FSU playing major role in monitoring, assessment of Gulf oil spill

As oil from a blown-out well continues to spill into the Gulf of Mexico, researchers from Florida’s public and private universities have joined together to offer their combined expertise on myriad issues related to the spill and its aftermath. These issues include measuring and modeling the magnitude and trajectory of the spill, providing information on its potential and actual ecological impacts, and evaluating the possible effects on regional tourism and the overall economy.

The Florida State University was recently asked by Frank Brogan, chancellor of the State University System, to coordinate the activities of the new Oil Spill Academic Task Force, a statewide effort to bring some of academia’s best minds together to provide assistance to local, state and federal agencies in dealing with the spill and its aftermath. The task force will be governed by a steering committee composed of key contacts from each of the participating institutions.

“We have talented researchers at universities throughout our state who can help the Florida Department of Environmental Protection and federal agencies as they wrestle with the complex issues of controlling an oil spill and managing a recovery,” said FSU President Eric J. Barron. “I am pleased that FSU is working with our university partners in bringing this talent to bear on this national environmental and economic problem.”

In fields ranging from the earth sciences to marine biology, risk management, tourism and environmental law, Florida State University researchers are making their knowledge available to help predict the movements of the oil spill and address the myriad issues surrounding it. Here is a sampling of what some of those researchers are doing:

Measuring the Extent of the Oil Spill

Professor Ian MacDonald is a biological oceanographer in Florida State’s new Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science who uses imaging and geographic information system (GIS) techniques to investigate the ecology of deep-sea hydrocarbon seeps. Using U.S. Coast Guard aerial overflight maps of the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, he has offered new calculations that dramatically revise the original estimates of the spill’s size — and have attracted the attention of national and international news media.

According to MacDonald’s data, an average flow rate of perhaps 1 million gallons of oil (26,000 barrels) per day is spewing from the destroyed well — five times more than original estimates. MacDonald’s research suggests that perhaps 13 million gallons of oil have been spilled into the Gulf of Mexico as of May 7. By comparison, the oft-quoted official estimate for the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska is 11 million gallons.

MacDonald used the Coast Guard images to estimate the total surface area of the oil spill, then applied standard guidelines to measure the thickness of the oil itself. By combining the two, he was able to provide a revised estimate showing that the oil spill is far worse than originally believed.

Following the Ocean’s Currents

Developing a better understanding of the physical processes at work in the Gulf of Mexico is crucial in predicting where the oil spill is likely to go. Steven Morey, an associate research scientist in the university’s Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), has worked with colleagues to create near-real-time animations of surface currents from one of the best forecast models for the Gulf of Mexico. That forecast model is run by the Navy in collaboration with FSU.

“This model should also give us a better forecast of surface currents for forecasting where the oil slick will go,” Morey said. The animation will be updated with the latest seven-day forecast every night. It can viewed by visiting http://oilspill.fsu.edu, clicking on the Projections link and then clicking on “Latest HYCOM 7-Day Forecast Surface Currents.”

At COAPS, Morey also analyzes deepwater processes over steep topography that can affect oil exploration and extraction activities as part of research funded by the petroleum industry. He explores these problems by analyzing observational data and by performing experiments with numerical ocean models.

Assessing the Damage to Wildlife

Assessing potential damage to wildlife along the Gulf Coast, as well as analyzing the extent of the damage after the oil makes landfall, will fall to the Oil Spill Academic Task Force’s Marine Ecology and Fisheries Assessment team.

“What the team has done so far is reach across the State University System and across state lines to tap into the wealth of expertise needed to deal with this catastrophic event,” said Felicia Coleman, director of the Florida State University Coastal & Marine Laboratory, which is located on the Gulf of Mexico in Wakulla County.

“This group will assist the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission in any way it can to help conduct pre-spill assessments of coastal habitats at risk, and should (or perhaps when) the need arise, conduct post-spill assessments of the damage,” Coleman said. “In addition, we are cooperating with commercial fishermen and other experts to do what we can to offset the damage.”

Calculating Property and Liability Risk

When the Florida Catastrophic Storm Risk Management Center was created by the Florida Legislature in 2007, it was hurricanes that were viewed as the most likely large-scale threat to Florida.

“The center’s main mission is to engage in research and promote collaboration with state and federal agencies and other universities in areas such as storm forecasting, building construction, disaster mitigation and risk management,” said Lorilee Schneider, the center’s associate director. “With regard to the oil spill, we’ll be looking at property and liability insurance issues. The center also will coordinate with COAPS to examine the effects of possible hurricanes and other storms on the spill.”

More than a half-dozen faculty members from FSU’s Department of Risk Management/Insurance, Real Estate & Business Law, as well as affiliated faculty from the fields of geography, meteorology and civil engineering, among others, contribute their expertise to the multidisciplinary Florida Catastrophic Storm Risk Management Center.

Measuring the Effects on Tourism

With 80.3 million visitors in 2009, Florida is the top travel destination in the world. And tourism is the state’s largest industry, with an economic impact of more than $65 billion on Florida’s economy.

At Florida State, Professor Mark Bonn is one of the foremost experts on the effects that hurricanes have on the tourism industry and the economy in Florida. He has conducted hundreds of research projects addressing the importance of tourism to Florida and its economy through visitor spending. Now Bonn, the Robert H. Dedman Professor of Service Management in FSU’s Dedman School of Hospitality, is analyzing the effect that the oil spill is having on tourism, and how the industry is responding.

His expertise includes consumer-behavior market research, strategic planning, ecotourism and sustainability, coastal zone management, regional tourism development, economic value and forecasting. As but one tangible sign of his expertise on tourism-related issues, he is the only academic ever elected to the Florida Tourism Hall of Fame.