited career opportunities and insufficient mental health resources most hinder the long-term integration of Ukrainian refugees in Prague. 

“I’d never done a professional research project like this before, so this program really did help me learn how to go about it ethically, especially since I was dealing with people from a different culture,” she said.  

Sebastian Abril, a senior majoring in Psychology and Information Technology, presented his project “The Health, Technology, and the Passion of a Community: Modernizing Peruvian Healthcare” at the showcase. He traveled to Cusco, Peru over the summer to intern at a mental health clinic through Proyecto Peru, an organization dedicated to supporting sustainable development in the country.  

While there, he found that health care workers at the clinic were spending unnecessary amounts of time doing tasks that could be significantly expedited with digital services. He found that an increase in digital infrastructure, government policy and education could enhance the efficiency of the clinic.  

“I like research and I like traveling, and this felt like the perfect blend of the two,” Abril said. “You really can design your own research, but you always know that they (the Global Scholars Program) are right there to push you, keep you going and make sure that you’re on the right track.” 

Kaetlyn Patnaude, a junior studying Environmental Science and Urban Planning, presented her project “Allemansratten” at the showcase, which looked at environmental justice in Sweden and the Netherlands, focusing on how cultural values and citizen mindsets shape these nations’ approaches to sustainability.  

She started in Sweden, serving as a field technician at the Abisko Scientific Research Station. Located roughly 124 miles north of the Arctic Circle, the station hosts about 500 scientists annually who conduct research in ecology, biology and meteorology. Patnaude found this opportunity with the help of Jeff Chanton, Robert O. Lawton Distinguished Professor in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. 

In Sweden, Patnaude conducted interviews to explore how cultural values shape relationships with nature and perspectives on paths toward sustainable cities. The phrase “Allemansratten” kept coming up, a Swedish saying meaning “every man’s right” to nature which refers to a cultural principle allowing free access to uncultivated nature. The phrase made Patnaude seek to further understand the shift from cultural concept to policy, so, she enrolled in an urban planning course at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands.  

Next, Patnaude went to the Netherlands and enrolled in Delft University of Technology’s “Summer School Planning and Design for the Just City.” The program combines spatial planning, urban design and environmental technology to tackle issues of spatial justice, sustainability, climate adaptation and water management in urban transitions to sustainability.  

For Patnaude, the course helped her understand how urban planning projects in the Netherlands influence environmental governance and urban sustainability transitions.  

“I really learned a lot about communication and talking to people from different cultures,” Patnaude said. “I feel like I can talk to anyone now and approach interactions with curiosity.” 

Natalia Arroyo, who graduated with her degree in Social Work and Political Science last semester, presented her project “Bridging Communities in Tallahassee: Through Education, Refugee Support and Justice” at the showcase. Focusing on how education, refugee resettlement and legal advocacy work together to strengthen community systems, Arroyo drew from three different experiences to combine the lessons learned. 

From working with the International Rescue Committee to supporting refugees in Tallahassee to serving as an early childhood educator for underprivileged kids and helping victims of violent crimes through the State Attorney’s office, Arroyo found one common theme: that compassion in the structures of social services is key to creating lasting change.  

“Day-to-day things might be a little more difficult for other individuals,” she said. “Being empathetic and an advocate in the workforce, no matter what you decide to go into, can really make a difference.” 

For more information about the Global Scholars Program, visit cre.fsu.edu/global/globalscholars. To read the Global Scholars blogposts, visit hsfhouseblogs.fsu.edu/blog/global-scholars/.

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Florida State University oceanographers have discovered a significant connection between small-scale microbial processes and ecosystem-wide dynamics, offering new insights into the mechanisms driving marine carbon storage.

Heather Forrer, a Ph.D. graduate from FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science (EOAS), led new research spanning multiple ocean regions that found upper ocean ecosystem conditions, such as nutrient availability and microbial interactions, play a major role in shaping the composition of carbon-rich particles sinking into the deep ocean. The particles, surprisingly, continued to carry the imprint of surface ecosystem dynamics even at great depths, shaping how carbon is ultimately sequestered. The research was published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 

Because the ocean is Earth’s largest active carbon sink, pulling carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it for long periods, understanding these processes has important implications for the global carbon cycle.  

“This work was central to my dissertation, representing years of experimentation, perseverance and collaboration,” said Forrer, who earned a doctorate in oceanography from FSU last year. “It feels like a huge personal milestone and great contribution to the broader field, offering a new approach to longstanding, globally relevant questions.” 

On land, plants absorb carbon dioxide, converting it into organic matter and oxygen through photosynthesis. This same process is performed by tiny, ocean-dwelling plants called phytoplankton, which establish the base of the complex marine food web. The organic matter produced in this system ranges from microscopic particles unable to be seen with the naked eye to particles as thick as a nickel.

“Some of these particles sink from the sunlit surface into the ocean’s depths, effectively removing carbon from the atmosphere and storing it for decades to millennia,” Forrer said. “However, as this organic matter descends, it undergoes complex transformations that have long puzzled scientists. Understanding these changes is critical, as the rate and extent to which they occur determine how long this carbon is locked away.” 

These transformations are driven by microorganisms, or microbes, which influence organic matter’s sinking rate by reshaping or degrading the particles. The research team collected sinking particles from the Gulf, California Current Ecosystem and tropical Indian Ocean to examine molecular changes as they descend into the deep ocean.

MAGLAB RESEARCH
“Heather is an incredibly driven and intelligent early career scientist,” said Michael Stukel, EOAS chair and study co-author. “This publication is crucial to understanding the biological carbon pump and places our department at the vanguard of the field. It also highlights the incredible science that can be done in collaboration with other FSU departments and centers, such as the FSU-headquartered National High Magnetic Field Laboratory, which allowed us to characterize organic matter in sinking particles at a previously unseen level.” 

Using the National MagLab’s advanced ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometer — which harnesses a powerful magnetic field to identify molecules with extreme precision — the researchers were able to, for the first time, directly compare the molecular composition of sinking particles collected in different ocean regions at different depths. They found that in nutrient-rich regions like California’s upwelling region, where particles are produced and sink quickly, more “fresh” carbon reached greater depths with very little molecular change, suggesting a strong carbon sequestration pathway. By contrast, nutrient-poor regions like the Gulf feature slower-sinking particles, which are more extensively processed by microbes, showing greater molecular changes since formation and contributing less effectively to carbon storage.  

“These topics, as foreign as they may seem, are intimately connected to our everyday lives,” Forrer said. “The air we breathe and Earth’s climate are largely controlled by the ocean and the processes investigated in this publication. By better understanding these fine-scale processes, we can gain a clearer picture of how the ocean functions today and more accurately predict how resilient these marine carbon storage pathways are in a warming world.” 

COLLABORATION AND SUPPORT
In addition to Stukel, co-authors include FSU professor of oceanography and environmental science Robert Spencer; Amy Holt, an FSU alumna and postdoctoral fellow at the University of Alaska Southeast; Sven Kranz, an associate professor of BioSciences at Rice University; Amy McKenna, an analytical chemist with the National MagLab’s Ion Cyclotron Resonance Facility and Colorado State University; and Huan Chen, a National MagLab research faculty member. 

This research was supported by the National Science Foundation-funded California Current Ecosystem Long-Term Ecological Research (CCE LTER) and Bluefin Larvae in Oligotrophic Ocean Foodwebs, Investigation of Nitrogen to Zooplankton (BLOOFINZ-IO) projects and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s RESTORE Science Program, named for the Resources and Ecosystems Sustainability, Tourist Opportunities, and Revived Economies of the Gulf States Act and established to support the Gulf ecosystem’s long-term sustainability. 

To learn more about research conducted in FSU’s Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, visit eoas.fsu.edu.

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When militia attacks disrupted shipping lanes in the Red Sea, few imagined the ripple effects would reach the clouds over the South Atlantic. But for Florida State University atmospheric scientist Michael Diamond, the rerouting of cargo ships offered a rare opportunity to clarify a pressing climate question — How much do cleaner fuels change how clouds form? 

In research published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Diamond and FSU Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science graduate student Lilli Boss showed that new fuel regulations that cut sulfur by about 80 percent also lowered cloud droplet formation by about 67 percent compared with earlier, dirtier fuels.

“The unexpected rerouting of global shipping gave us a unique opportunity to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions, reducing the largest source of uncertainty in global climate projections,” said Diamond. “When your ‘laboratory’ is the atmosphere, it’s not every day you can run experiments like this one. It was an invaluable opportunity to get a more accurate picture of what’s happening on Earth.” 

The findings could help refine global climate models, offering policymakers and scientists more accurate climate predictions and insight into how environmental policy can protect human health. 

CLEANER FUEL, FEWER CLOUDS
In January 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandated a major reduction in sulfur content in marine fuels to decrease air pollution. Aerosols from ship emissions, especially sulfate, influence cloud formation and brightness, which in turn affect Earth’s energy balance. Referred to as aerosol-cloud interactions, these particles cause clouds to form with smaller, more numerous droplets, making them brighter and thus more reflective of sunlight. This creates a cooling effect, which has historically masked about one-third of the warming caused by greenhouse gases.  

But air pollution’s effects are marked by huge uncertainty and variability. Unlike long-lived greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, which linger in the atmosphere for centuries, aerosols stay only for days or weeks. This short lifespan, coupled with the unpredictable nature of clouds, makes aerosol-cloud interactions the single largest source of uncertainty in global climate projections. 

Diamond’s previous research had shown that clouds in major shipping corridors were forming with larger and less numerous droplets after IMO 2020. Scientists are currently debating what role the resulting increase in sunlight absorbed over the ocean played in the 2023 and 2024 marine heatwaves in the Atlantic Ocean. Different groups also disagree about how much cloudiness declined after IMO 2020, with estimates ranging from a relatively small 10% change to a massive 80% decrease. 

A ‘NATURAL’ EXPERIMENT
Beginning in November 2023, attacks in the Bab al-Mandab Strait caused a sharp decline in Red Sea traffic and a surge in shipping around the Cape of Good Hope. As a result, the South Atlantic region — which is highly susceptible to ship emissions because of its persistent, low-lying clouds — experienced a sudden, massive increase in ship volume. 

Because the rerouting was driven by conflict rather than weather or policy, researchers could observe how clouds changed in direct response to ship emissions alone. Such clear cause-and-effect situations are almost impossible to create in controlled experiments, making this a valuable natural test case. 

Satellite data revealed a clear increase in nitrogen dioxide, or NO2, over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean. NO2, a gas emitted by ship engines that was unaffected by the 2020 IMO fuel regulations, served as a reliable indicator of increased ship activity, confirming a surge in traffic through the region and allowing scientists to directly compare pre- and post-regulation conditions under heavy ship traffic.

KEY FINDINGS
With roughly twice as many ships in operation during 2024, the overall impact on cloud droplet formation was only slightly weaker than before IMO 2020. However, by comparing NO2, which was unaffected by the sulfur-reducing regulations, with cloud droplet number, which is sensitive to sulfur, Diamond and Boss found a 67% reduction  in ships’ cloud-altering abilities after the IMO regulations went into effect. Their result provides further strong evidence that cleaner fuels have reduced shipping’s influence on cloud formation and helps to quantify the relationship between pollution and cloud response, which is an important constraint for improving climate simulations. 

WHY IT MATTERS
Quantifying how clouds respond to changes in aerosols remains one of the biggest challenges in studying the climate. 

This research helps reduce the error bars that currently limit estimates of Earth’s energy balance. By narrowing this uncertainty, policymakers can make better-informed decisions about balancing environmental regulations with long-term climate goals. These findings also highlight the complex trade-offs in air-quality policy, showing how actions aimed at protecting human health can simultaneously reshape the planet’s climate response. 

Although these aerosols temporarily cool the planet, this comes at the cost of human health. Exposure to sulfur particles, potent air pollutants, is linked to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. The IMO regulation is estimated to have already prevented tens of thousands of premature deaths.

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